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Syria: Small Wars, Big Battles

Boys look at opposition fighters in the countryside of Aleppo, northern Syria (AFP)
Boys look at opposition fighters in the countryside of Aleppo, northern Syria (AFP)
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Syria: Small Wars, Big Battles

Boys look at opposition fighters in the countryside of Aleppo, northern Syria (AFP)
Boys look at opposition fighters in the countryside of Aleppo, northern Syria (AFP)

Can “small wars” in the near or immediate future shake the stalemate in Syria? What are the priorities of acting states in the Syrian file? Where do the concerns of Syrians lie within their war-torn country and the three micro-states existing there? How are Syrians dealing with the “big battles” that have to do with living conditions?

A War of Drafts

Millions of Syrians turned their attention to the diplomatic confrontation in the UN Security Council in New York between the West and Russia.

World powers are in dispute over the extension of the international resolution to deliver aid across the Turkish border and “contact lines” inside Syria, with the current resolution’s mandate coming to an end tomorrow.

Moscow wants to renew the mandate for a period of six months instead of a whole year. It wants to drag Western countries to negotiations twice a year for many reasons, including the Ukraine war.

Russia also is looking to change the language of the international resolution and add electricity financing to “early recovery” projects. By this, it hopes to bring the world closer to contributing to the Syrian reconstruction file, a matter on which Western countries impose political conditions.

Moreover, Russia is trying to increase aid delivery through Syria to push for expanding relations with Damascus.

Other proposals include deleting any reference to the International Committee of the Red Cross and its efforts. This comes with the intention to “punish” the relief organization for several positions, including its support for an international plan to establish an international mechanism to follow up on the file of missing persons in Syria.

Raids and Tests

Russia has at least three times bombed positions near US forces at Al-Tanf base, southeast Syria, and elsewhere.

Moscow did not give Washington's army sufficient time under the MoU they signed in 2017 for preventing conflict between them.

Clearly, this will be repeated frequently with Ukraine entering a Western-Russian “war of attrition.”

Such a situation raises worry about pivotal military frictions between the major powers in Syria.

New Lines

For the first time, Israel bombed areas south of Tartus, near the Russian base and north of the Lebanese border. Israel said that its targeting had hit military assets for Hezbollah.

Before that, Tel Aviv bombed Damascus International Airport and put it out of business for days.

Russia has partially restricted Israel's movement in Syria, due to Tel Aviv's position on the Ukraine war.

Multiple military friction may occur in Syria (or Lebanon), if the overt war in Ukraine and the “shadow war” in Iran escalate.

Turkish Incursions

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is relying on his improved negotiating position after the Ukraine war, to brandish the “largest” military operation in northern Syria.

However, Erdogan’s threats were met with US rejection and warnings against destabilizing present contact lines in Syria. Also, Turkish plans were met with Russian mediation. Indeed, Moscow intensified its overt and secret contacts between Damascus and Ankara to “abort the military operation.”

Even Iran had its foreign minister perform shuttle diplomacy between Damascus and Ankara, but the last word was for Russia. The Turkish military operation has been frozen, but Erdogan's intentions are present and open the door to a possible escalation, and a minor war.

Safe Zone

Jordan talked years ago about a “safe zone” north of its border in southern Syria.

The plan was not implemented, as Russia assigned a military role to provide stability in the governorates of Daraa, Quneitra and As-Suwayda.

A few months ago, Oman initiated normalization with Damascus, proposing a “step for step” approach.

Reports indicate a Jordanian complaint about the flow of drugs and smuggling across the border, and the escalation of assassinations and chaos in the countryside of southern Syria.

What is new is that Amman has warned of a possible escalation and has threatened to re-introduce the “safe zone” plan to put pressure on Damascus and motivate Moscow to move.

This coincided with a qualitative US arming of opposition factions residing at the Al-Tanf base near borders with Jordan.

Arab Normalization of Ties with Damascus

Bilateral normalization steps between Arab capitals and Damascus continue at a slow pace.

There are those who are linking the normalization of ties with the amnesty issued by President Bashar al-Assad for those accused of “terror crimes.”

Despite the measured normalization of ties with Damascus, there still is no consensus on its return to the Arab League at the Algiers Summit next November.

What's new? There is an Algerian proposal for Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Miqdad to come to Algeria for bilateral talks in conjunction with the summit, or to invite Syria with Turkey and others as an “observer.”

However, Algeria’s proposals remain tied to developments and wars in the months preceding the summit.

