Syrian Fighters Ready to Join Next Phase of Ukraine War

Syrian President Bashar Assad, left, speaks to Russian President Vladimir Putin during their meeting in Damascus, Syria, Jan. 7, 2020. (AP)
Syrian President Bashar Assad, left, speaks to Russian President Vladimir Putin during their meeting in Damascus, Syria, Jan. 7, 2020. (AP)
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Syrian Fighters Ready to Join Next Phase of Ukraine War

Syrian President Bashar Assad, left, speaks to Russian President Vladimir Putin during their meeting in Damascus, Syria, Jan. 7, 2020. (AP)
Syrian President Bashar Assad, left, speaks to Russian President Vladimir Putin during their meeting in Damascus, Syria, Jan. 7, 2020. (AP)

During a visit to Syria in 2017, Vladimir Putin lavished praise on a Syrian general whose division played an instrumental role in defeating insurgents in the country’s long-running war. The Russian president told him his cooperation with Russian troops "will lead to great successes in the future."

Now members of Brig. Gen. Suheil al-Hassan’s division are among hundreds of Russian-trained Syrian fighters who have reportedly signed up to fight alongside Russian troops in Ukraine, including Syrian soldiers, former rebels and experienced fighters who fought for years against the ISIS group in Syria’s desert.

So far, only a small number appears to have arrived in Russia for military training ahead of deployment on the front lines. Although Kremlin officials boasted early in the war of more than 16,000 applications from the Middle East, US officials and activists monitoring Syria say there have not yet been significant numbers of fighters from the region joining the war in Ukraine.

Analysts, however, say this could change as Russia prepares for the next phase of the battle with a full-scale offensive in eastern Ukraine. They believe fighters from Syria are more likely to be deployed in coming weeks, especially after Putin named Gen. Alexander Dvornikov, who commanded the Russian military in Syria, as the new war commander in Ukraine.

Though some question how effective Syrian fighters would be in Ukraine, they could be brought in if more forces are needed to besiege cities or to make up for rising casualties. Dvornikov is well acquainted with the multiple paramilitary forces in Syria trained by Russia while he oversaw the strategy of ruthlessly besieging and bombarding opposition-held cities in Syria into submission.

"Russia is preparing for a greater battle" in Ukraine and Syrian fighters are likely to take part, said Ahmad Hamada, a Syrian army defector who is now a military analyst based in Turkey.

Syria observers and activists say the Russians have been actively recruiting in Syria for the Ukraine war, particularly among Russian-trained combatants.

Rami Abdurrahman, who heads the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition war monitor, reported that so far about 40,000 people have registered -- 22,000 with the Russian military and about 18,000 with the Russian private contractor Wagner Group.

Around 700 members of al-Hassan’s 25th Special Missions Forces Division, known in Syria as the "Tiger Force," left Syria over the past weeks to fight along Russian forces, Abdurrahman said. The numbers could not be independently confirmed.

Pro-government activists posted videos over the past two weeks on social media showing members of the Tiger Force performing military drills including parachuting from helicopters. Russian officers appeared in one of the videos advising the paratroopers inside a helicopter as al-Hassan praised the young men by tapping on their heads. It was not immediately clear if the videos were new.

Abdurrahman said there are also volunteers from the Russian-trained 5th Division; the Baath brigades, which is the armed wing of Assad’s ruling Baath party; and the Palestinian Quds Brigade, made up of Palestinian refugees in Syria. All have fought alongside the Russian military in Syria’s war.

"The Russians are looking for experienced fighters. They don’t want anyone who was not trained by the Russians," Abdurrahman said.

The Tiger Force took credit for some of the biggest government victories in the 11-year conflict. It was involved in a monthslong Russian-backed campaign into the opposition’ last enclave, located in the northwest province of Idlib, which ended in March 2020 with government forces capturing a vital north-south highway -- though opposition factions remain in control of the enclave.

Al-Hassan "is one of Russia’s men and Russia will depend on him," said Omar Abu Layla, a Europe-based activist who runs the DeirEzzor 24, a Syria war monitoring group.

