Drone Race in the Middle East

An Iranian drone (AFP)
An Iranian drone (AFP)
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Drone Race in the Middle East

An Iranian drone (AFP)
An Iranian drone (AFP)

Over the past two decades, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has been characterized by deep divisions, political turmoil, and inadequate governance.

Geopolitical competition and increased ambitions of some countries (Iran, Israel, Turkey) were reflected in bold and unilateral foreign policies that in many cases exceeded longtime restrictions imposed by partnerships with foreign powers and conflicted with regional agendas.

In the MENA region, drones have become an essential part of the political and security dynamics and one of the aspects of competition between the region’s countries.

Drones have reached unprecedented levels of sophistication, expanding their use from a specialized military tool available only to Israel and the US in 2001 to the relatively cheap, high-tech weapons in the arsenal of a growing number of countries.

The global drone market is expected to attract nearly $100 billion in investment over the current decade, with a 30% increase in spending on research, development, and procurement. This underlines the growing strategic importance of drones within the defense systems of many countries.

Drones, or Combat Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UCAVs), have captured the attention of many governments in the Middle East and made headlines due to their advancing role in the region’s conflicts, including Libya, Syria, and Iraq.

Currently, thirteen countries in the region operate combat drones or are in the process of acquiring them. Four of these countries are at the point of exporting their drones to regional or foreign countries.

Turkey

Turkey’s rapid and dynamic rise to the club of countries that owns armed drones was remarkable, not because of its leadership in using these drones in conventional combat operations, but rather for the major role that Ankara may play in the global market in the near future.

Among Turkey’s trading partners in the region are Qatar, Tunisia, and the Libyan Government of National Accord in Tripoli.

Doha recently received the first batch of six Bayraktar TB2 combat aircraft and three ground control stations, according to a deal signed in 2018.

Meanwhile, Tunisia signed in early March 2020 a contract worth $240 million with the Turkish Aerospace Industry to purchase six (Anka-S) combat drones with three control stations and training services.

Moreover, Azerbaijan signed a contract to purchase combat drones from Turkey.

Baku wants to deploy the acquired drones against Armenian forces in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. This was made possible after the Azerbaijani parliament recently approved bilateral military cooperation with Turkey.

Iran

Iran and Arab countries are racing to develop their drone capabilities. Chinese platforms, especially the Wing Loong series produced by the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group since 2015, are popularly used by Iran.

The (Cai - Hong - CH 4B) produced by China’s State-owned Aerospace Science & Technology Corp is also being used.

These models have already been used in special operations. In parallel, some countries are boosting their local industries and have invested in local models.

Iran has made significant progress with its drone technology. A 2019 report by the US Defense Intelligence Agency describes drones as “Iran’s fastest-growing air capability.”

In Tehran’s military strategy, drones represented a cost-effective solution in terms of enhancing information-gathering, reconnaissance, attack capabilities and compensating for traditional structural deficiencies.

Israel

Israel has a leading position among the dominant countries in the field of drones, and it may come second only to the US.

Until 2014, Israel remained the world’s leading exporter of drones, accounting for 61% of global exports.

The most prominent Israeli drone (MALE), of the (Heron - TP) class, can perform strategic missions at an altitude of more than 13,000 meters and a flight time of more than 30 hours, thanks to a variety of sensors and munitions with a maximum payload of up to 2700 kg.

This aircraft can operate via satellite with an automatic take-off and landing system. It can also operate autonomously in harsh weather conditions and adapt to emergency missions.

It’s noteworthy that Israel does not sell its advanced aircraft to any of the countries in the MENA region due to constant concerns about the threat posed by its Arab neighbors.

In other words, Israel is absent from the regional market for drones, and its exports target European countries like Germany, Britain, and Latin American and Asian countries, where India tops the list in terms of spending.



What Has Assad’s Fall Revealed about the Captagon Drug Trade in Syria?

 A Syrian member of the opposition shows amphetamine pills known as Captagon hidden inside an electrical component at a warehouse where the drug was manufactured before the fall of Bashar al-Assad's government at a facility in Douma city, outskirts of Damascus, Syria, Friday, Dec. 13, 2024. (AP)
A Syrian member of the opposition shows amphetamine pills known as Captagon hidden inside an electrical component at a warehouse where the drug was manufactured before the fall of Bashar al-Assad's government at a facility in Douma city, outskirts of Damascus, Syria, Friday, Dec. 13, 2024. (AP)
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What Has Assad’s Fall Revealed about the Captagon Drug Trade in Syria?

 A Syrian member of the opposition shows amphetamine pills known as Captagon hidden inside an electrical component at a warehouse where the drug was manufactured before the fall of Bashar al-Assad's government at a facility in Douma city, outskirts of Damascus, Syria, Friday, Dec. 13, 2024. (AP)
A Syrian member of the opposition shows amphetamine pills known as Captagon hidden inside an electrical component at a warehouse where the drug was manufactured before the fall of Bashar al-Assad's government at a facility in Douma city, outskirts of Damascus, Syria, Friday, Dec. 13, 2024. (AP)

Since the fall of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, industrial-scale manufacturing facilities of Captagon have been uncovered around the country, which experts say helped flourish a $10 billion annual global trade in the highly addictive drug.

