Lebanon: Concerns Rise of Total Darkness after the Polls

Lebanon is crippled by frequent power cuts as corruption keeps hindering the improvement of the country's energy sector. (AFP)
Lebanon is crippled by frequent power cuts as corruption keeps hindering the improvement of the country's energy sector. (AFP)
TT
20

Lebanon: Concerns Rise of Total Darkness after the Polls

Lebanon is crippled by frequent power cuts as corruption keeps hindering the improvement of the country's energy sector. (AFP)
Lebanon is crippled by frequent power cuts as corruption keeps hindering the improvement of the country's energy sector. (AFP)

Warnings are growing in Lebanon that the country’s lingering electricity crisis could worsen after its parliamentary elections on May 15, amid fears of total darkness engulfing the nation in light of dysfunctional public services.

Walid Fayyad, Lebanon’s Energy Minister declared that the completion of the contract to import gas from Egypt through Syrian territory requires American guarantees in order not to fall under the Caesar law sanctions imposed on Syria.

In talks with the Egyptian Minister of Petroleum Tarek al-Mulla in April, Fayyad said that securing the necessary funding is in the hands of the World Bank. He also pointed out that US guarantees are required to exempt Lebanon from the repercussions of the Caesar law for oil transmission to Lebanon through Syria.

Lebanese lawmaker, Nazih Najem told Asharq Al-Awsat: “The problem is not in the agreement with the World Bank nor on how to import gas from Egypt and electricity from Jordan. The real problem is that the decision in Lebanon comes from abroad.”

He said that the government is aware that none of this will happen, but stands idle without looking for alternatives.

The MP said that unfortunately, the government waits for the street to explode in anger instead.

Najem explained that some alternative solutions for importing gas from Egypt and electricity from Jordan were presented to the government eight months ago without receiving any response.

Moreover, he stated that no US guarantees, exempting Egypt and Jordan from sanctions shall they export gas and electricity to Lebanon through Syria, were given to the two countries.

Lebanon suffers from a severe electricity crisis supply and seeks to resolve it through a plan supported by the US through the import of Egyptian gas which will be pumped through Jordan and Syria to operate a power station in North Lebanon. But the agreement was not even signed.

Energy and oil expert, Laury Haytayan told Asharq Al Awsat: “The government’s ambiguity is not reassuring for any foreign party to deal with it.”

She said the World Bank links funding of Lebanon’s electricity plan to the implementation of reforms which “unfortunately are nothing but promises.”



Netanyahu’s Messages: Beyond Türkiye, Closer to Tel Aviv

Men inspect the site of an Israeli airstrike on Thursday morning, following the bombing in southern Hama Province (AFP). 
Men inspect the site of an Israeli airstrike on Thursday morning, following the bombing in southern Hama Province (AFP). 
TT
20

Netanyahu’s Messages: Beyond Türkiye, Closer to Tel Aviv

Men inspect the site of an Israeli airstrike on Thursday morning, following the bombing in southern Hama Province (AFP). 
Men inspect the site of an Israeli airstrike on Thursday morning, following the bombing in southern Hama Province (AFP). 

Following a series of intensified Israeli airstrikes on Damascus and the airports in Homs and Hama, as well as a ground incursion into the city of Nawa near Daraa, Israeli officials on Thursday escalated their rhetoric, issuing fresh threats to the Syrian leadership and warning of further military action—this time citing concerns over Turkish military activity in the region.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar voiced particular alarm over Türkiye’s growing role in Syria, Lebanon, and beyond. Speaking at a press conference in Paris, he said: “They are doing everything they can to turn Syria into a Turkish protectorate. That is clearly their intention.”

Defense Minister Israel Katz echoed this sentiment, stating that Israel “will not allow Damascus to become a security threat” to Israel.

Rising Concern Over Türkiye’s Military Footprint in Syria

Military officials in Tel Aviv confirm that Israel sees Türkiye’s growing military presence in Syria as a serious concern. Their fear stems from two key issues: first, Ankara’s reported efforts to rebuild the Syrian army along the lines of its own modernized military model; and second, its apparent goal of establishing a long-term military foothold inside Syrian territory.

Israeli defense sources point out that Türkiye’s armed forces operate based on a traditional ground warfare doctrine, featuring large-scale armored divisions and well-equipped infantry units—similar in style to the Russian military. This stands in contrast to the Israeli military, which relies heavily on air superiority and has long underinvested in ground forces.

Given this disparity, any significant Turkish deployment in Syria could pose a direct challenge to Israeli operations and raise the risk of confrontation.

While the recent Israeli airstrikes targeted mostly long-defunct Syrian military sites—many of which have been hit repeatedly over the years—the attacks signal a broader strategic shift.

In the wake of the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led assault on southern Israel, the Israeli military has moved away from a defensive posture of deterrence and containment. In its place, the army has embraced a more aggressive doctrine built around preemptive action.

This shift was further underscored by the appointment of a new chief of staff from the Armored Corps—the first in three decades—signaling a renewed emphasis on ground operations and offensive initiatives.

Not Just a Message to Türkiye

Despite the messaging around Türkiye’s presence, analysts say the recent wave of Israeli military action also serves broader geopolitical aims.

After failing to persuade Washington to pressure Ankara to scale back its involvement in Syria, Israel now appears determined to assert its own red lines militarily. The airstrike on the Scientific Studies and Research Center in Damascus—a facility already destroyed multiple times since 2018—was widely viewed as symbolic.

Israeli officials say the intended audience for that particular strike was Syrian interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa, whom Israeli intelligence continues to refer to by his former nom de guerre, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. By launching the attack during the Eid al-Fitr holiday, Israel aimed to send a clear message: there will be no return to normalcy in Syria without accounting for Israeli interests.

Among those interests is normalization. Last month, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated his desire to see Syria and Lebanon join the Abraham Accords and establish formal diplomatic ties with Israel.

Hardline figures within Netanyahu’s coalition believe Israel currently holds a strategic upper hand. As right-wing think tank head Meir Ben-Shabbat recently wrote: “Israel is in its strongest position ever. It is transforming the Middle East, expanding its military capabilities, and pushing back the Iranian axis—while Syria is at its weakest.”

For many in Israel’s ruling right, this is an ideal moment to push for a peace agreement with Syria, possibly even one involving Israeli withdrawal from the occupied Golan Heights.

The Real Audience: Domestic Israel

Still, perhaps the most significant message behind the military campaign is directed not at Ankara, Damascus, or even Tehran—but at Tel Aviv.

As protests against Netanyahu’s leadership have grown louder in recent months, military escalation has served as a convenient political shield. The wars in Gaza, the West Bank, Syria, and Lebanon dominate public attention and have largely sidelined anti-government demonstrations.

“Netanyahu’s government must go, but we won’t take to the streets while our sons are fighting,” has become a common refrain among many Israelis who oppose his leadership but remain reluctant to protest during wartime.

By maintaining a state of conflict, Netanyahu is not only securing his coalition’s survival but also enabling his allies to advance a hardline agenda—particularly on the Palestinian issue—that would have faced greater resistance in peacetime.

Critics warn that this strategy, while politically expedient, comes at a steep cost to Israel’s democratic institutions, its judiciary, and the long-term stability of the region.