Hundreds of fighters from the 5th Division and the Quds Brigade have registered at Russia's Hmeimeem base in western Syria, which is leading recruitment efforts, and are waiting for orders, he said.

In late March, a Russian-trained force known as the "ISIS Hunters" militia, which fought for years against ISIS, posted an ad calling on men aged 23 to 49 to come forward for screening, saying those who pass the test and are found suitable will be called on later.

So far, about 100 men have registered their names in the southern province of Sweida, according to Rayan Maarouf of Suwayda24, an activist collective that covers ISIS activities in the Syrian desert. He added that they were promised a monthly income of no less than $600, a huge sum of money amid widespread unemployment and the crash of the Syrian pound.

Earlier this month, Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby said the US had indications that the Wagner Group is trying to recruit fighters, mostly from the Middle East, to deploy in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region.

But he said there has been "no specific information" on numbers recruited. "We just aren’t there yet to see anything real demonstrable when it comes to reinforcement," he added.

Gen. Frank McKenzie, head of US Central Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee in early March that so far there are only "very small groups" trying to make their way from Syria to Ukraine, calling it a "very small trickle."

Retired Lebanese army general Naji Malaeb, who follows the war in Syria closely, said there is no indication so far of Syrian fighters traveling to Russia, but this could change as the war drags on.

"This all depends on what the Russians plan to do in the near future," Malaeb said.

Syrian and Palestinian officials in Syria have played down reports of fighters heading to Ukraine. The Syrian government is likely wary of having Syrian fighters flock to Ukraine, opening opportunities at the front lines that its many opponents could exploit.

In a potentially worrying sign for the Syrian government, Russia has significantly scaled down its operations in Syria since the war in Ukraine started, with fewer airstrikes targeting ISIS or opposition positions in Idlib.

"Any change in the posture of Russian forces or pro-regime militias creates security gaps that anti-regime actors including Turkey, ISIS, al-Qaeda and Syrian opposition groups can exploit," the ISW report said.

Muhannad Haj Ali, a former legislator and a commander with the armed wing of Syria’s ruling Baath party said no Syrians have gone to fight in Ukraine and that he didn’t expect any to go.

He said he was certain Russia will win in Ukraine without any need for Syrians’ help.

"The way the operations are going is clear indication that Ukraine will not be another Afghanistan," he said.



Ghassan Salame to Asharq Al-Awsat: World in Store for Broader Wars, More Nuclear Countries

Former Minister Ghassan Salame speaks to Asharq Al-Awsat. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Former Minister Ghassan Salame speaks to Asharq Al-Awsat. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Ghassan Salame to Asharq Al-Awsat: World in Store for Broader Wars, More Nuclear Countries

Former Minister Ghassan Salame speaks to Asharq Al-Awsat. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Former Minister Ghassan Salame speaks to Asharq Al-Awsat. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The world is facing growing uncertainty as the first quarter of the 21st century draws to a close. The changes are rapid and old convictions are dropping one after another. To come to terms with this uncertainty, Asharq Al-Awsat sat down with Lebanon’s former Minister of Culture, and former United Nations envoy Ghassan Salame, whose latest publication, “The Temptation of Mars: War and Peace in the 21st Century”, sheds light on which path the world is headed on for decades to come.

Nuclear ambitions

*What has changed in the world system in the first quarter of the 21st century?

Since the end of the Cold War, the world witnessed massive positive change, such as a drop in military spending, nuclear warheads and military bases in foreign countries. The Soviet Union withdrew from Eastern Europe and the United States closed several of its military bases in the Philippines and Central America. Work at the United Nations and several international agencies was also revived.

However, the situation was flipped on its head when the US invaded Iraq in 2003 because the invasion had no legal basis – certainly not from the UN Security Council – and world powers opposed it.

Moreover, the US played the biggest role in establishing the international order since 1945, starting with the UN, international funds and other organizations. So, if this country allowed itself to violate the rules it helped put in place, what’s stopping other countries from doing the same? And this is indeed what happened: Russia entered Georgia and Moldova and then Ukraine for the first time, and again for a second time. Other countries followed suit where they resorted to force to achieve their goals.

