There are two kinds of negotiations with Iran for a nuclear deal. We have the negotiations of the meeting in Vienna and what I called the Vienna meeting’s shadow negotiations. The former is attended by Iran, the US and Western powers.
As for the negotiations in the Vienna meeting’s shadows, they are an effort by Israel to convince the United States and Western powers that the time has come to take decisive steps against Iran, from economic sanctions to military strikes.
Of course, we cannot rely on what the administration is now saying, but we must read developments according to the statements being issued and the information coming out while keeping in mind that the United States has been adopting a lenient position to ensure that a deal with Iran is reached, whatever the cost.
The shadow negotiations led by Israel put pressure on both Washington and Tehran. It seems that Israel is making progress on this front, as the Israeli defense minister and the director of the Mossad are visiting Washington to discuss the deal.
According to Israeli media reports, the minister and the Mossad chief will try to push Washington to take military action against Iranian interests, not necessarily targeting nuclear facilities, to send a message that the US administration is serious about preventing Iran from reaching the “nuclear threshold.”
All that comes after Reuters quoted a senior US official, without naming him, as saying that American and Israeli defense leaders would discuss the prospect of military exercises in preparation for destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities if the worst-case scenario played out and diplomacy failed.
There is also the declaration by the White House, according to the AFP, that President Biden has begun making “preparations” from the possibility of diplomatic means failing. Thus, these shadow negotiations are becoming very serious.
All right, what about our region and Iran? Where can it strike Iranian interests? Those following the joint statements issued during Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visits to Gulf Cooperation Council countries will find that their stance on Iran is aligned.
The Gulf countries are making clear demands regarding the need to reach a serious nuclear deal, preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, and the need to confront Iran’s regional projects and ballistic missile program.
Regarding Iran and strikes to undermine its interests without targeting nuclear facilities, it is clear that Iran has adopted a policy of negotiating the nuclear issue on the brink and that its eyes are more focused on the inside than they are on Israel or US because the regime is incapable of being moderate.
Iran’s interests in the region are spread across four countries, what Karim Sadjadpour calls the axis of aggrieved nations, with militias being present in Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon.
Recent reports have claimed that Israel has destroyed two-thirds of the Iranian weapons in Syria, and so Iranian interests are expected to be the first target, with targets in Yemen and Iraq likely to show the seriousness of its effort to confront Iran.
Nonetheless, we cannot overlook what Israel is doing in Iran itself, whether it is military or intelligence operations. And so, we are looking at what I call the negotiations in the Vienna meeting’s shadows, and their outcomes might emerge faster than those expected from the Vienna meeting itself.
