It is possible for the fate of a nation and people to hinge on a decision taken by the president. We, the children of the terrible Middle East know this story all too well.
We know that the time of the state of institutions will not come any time soon. We know that the fate of peoples sometimes lies in the hands of the strong man, who believes that the parliament, constitution and army are there to do his bidding. We know that the man who holds the decision-making power can take a country in any direction he pleases. We know that the real job of advisors is to promote this decision that is taken without consulting them.
The strong have a habit of dancing on the edge of the abyss.
It is also possible for the fate of the entire world to hinge on the decision taken by one man. A man who leads a country that is armed to the teeth and wants to avenge the injustice brought against it by history. The past century is rife with men who took decisions that drowned the world or parts of it or their countries in swamps of blood. Experts have spent years delving into the biographies of these kinds of men. Some have described such men as sick. This was said of Hitler, Stalin, Pol Pot and several others. I grow fearful when I read such studies. I fear that they may have gone too far in explanations and making judgements. I most of all fear that they may be right.
I write this because the fate of the next stage hinges on the will of one man called Vladimir Putin. A man who managed to turn back the hands of time in Europe. Some say the man is an expert in exploiting the fears others harbor of him. That he is good at reaping the rewards of the portrait of the villain that has been painted of him and of the image of the sly player that he may have sought to forge. Some would say that the colonel who was tasked with following spies and subjugating others near the Berlin Wall before its collapse never got over his grudge against the West, which tore up the Soviet Union and Russia's great halo.
The experts dig up Mr. President's history and reassess his movements and gestures. Some, including the New York Times, have said that his keenness on keeping a distance between himself and his guests with a long table reflects his disconnection from reality, his isolation and belief that he is different than the leaders who have clamored to appease him.
Some have started to claim that this behavior can be blamed on the isolation prompted by the coronavirus. Others said he was trying to write the golden chapter of his history before he is beset by his 70s or surprises. Experts do not deny that a long stay at the palace and the president's sense that he is on a holy mission have played a major and dangerous part in affecting his personality.
The world was clearly taken off-guard by the Ukrainian crisis. It did not expect the master of the Kremlin to push Europe, within weeks, on the brink of the abyss. It did not expect to wake up one day and see the Old Continent once again grapple with threats of invasion and for military maneuvers to force NATO generals to update their old plans and again turn Russia into the number one enemy. Not since World War II has Europe seen such intimidation and misinformation. Western countries did not expect to be forced to review their arsenals and return to scenarios of invasions and streams of refugees.
The neutral observer of Putin's career rules out the possibility that he would command the Red Army to seize Ukraine, no matter the price. Such an adventure would revive the western alliance against Russia. It will return it to living under the snow, with an economy that is cut off from the West. Heavily shedding Ukrainian blood may not sit well within Russia itself because of ethnic, religious and historic ties. Such isolation will weaken Russia's position and turn it into the captive of the Chinese giant, which may be a greater danger to the land of Lenin than the West itself.
Did Mr. President land his country in a crisis? Did he gamble his entire winnings on the Ukrainian crisis that he caused? Can he go back from the brink of war without paying a price? Should the West take a hard line, will he resort to plunge the world in a long crisis by continuing to mobilize forces and oversee drills? Can Putin go back from the edge of the abyss without victory? What will his advisors and generals say? Who will take seriously any maneuvers or amassing of troops he may organize in the future?
I have read about Putin's "recklessness", "isolation" and "impact of the coronavirus" with unbelieving eyes. There can be no denying that the long stay at the palace may heighten the president's sense of grandeur that may lead him to speak with history instead of his advisors. It is hard to believe that a man as clever as Putin could be pushed by the coronavirus isolation into becoming detached from reality and regional and international facts.
We, the children of the terrible Middle East, sometimes fear the changes that the palace introduces to the dreams and delusions of the president. One day, Saddam Hussein ordered the republican guard to invade Kuwait without informing the defense minister or army commander. One day, Tariq Aziz attended a meeting of leaderships that decided that Kuwait should be viewed as a new Iraqi province. The wise and experienced Aziz realized the danger of the catastrophic decision but he did not attempt to change it. One day, the Iraqi military leaders realized that all the defenses had been destroyed, but no one dared ask Mr. President to withdraw from Kuwait.
One day, Moammar al-Gaddafi ordered the abduction of the OPEC ministers and the killing of the Saudi and Iranian ministers. The mission was given to Venezuela's notorious Carlos and so it was.
I know very well that Putin was a smart, careful and sly player. That he is a master in the art of deception and of hiding his intentions. Within the KGB, he studied deception, living under an alias, and writing in invisible ink. He learned the art of striking at the right moment without delay or preamble.
But the Ukrainian crisis is fraught with dangers and it will reveal that the feeling of might after restoring Crimea and intervening in Syria allowed the coronavirus isolation to push Mr. President to a position that is difficult to pull back from and where victory will be difficult to achieve. All that's left is to wait as the West may opt to bow to the colonel, who has grown adept at dancing at the edge of the abyss.
