Iran-Pakistan Ties on Brink after Khan's Ouster

Former Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan speaks during a news conference in Islamabad, Saturday, April 23, 2022. (AP)
Former Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan speaks during a news conference in Islamabad, Saturday, April 23, 2022. (AP)
TT

Iran-Pakistan Ties on Brink after Khan's Ouster

Former Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan speaks during a news conference in Islamabad, Saturday, April 23, 2022. (AP)
Former Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan speaks during a news conference in Islamabad, Saturday, April 23, 2022. (AP)

Iran is concerned that the progress it has made in bilateral relations with Pakistan may evaporate with the ouster of prime minister Imran Khan.

Iranian experts expect new Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif to pay a visit to Iran soon as part of a revision of his predecessor's foreign policy.

Pakistan is geopolitically significant to Iran in spite of the clash of interests and political stances over regional and international issues.

These differences were highlighted in wake of the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan, Iran's signing of a strategic cooperation agreement with China, Iran's nuclear deal, American sanctions, and the Iranian Quds Forces' plans to expand its reach in the northern Indian Ocean and its backing of the Shiites in Pakistan, through the Zainebiyoun militia.

These issues pose a risk to the strategic balances of the decision-makers in Tehran.

Iranians are divided over the causes that led to Khan's ouster. The conservatives blamed it on international factors, while few have spoken about regional and local causes.

Iranian Revolutionary Guards media blamed the United States, an accusation it has made before in regards to government changes in Pakistan.

Some media reports have also said that the crisis in Pakistan will persist after Khan's exit from the scene.

Security and regional developments had taken the spotlight between Pakistan and Iran since Khan came to power. The Guards have frequently come under bloody attacks by opposition factions in Iran's volatile eastern Baluchestan region.

Iran sought to contain the situation by signing security and trade agreements with Pakistan covering the 900-km long border.

The neighbors have since opened several border crossings and set up joint markets to confront security challenges. It has apparently paid off, with less instability being reported in the region.

In spite of this perceived improvement, Iranian experts believe that with the exception of some security and political breakthroughs, Khan's government had not really developed economic relations with Tehran.

They believe that a government change in Pakistan will not lead to radical and strategic changes in relations with Tehran.

There are no differences between Iran and Pakistan, said one analyst, describing relations as strong, in spite of some tensions that may occasionally emerge, and predicting that the ties will continue in the same vein.



Trump Victory Expected to Boost Musk's Mars Dream

US President Donald Trump and Elon Musk are seen at the Firing Room Four after the launch of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket and Crew Dragon spacecraft on NASA's SpaceX Demo-2 mission to the International Space Station from NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida, US, May 30, 2020. (Reuters)
US President Donald Trump and Elon Musk are seen at the Firing Room Four after the launch of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket and Crew Dragon spacecraft on NASA's SpaceX Demo-2 mission to the International Space Station from NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida, US, May 30, 2020. (Reuters)
TT

Trump Victory Expected to Boost Musk's Mars Dream

US President Donald Trump and Elon Musk are seen at the Firing Room Four after the launch of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket and Crew Dragon spacecraft on NASA's SpaceX Demo-2 mission to the International Space Station from NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida, US, May 30, 2020. (Reuters)
US President Donald Trump and Elon Musk are seen at the Firing Room Four after the launch of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket and Crew Dragon spacecraft on NASA's SpaceX Demo-2 mission to the International Space Station from NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida, US, May 30, 2020. (Reuters)

Elon Musk's dream of transporting humans to Mars will become a bigger national priority under the administration of US President-elect Donald Trump, sources said, signaling big changes for NASA's moon program and a boost for Musk's SpaceX.

NASA's Artemis program, which aims to use SpaceX's Starship rocket to put humans on the moon as a proving ground for later Mars missions, is expected to focus more on the Red Planet under Trump and target uncrewed missions there this decade, according to four people familiar with Trump's burgeoning space policy agenda, according to Reuters.

Targeting Mars with spacecraft built for astronauts is not only more ambitious than focusing on the moon, but is also fraught with risk and potentially more expensive. Musk, who danced onstage at a Trump rally wearing an "Occupy Mars" T-shirt in October, spent $119 million on Trump's White House bid and has successfully elevated space policy at an unusual time in a presidential transition. In September, weeks after Musk endorsed Trump, the latter told reporters that the moon was a "launching pad" for his ultimate goal to reach Mars.

"At a minimum, we're going to get a more realistic Mars plan, you'll see Mars being set as an objective," said Doug Loverro, a space industry consultant who once led NASA's human exploration unit under Trump, who served as U.S. president from 2017 to 2021.

SpaceX, Musk and the Trump campaign did not immediately return requests for comment. A NASA spokeswoman said it "wouldn’t be appropriate to speculate on any changes with the new administration." Plans could still change, the sources added, as the Trump transition team takes shape in the coming weeks. Trump launched the Artemis program in 2019 during his first term and it was one of the few initiatives maintained under the administration of President Joe Biden. Trump space advisers want to revamp a program they will argue has languished in their absence, the sources said. Musk, who also owns electric-vehicle maker Tesla and brain-chip startup Neuralink, has made slashing government regulation and trimming down bureaucracy another core basis of his Trump support.

For space, the sources said, Musk's deregulation desires are likely to trigger changes at the Federal Aviation Administration's commercial space office, whose oversight of private rocket launches has frustrated Musk for slowing down SpaceX's Starship development.

The FAA did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

NASA under Trump, the sources said, is likely to favor fixed-price space contracts that shift greater responsibility onto private companies and scale back over-budget programs that have strained the Artemis budget.

That could spell trouble for the only rocket NASA owns, the Space Launch System rocket (SLS), whose roughly $24 billion development since 2011 has been led by Boeing and Northrop Grumman. Cancelling the program, some say, would be difficult since it would cost thousands of jobs and leave the U.S. even more dependent on SpaceX.

Boeing and Northrop did not immediately return a request for comment.

Musk, whose predictions have sometimes proven overly ambitious, said in September that SpaceX will land Starship on Mars in 2026 and a crewed mission will follow in four years' time. Trump has said at campaign rallies that he has discussed these ideas with Musk.

Many industry experts see this timeline as improbable.

"Is it possible for Elon to put a Starship on the surface of Mars in a one-way mission by the end of Trump's term? Absolutely, he certainly could do that," said Scott Pace, the top space policy official during Trump's first term.

"Is that a manned mission on Mars? No," Pace added. "You have to walk before you run."