Among the locations used for manufacturing the drug were the Mazzeh air base in Damascus, a car-trading company in Latakia and a former potato chips factory on the outskirts of Damascus.

The factory that once produced the crunchy snack in the suburb of Douma under the name, Captain Corn, was seized by government forces in 2018.

"Assad’s collaborators controlled this place. After the regime fell... I came here and found it on fire," Firas al-Toot, the original owner of the factory, told The Associated Press. "They came at night and lit the drugs on fire but couldn’t burn everything."

"From here, Captagon pills emerged to kill our people," said Abu Zihab, an activist with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the main group now ruling the country, as his group gave access to journalists to the site.

Syria's nearly 14-year-old civil war fragmented the country, crumbled the economy and created fertile ground for the production of the drug. Militias, warlords and the Assad government transformed Captagon from a small-scale operation run by small criminal groups into a billion-dollar industrial revenue stream.

The recent ousting of Assad has disrupted these networks and has given a closer look at its operations — revealing the workings of a war economy that sustained Assad’s power over Syria. Experts say the change in Syria might create an opportunity to dismantle the Captagon industry.

How did Syria build its Captagon empire?

Captagon was first developed in Germany in the 1960s as a prescription stimulant for conditions like narcolepsy. It was later outlawed due to heart issues and its addictive properties.

Its amphetamine-like effects made it popular in the Middle East among both elites and fighters, as it enhanced focus and reduced fatigue.

Assad's government recognized an opportunity in the cheaply manufactured drug amid Syria’s economic turmoil and the heavy sanctions imposed on it.

Captagon is produced through a simple chemical process that involves mixing amphetamine derivatives with excipients to form tablets, typically in makeshift labs.

The Captagon trade began industrializing around 2018-2019 as the Assad regime — and other armed groups in Syria -- invested in production facilities, warehouses and trafficking networks. This allowed Syria to emerge as the largest producer of Captagon globally, with some production also occurring in Lebanon.

Most seized consignments of Captagon originated from Syria, according to data by the New Lines Captagon Trade Project, an initiative of the New Lines Institute think tank.

Evidence of the Assad regime’s sponsorship of the Captagon industry is overwhelming, the report published in May said. The Security Office of the 4th Armored Division of the Syrian Arab Army, headed by Bashar al-Assad’s brother Maher oversaw operations and created a coordinated production system, the report added.

Where and how was Captagon smuggled?

Captagon was smuggled across the border using various methods, hiding Captagon in trucks, cargo shipments and goods. Some shipments are concealed in food, electronics and construction materials to evade detection.

The primary smuggling routes were Syria’s porous borders with Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq, from which the drug is distributed throughout the region. Some were also shipped from Latakia port.

In Lebanon, the Captagon trade has flourished, particularly near the Syrian border and in the Bekaa Valley. Lebanese authorities struggled to curb the flow of Captagon from Syria, which analysts say was facilitated by the Hezbollah group, a key Assad ally.

Following the discovery of crates of fruit meticulously packed with bundles of the drug hidden among pomegranates and oranges, Saudi Arabia and the UAE implemented bans on Lebanese agricultural products.

Captagon has also found its way into international markets, reaching as far as Southeast Asia and parts of Europe.

How much revenue did it produce for the Assad regime?

The annual global trade in Captagon has an estimated value of $10 billion, with the ousted Assad family's annual profit reaching around $2.4 billion, according to Caroline Rose, director of the New York-based New Lines Institute Captagon Trade Project.

"Seeing the uncovering of so many industrial-scale facilities affiliated with the regime was shocking but not surprising. There was extensive evidence linking key regime-aligned cronies and Assad family members to the trade," said Rose, whose organization tracks all publicly recorded Captagon seizures and lab raids. The discovery of the facilities, she said, confirmed "the concrete relationship between Captagon and the former regime."

The exact number of factories in Syria remains unclear, but experts and HTS members estimate that there are likely hundreds spread throughout the country.

The future of Captagon in post-Assad Syria

Assad has turned Syria into "the largest Captagon factory in the world," HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa stated in a victory speech at Damascus’s Umayyad Mosque on Dec. 8. "Today, Syria is being cleansed, thanks to the grace of Almighty God."

While Assad and his circle may have been the primary beneficiaries, there is also evidence that Syrian opposition groups were involved in drug smuggling, opposition groups, local militias and organized crime networks manufactured and smuggled the drug to finance their operations, analysts say.

"Likely, we will see a short-term supply reduction in the trade, with a decline in the size and frequency of seizures as industrial-scale production is largely halted. However, criminal actors are innovative, likely seeking out new locations to engage in production and smuggling, particularly as demand levels remain stable," Rose said.

They may also "seek out alternative illicit trades to engage in instead," she said.

In addition to dismantling the Captagon trade, the country's transitional government should "establish programs for economic development that will incentivize Syrians to participate in the country’s formal, licit economic sphere," Rose said.