After Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s meeting in Beijing last Friday, China and Russia declared that the two countries “oppose any future expansion of NATO.”
They also decried the influence of the US and the role that NATO and the AUKUS defense alliance have played in Europe and Asia, saying that they have played a destabilizing role, according to the AFP.
They decried the negative impact of the United States’ strategy in the Indian and Pacific Ocean regions on security and stability as well, and they expressed their “concern” about the establishment of a military alliance between the US, UK, and Australia in 2020.
The Chinese-Russian declaration demonstrates that both have officially taken the position that their countries’ stances should be aligned and that China backs its Russian ally against the West, specifically Washington, regarding the Ukrainian crisis. Remarkably, the Chinese newspaper Global Times said that “the close relationship between China and Russia represents the world order’s last line of defense.”
And so, the question here becomes: Are we looking at a new world order? I asked a diplomacy expert, especially since one of the scenarios that could play out during the Russian Ukrainian crisis is Russia’s attack on Ukraine coinciding with Chinese action against Taiwan. If it were to unfold, this scenario could put the international community in general and the United States in particular in a tough spot, leading the world to courses that could be hard to predict.
The diplomacy expert says: “Yes, we are looking at the contours of a new world order being formed... And yes, the possibility of Russia and China simultaneously taking action against Ukraine and Taiwan respectively is among the potential outcomes, though I think it is less likely because of the timing.”
The expert adds that the current world order is facing a genuine crisis because: “The current strategic alliances are born out of many changes, shifts, and intersecting interests, which could continue.”
He says that “this renders the options available mere tactical understandings on a particular topic, at a particular time.” We saw this with Obama, Trump, and now Biden, as their positions are not at all consistent, and there is no clear strategy.
Relying on the United States to be a permanent ally is difficult, not for the powers in the region but even for the Europeans, and the Germans have already said that relying on American foreign policy, which changes every four years, is untenable.
As far as Russia is concerned, there is no clear strategy. Instead, there is politicking, one man seizing opportunities. While the Russian president does seek to restore the Soviet Union, he lacks the tools required to make his goals sustainable, and he is now falling into China’s arms.
Beijing itself is a different story. The Chinese have a clear strategy and long strategic breath. According to the diplomatic expert, China has witnessed an “epic economic rise,” adding that “for the first time, two world poles or superpowers, the United States and China, are economically dependent, meaning the collapse of one power’s economy would lead to the collapse of the other’s economy,” which makes it difficult for the United States, for example, to impose the kind of sanctions it could impose on Russia on China.
And so, it is clear that we are looking at the contours of a new world order taking form, one whose emergence will undoubtedly come at a high cost.
