S&P Improves Bahrain’s Outlook

General view of Bahrain World Trade Center is seen during early evening hours in Manama, Bahrain, May 2, 2020. REUTERS/Hamad I Mohammed/File Photo
General view of Bahrain World Trade Center is seen during early evening hours in Manama, Bahrain, May 2, 2020. REUTERS/Hamad I Mohammed/File Photo
TT
20

S&P Improves Bahrain’s Outlook

General view of Bahrain World Trade Center is seen during early evening hours in Manama, Bahrain, May 2, 2020. REUTERS/Hamad I Mohammed/File Photo
General view of Bahrain World Trade Center is seen during early evening hours in Manama, Bahrain, May 2, 2020. REUTERS/Hamad I Mohammed/File Photo

S&P Global Ratings has revised Bahrain's outlook to 'stable' from 'negative' on the back of new fiscal reforms aimed at improving non-oil revenues and cutting state spending, the ratings agency said in a statement.

Rated below investment grade, Bahrain was bailed out to avoid a credit crunch in 2018 with a $10 billion package from wealthy neighbors, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE.

That money was linked to a set of fiscal reforms, but after the coronavirus crisis strained its finances, Bahrain in September postponed plans to balance its budget by two years and announced plans to increase a value-added tax.

"The Bahraini government recently announced additional fiscal reforms to strengthen non-oil revenue and rationalize expenditure. These measures, along with the more supportive oil price environment, should improve the sovereign's fiscal position", S&P said in a statement this weekend.

The agency said it expects the government to benefit from additional financial support from its Gulf neighbors, if needed.

Bahrain will double value-added tax to 10 percent next year, a move which S&P estimated could contribute receipts of about 3 percent of gross domestic product in the next few years, up from about 1.7 percent this year.

The Gulf state is also planning to rationalize operational government expenditure and social subsidies in 2023 and 2024, a move which shifts the focus of its reforms more on the spending side than on raising non-oil revenues.

"We believe there is higher implementation risk in expenditure rationalization as the delicate political and social environment on the island, which has constrained the government's efforts, persists", S&P said.



Riyadh Real Estate Awaits Impact of Measures to Curb Price Surge

Residential and commercial properties in the Saudi capital Riyadh (Reuters)
Residential and commercial properties in the Saudi capital Riyadh (Reuters)
TT
20

Riyadh Real Estate Awaits Impact of Measures to Curb Price Surge

Residential and commercial properties in the Saudi capital Riyadh (Reuters)
Residential and commercial properties in the Saudi capital Riyadh (Reuters)

The Saudi real estate market is currently in a state of cautious anticipation, driven by unprecedented decisions and measures announced by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

These steps aim to increase the supply of properties and restore balance in the market to address the rising costs of land and rental prices.

Data from the market shows a stagnation in property purchases by citizens, as they await the impact of these measures, hoping they will bring stability to property prices in Riyadh and lower costs.

In March, the Crown Prince directed the implementation of a series of regulatory measures, including lifting restrictions on the development of over 81 square kilometers of land north of Riyadh.

This move is expected to deliver tens of thousands of affordable residential plots annually to citizens, following a significant rise in property prices in Riyadh.

According to Saudi Minister of Municipal and Rural Affairs and Housing Majid Al-Hogail, these measures will add between 10,000 and 40,000 plots of land annually in the northern region of Riyadh, ensuring a better balance between supply and demand in the market.

The Crown Prince has already donated 1 billion riyals to the National Developmental Housing Foundation (Sakan), represented by Jood Eskan, to support home ownership for eligible families across Saudi Arabia.

The housing projects funded by this donation are to be completed within 12 months and executed by national companies.

The Crown Prince also ordered monthly progress reports to ensure that all residential units are delivered within one year.

Real estate market experts told Asharq Al-Awsat that current market data reveals a stagnation in property purchases by citizens, as they await the impact of recent policy changes and their potential to restore balance to the market.

Many real estate companies and agencies have observed a decline in sales activity, with property marketers facing difficulties in encouraging buyers who prefer to delay decisions until the effects of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s directives take shape.

Real estate expert and marketer Abdullah Al-Mousa told Asharq Al-Awsat that the current stagnation in property prices in Riyadh is a direct result of the Crown Prince’s initiatives to increase property supply, which aim to restore price equilibrium following the recent surge in real estate costs.

He views the decline as a positive step toward balancing supply and demand, contributing to a more sustainable and fair market for all stakeholders.

Al-Mousa anticipates that this stagnation will persist until all government directives are fully implemented in the coming months.

He noted that, with plans to increase the property supply, the market could experience gradual recovery in the long term, especially given Riyadh’s continued population and economic growth.

The expert highlighted that several factors may sustain the current stagnation, including high interest rates, which reduce citizens’ purchasing power, the oversupply of properties relative to demand, and global economic fluctuations that could affect investments.

However, he emphasized that Riyadh’s ongoing population growth, improving national economy, rising per capita income, large-scale infrastructure projects like the Riyadh Metro, and continued government support for housing programs are expected to drive the recovery of the real estate market.

Al-Mousa also predicted further improvement in the sector as policies are implemented and market conditions are monitored.