As a result, we witnessed a gradual growth in military budgets and nuclear countries, such as Russia, the US and France, began to gradually expand their nuclear arsenal. China is aiming to double its nuclear warheads from 1,500 to 3,000 by 2030.

Non-nuclear countries are meanwhile seeking to obtain them. Some 20 countries are capable of becoming nuclear in one year and I believe some will do so.

If the lack of trust between major powers, including the US, China and others, continues then the tensions will persist and escalate. Just look at how Russia changed its nuclear doctrine and Israeli officials called for bombing Gaza with a nuclear bomb. Such statements could not have been uttered in the 20 years before that.

Comprehensive South

*Will the “comprehensive South” play a role in restoring balance in the global order?

Certainly, but it will take time. Let us take a look at the scene. We have the NATO alliance which has no other equal in the world. When Russia started to move against Georgia and later Ukraine, NATO became more important and neutral European countries, such as Sweden and Finland, previously opposed to joining the alliance, have asked to become a part of it. So, this alliance mainly brings together western countries.

There is no other alliance that is similar to it across the globe. So, there is an imbalance between the West and the rest of the world because the West is reliant on an integrated alliance. There is a feeling among other countries, such as China, Russia, Brazil, South Africa and India, that they are not getting their share in international organizations and that their opinions, demands and interests do not get the same attention because they are not part of an integrated alliance or unified bloc.

This is why organizations, such as the BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization, were formed. These groups are still in their early stages of development and they are also victims of contrasting interests: China wants more countries to join the BRICS, while Russia doesn’t. China is speaking of an integrated global south, while Russia doesn’t want to lump itself in that group.

Furthermore, members of these groups have differences between them, such as India and China’s border disputes. The BRICS has not, and will not, in the near future transform into anything like NATO unless it sets a doctrine for itself. NATO is formed of countries that enjoy similar political systems. It is based on a free economic market and liberal constitutional system. These features don’t exist in the BRICS countries.

China and the US

*Where is the rivalry between China and the US headed? Will the years to come lead us to a bipolarity?

It is wrong to believe that China and the US are already in bipolarity. Bipolarity is a project that started 15 years ago. The US does not like multiple poles. It knows that it won’t be able to retain a large number of its allies if it were the sole pole in the world. Washington is most at ease in a bipolar world where it holds the upper hand and where fierce competition makes its allies take its side.

Between 2006 and 2007, when US President Geore W. Bush was in power, the deep state and political elite in the US sought a new rival and believed that China could be it. So, efforts got underway to form the bipolar world and for China to become the main strategic competitor. Of course, China was very comfortable with this.

When Barack Obama was elected president in 2008, the first foreign dignitary he met was the president of China, not of Russia or France. This elevates China’s status. So, China has become embroiled in this American project to establish a bipolar world. The project is still facing some major resistance from several countries. The question is: Will Russia, India, Brazil and others accept this bipolarity? I believe that several major countries are wary of this bipolarity because it will curb their political and diplomatic freedoms.

Tectonic shifts in the Arab world

*The Arab world is witnessing tectonic shifts, most notably with the ouster of the Syrian regime. Will the Arab world remain this fragmented?

What you are asking has to do with the conditions for political stability. Why are some countries and regions politically stable and others are constantly witnessing revolutions and lack of security?

There are several explanations for this. The common answer is the absence of the state of law, and representation of the people and their involvement in political decisions. These elements provide stability. This is the liberal explanation. Some would say that the liberal reading applies to advanced countries with low populations, not backward ones with large populations where stability can only be imposed through the forceful application of the law.

I believe the Arab world is experiencing a phase that does not allow stability. First, we have the vast inequality in incomes between neighboring countries. This will lead the poorest countries to demand that the wealthier ones share their wealth.

Other factors are the population explosion, people moving from rural to urban areas and the lack of new job opportunities. Syria, for example, has several factors that do not lead to stability: desertification, water scarcity, drop in agricultural production and a population explosion. I think Syria is the third country in the world in terms of population growth, people moving to urban areas and lack of job opportunities. Syria needs 300,000 job opportunities each year and they are mostly unavailable. I’m not even talking about politics, sectarianism, oppression and other issues.