Iraq's $27 Billion Total Deal Stuck Over Contract Wrangling

The logo of French oil and gas company Total is seen at La Defense business district in Courbevoie near Paris, France, February 8, 2021. REUTERS/Sarah MeyssonnierREUTERS
The logo of French oil and gas company Total is seen at La Defense business district in Courbevoie near Paris, France, February 8, 2021. REUTERS/Sarah MeyssonnierREUTERS
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Iraq's $27 Billion Total Deal Stuck Over Contract Wrangling

The logo of French oil and gas company Total is seen at La Defense business district in Courbevoie near Paris, France, February 8, 2021. REUTERS/Sarah MeyssonnierREUTERS
The logo of French oil and gas company Total is seen at La Defense business district in Courbevoie near Paris, France, February 8, 2021. REUTERS/Sarah MeyssonnierREUTERS

A $27-billion deal between France’s Total and Iraq, that Baghdad hoped would reverse the exit of oil majors from the country, has stalled amid disputes over terms and risks being scrapped by the country's new government.

Iraq has struggled to attract major fresh investments into its energy industry since signing a flurry of post US-invasion deals over a decade ago, Reuters reported.

The Iraqi government has cut oil output targets repeatedly as international oil companies that signed those initial deals leave due to poor returns from revenue sharing agreements.

Total agreed last year to invest in four oil, gas and renewables projects in the southern Basra region over 25 years. The deal, signed by Iraq's oil ministry in September 2021 followed a visit from French President Emmanuel Macron.

The ministry, however, did not have agreement on the deal’s financial details with all the government departments that needed to approve it, three Iraqi oil ministry and industry sources involved or familiar with the negotiations told Reuters, and it has been mired in disputes ever since.

Following a parliamentary election, the deal now needs approval from a new Iraqi cabinet, including new oil and finance ministers, who won't be in place until at least the end of March.

Iraq’s oil ministry told Reuters it expects the TotalEnergies deal to complete from then.

TotalEnergies said it was progressing towards closing the deal but added, "The agreements remain subject to conditions to be met and lifted by both sides."

The terms, which have not been made public or previously reported, have raised concerns from Iraqi politicians, and according to sources close to the deal are unprecedented for Iraq.

A group of lawmakers wrote to the oil ministry in January demanding details of the deal and asking why it was signed without competition and transparency, according to a copy of the letter seen by Reuters.

Parliament could force the oil ministry to review or scrap the deal.

Under the draft terms, Total is relying on getting $10 billion of initial investment to fund the wider project via oil sales from the Ratawi oilfield, one of four projects in the broader agreement, according to the sources.

The Ratawi field is already pumping 85,000 barrels of oil per day and rather than Total receiving its share, the revenue is going into government coffers.

Total is due to get 40% of the revenues from Ratawi’s oil sales, Iraqi oil sources involved in negotiations told Reuters.

That dwarfs the more usual 10-15% that investors would have received from past projects through Iraq’s technical service contracts, which reimbursed foreign companies for capital and production costs and paid a fixed remuneration fee in crude.

The higher the revenue-sharing proportion, the quicker and less risky the payback for investor.

Iraq’s oil ministry officials argue the country needs to be competitive with other energy producing countries to lure big investors like Total.

“We need to offer more incentives,” a senior oil ministry official said.

Total also has concerns about the deal. The French company has rejected having Iraq’s National Oil Company (INOC) as its partner in the project, which is also delaying closing the deal, according to the two sources.

Iraq’s oil production capacity has grown from 3 million to around 5 million bpd in recent years, but the departure of oil majors such as Exxon Mobil and Shell from a number of projects due to poor returns means future growth is uncertain.

Besides Ratawi, the deal with Total consists of a 1 GW solar power plant, a 600 million cubic feet a day gas processing facility, and a $3 billion sea water supply project key to boosting Iraq’s southern oil production.

The latter has also been hit by delays as Iraq's oil ministry decided in August last year that it wanted constructors to pay for the project, reversing a previous decision to shortlist companies which would do it using state funds. It is still collecting bids for financing, sources say.



Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
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Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)

Iraq produces more than 5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), Oil Minister Basim Mohammed told state news agency INA on Saturday.

According to Reuters, Iraq is pushing for a higher OPEC production quota as the economic fallout from the Iran war and new investment by oil majors increase pressure on Baghdad to boost output, potentially putting it at odds with the producer group.

The conflict has hit Iraq particularly hard, forcing major export cuts and depriving the state of oil revenue, which accounted for 88% of government income last year.


IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
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IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)

Central bankers around the world would need to consider any slowdown in AI-driven growth as they assess steps in their fight against inflation, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Friday.

Georgieva said concerns about dependence on the AI investment boom and high valuations were impacting markets around the world.

"Things are going up and down, and this is likely to continue," she told an audience at IMF headquarters in Washington, adding that the volatility would complicate the job of central banks at a time when risks to price stability had been growing.

A steep rout in technology stocks on Thursday rippled through markets on fears that ⁠the Democrats' victory ⁠in the US midterm elections would increase regulatory scrutiny of AI and slow the data center build-out, sending investors to the safety of bonds.

The political jitters are hitting an AI trade already on shaky footing due to worry about return on massive spending on AI-related infrastructure, with the meltdown spurring margin calls and spooking retail investors and hedge ⁠funds alike.

Georgieva said the AI investment boom was lifting growth in some countries, helping to offset a negative oil-supply shock triggered by the war in the Middle East, but it was also adding to inflationary pressures and financial stability concerns.

The IMF last month flagged significant growth and financial stability risks from a potential ending of the AI investment boom, among other factors, including a prolonged Middle East war. At the time, it warned that a steep drop in AI investment could lead to a sharp fall in asset prices, ultimately cutting global GDP ⁠by 1.1% ⁠by 2028, including a 1.8% drop in US output.

Georgieva did not repeat the downside forecast on Friday, but acknowledged the recent market volatility.

"Should there be a slowdown in the AI-driven growth impulse, it would need to be factored in as central banks assess the necessary steps in the fight against stubborn inflation," she said.

Democrats are planning to unleash a flood of new legislation targeting artificial intelligence systems and data-center development when they take control of the US Congress in January, Reuters reported on Friday, citing congressional aides and advocates.

That would mark a sharp shift from the Republican-led Congress, where lawmakers largely focused on promoting AI development and declined to pass legislation restricting the technology.


World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
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World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)

World food prices edged lower in October as weaker import demand contributed to monthly declines in cereal, dairy and meat prices, but were still nearly 6% higher than a year earlier, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said on Friday.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices for a basket of food commodities, ‌averaged 133.9 points ‌in October, down from a revised ‌135.6 ⁠in September.

The index ⁠was 5.9% higher than a year earlier, but remained 16.4% below its March 2022 peak.

FAO's cereal price index fell 4.5% from September and was 12.6% lower than a year ago, as wheat and maize quotations declined. Wheat prices eased on weak import demand ⁠and improved production prospects, especially in Argentina.

"Expectations of ‌easing constraints on Black ‌Sea export flows added to the downward pressure on prices, ‌although continued disruptions to Black Sea logistics limited the decline," ‌FAO said in a statement.

Maize prices also eased after reaching a three-year high in September, pressured by the US harvest, expectations of ample supplies in South America and renewed ‌prospects of easing tensions in the Black Sea region.

Vegetable oil prices edged up 0.3%, ⁠as ⁠higher soybean and sunflower oil prices more than offset a fall in rapeseed oil prices.

Sugar prices rose 6.6%, their fourth straight monthly increase, to the highest level since December 2024, after rainfall disrupted harvesting in Brazil. They were now 28.8% above a year ago.

The dairy index fell 1.1%, as lower butter and cheese prices linked to ample supplies and subdued demand outweighed gains in milk powder.

The meat index declined 1.2%, while still slightly above its year-earlier level, as ovine and bovine meat prices fell.