US Intelligence: IRGC to Escalate Attacks in Case of Sanctions Waivers

US Army Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier speaks at Tuesday's hearing. (AFP)
US Army Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier speaks at Tuesday's hearing. (AFP)
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US Intelligence: IRGC to Escalate Attacks in Case of Sanctions Waivers

US Army Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier speaks at Tuesday's hearing. (AFP)
US Army Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier speaks at Tuesday's hearing. (AFP)

A US top official said Iran would increase its targeting of Americans and US allies as a result of the Biden administration’s significant sanctions relief and offer to return to the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement.

US Army Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said in a testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would increase targeting against US partners in the region, as well as US forces if they had increased funding due to sanctions relief.

He warned that Iran - through its partners and proxies - threatens neighbors in the Middle East and American forces, while enriching uranium to new levels.

His remarks came in response to mounting criticism by Republicans, who accuse President Joe Biden’s administration of offering major sanctions waivers to Tehran in exchange for its return to the nuclear deal.

The US intelligence hinted that Iran still poses a major threat to the United States and its interests.

Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said during the same hearing that the Iranian regime continues to threaten US interests as it tries to “erode US influence in the Middle East, trench its influence, project power in neighboring states and minimize threats to regime stability.”

She also warned that the iterative violence between Israel and Iran has the potential to escalate or spread.

Moreover, she remarked that Iran’s frequent efforts to assassinate current and former US officials are an attempt to avenge Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani’s killing in a US drone strike in Iraq in January 2020.

“A fair amount of their motivation in this scenario we assess to be in relation to Soleimani as part of their sort of efforts for revenge, and is a particularly challenging area, I think, to deter them from action in this space,” she said, noting that she could go into further details in a closed session.

Bipartisan lawmakers' dissatisfaction with Biden's Iran policy was evident during the hearing.

Senator Jack Reed, Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee said in the four years since then-President Trump pulled out of the nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran has made key nuclear advances.

“While negotiations to return Iran to the JCPOA are in the final stages, the final outcome has not yet been determined,” he added.

He stressed that Iran and its proxies continue to mount drone and rocket attacks in the region, including against bases in Iraq and Syria where the US has forces deployed, Saudi Arabia, and now the United Arab Emirates.



France on the Back Foot in Africa after Chadian Snub

File photo: Chad's president Idriss Deby (R) talks with France's President Emmanuel Macron (L) during an official visit to meet with 'Barkhane' soldiers, at the Presidential palace in N'Djamena on December 23, 2018. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP)
File photo: Chad's president Idriss Deby (R) talks with France's President Emmanuel Macron (L) during an official visit to meet with 'Barkhane' soldiers, at the Presidential palace in N'Djamena on December 23, 2018. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP)
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France on the Back Foot in Africa after Chadian Snub

File photo: Chad's president Idriss Deby (R) talks with France's President Emmanuel Macron (L) during an official visit to meet with 'Barkhane' soldiers, at the Presidential palace in N'Djamena on December 23, 2018. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP)
File photo: Chad's president Idriss Deby (R) talks with France's President Emmanuel Macron (L) during an official visit to meet with 'Barkhane' soldiers, at the Presidential palace in N'Djamena on December 23, 2018. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP)

A French plan to significantly reduce its military presence in West and central Africa risks backfiring and further diminishing the former colonial power's influence in the region at a time when Russia is gaining ground.
A French envoy to President Emmanuel Macron this week handed in a report with proposals on how France could reduce its military presence in Chad, Gabon and Ivory Coast, where it has deployed troops for decades, Reuters reported.
Details of the report have not been made public but two sources said the plan is to cut the number of troops to 600 from around 2,200 now. The sources said Chad would keep the largest contingent with 300 French troops, down from 1,000. However, in a surprise move that caught French officials on the hop, the government of Chad - a key Western ally in the fight against militants in the region - on Thursday abruptly ended its defense cooperation pact with France. That could lead to French troops leaving the central African country altogether.
"For France it is the start of the end of their security engagement in central and Western Africa," said Ulf Laessing, director of the Sahel Program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Mali.
"Chad was the aircraft carrier of the French army, its logistical headquarters. If Chad doesn't exist, the French army will have a huge problem to keep running its other operations."
In a further blow to France, Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye told French state TV on Thursday it was inappropriate for French troops to maintain a presence in his country, where 350 French soldiers are currently based. France has already pulled its soldiers out from Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, following military coups in those West African countries and spreading anti-French sentiment. Paris is also shifting more attention to Europe with the war in Ukraine and increasing budgetary constraints, diplomats said.
The review envisions the remaining French soldiers in the region focusing on training, intelligence exchange and responding to requests from countries for help, depending on their needs, the sources said. Chad's move to end the cooperation deal had not been discussed with Paris and shocked the French, according to the two sources and other officials. France, which wants to keep a presence in Chad in part because of its work to help ease one of the world's worst humanitarian crises unfolding now in neighboring Sudan, responded only 24 hours after Chad made its announcement.
"France takes note and intends to continue the dialogue to implement these orientations," the foreign ministry said in a statement.
One of the two sources, a French official with knowledge of Chadian affairs, said Chad's government appeared to have seen the French decision to more than halve its military presence there as a snub. Chad also felt the French would no longer be in a position to guarantee the security of the military regime led by President Mahamat Idriss Deby, this source said.
Macron had backed Deby despite criticism since Deby seized power following the death of his father, who ruled Chad for 30 years until he was killed in 2021 during an incursion by rebels. Deby won an election held this year.
In its statement on Thursday evening, released hours after the French foreign minister had visited the Sudanese border in eastern Chad with his counterpart, Chad's foreign ministry said N'djamena wanted to fully assert its sovereignty after more than six decades of independence from France. It said the decision should in no way undermine the friendly relations between the two countries. Earlier this year, a small contingent of US special forces left Chad amid a review of US cooperation with the country.
The French drawdown, coupled with a US pullback from Africa, contrasts with the increasing influence of Russia and other countries, including Türkiye, on the continent. Russian mercenaries are helping prop up the military governments of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, and are also fighting alongside them against extremist militants. However, French officials and other sources played down Russia's ability to take advantage of the French setback in Chad, at least in the short term. The French source familiar with Chadian affairs noted that Russia and Chad backed rival factions in Sudan's war. Russia also has major military commitments in Syria and the war in Ukraine.