Economic War

Nothing new can be mentioned about the economic crisis in Syria and the struggles people are facing to live there. The crisis is exacerbated by hiking poverty rates and the lack of root solutions.

Iranian oil tankers had arrived in the war-torn country, and part of a power station in Aleppo resumed operations.

There is also a resumption of talks about an Arab gas pipeline.

Nevertheless, there is a spike in young people and artisans migrating abroad and regime loyalists complaining that conditions in their strongholds have not improved.

What is also worth mentioning is the huge gap between “war profiteers” and “victims of war” in Syria.

There is no doubt that change will happen sooner or later at one point or another.

A “minor war” will evolve in one arena or another and victories and defeats will be measured against each other.

The “battle for living” has settled on collapses and equations that need years to be resolved and dismantled.

It will take years of steps and understandings to get Syria out of a “long dark night.”

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Amine Gemayel to Asharq Al-Awsat: At Saddam’s Request, I Tried to Prevent the American War on Iraq 

Gemayel maintained good relations with Saudi leaders from the era of King Faisal to that of King Salman. (Courtesy of Amine Gemayel)
Gemayel maintained good relations with Saudi leaders from the era of King Faisal to that of King Salman. (Courtesy of Amine Gemayel)
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Amine Gemayel to Asharq Al-Awsat: At Saddam’s Request, I Tried to Prevent the American War on Iraq 

Gemayel maintained good relations with Saudi leaders from the era of King Faisal to that of King Salman. (Courtesy of Amine Gemayel)
Gemayel maintained good relations with Saudi leaders from the era of King Faisal to that of King Salman. (Courtesy of Amine Gemayel)

Lebanese former President Amine Gemayel’s term (1982–1988) was difficult and turbulent. The Lebanese people were divided, and regional and international conflicts over Lebanon intensified. His presidency began amid the aftermath of the Israeli invasion of Beirut and the assassination of his brother, President-elect Bashir Gemayel. The difficult developments followed swiftly.

In the year following the 1982 invasion, Moscow and Damascus supported Walid Jumblatt, head of the Progressive Socialist Party, sparking the “Mountain War,” which deeply fractured the Druze–Maronite coexistence in the region. In 1984, Damascus backed Nabih Berri, head of the Amal Movement, leading to the “February 6 Intifada,” which shifted the sectarian power balance in Lebanon, which was in the throes of its 1975-1990 civil war.

Another significant event occurred in 1983 when suicide bombers attacked the barracks of the US Marines and French troops in the multinational peacekeeping force, killing hundreds and prompting Western withdrawal. Amid those explosions, Hezbollah was born—a force that would later become the most dominant player in Lebanon, particularly after inheriting Syria’s role there. During Gemayel’s term, Syria attempted to broker a “militia peace,” but the so-called “Tripartite Agreement” collapsed, paving the way for more wars and negotiation rounds.

Gemayel did not surrender to efforts aimed at controlling or isolating his presidency. He worked to maintain Lebanon’s relations with the West, strengthened ties with moderate Arab countries, and built relationships with leaders such as Iraq’s Saddam Hussein and Libya’s Moammar al-Gaddafi, as he recounts in the final part of his interview with Asharq Al-Awsat.

Amine Gemayel sits down for an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat Editor-in-Chief Ghassan Charbel. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Close relationship with Saudi Arabia and its kings

Asked about his relationship with Saudi Arabia, beginning with his visit alongside his father, Pierre, to meet King Faisal bin Abdulaziz, Gemayel said: “I’m proud of that relationship. I’m proud to have met all the kings—from King Faisal to King Salman. There isn’t one of them with whom I didn’t have a close personal relationship, and I take pride in that. Most of them had a special affection for me.”

He added: “At this time in Lebanon’s history, Saudi Arabia is the elder brother. Saudi Arabia never stabbed Lebanon in the back. It was always by Lebanon’s side through good times and bad, offering moral, social, and humanitarian support. You can’t deny that. You have to appreciate and respect those who stood by you in tough times.”

He also recounted a fond memory involving King Salman: “May God prolong his life. When he was governor of Riyadh, I used to visit him regularly. The Riyadh office knew me well. Every time I came to the Kingdom, it was expected that I’d visit the governorate.”

“Once, when I had an appointment with him, he took me to the desert to a camp of his—traditional tents, but inside one of them was a high-tech office with internet and modern communications. He told me he could contact anyone from there at any time. I asked if I could call home. He replied, ‘No.’ I was surprised. Then he said, ‘You can’t call home because your home is here.’ That’s how warm the atmosphere was. I truly appreciated his gesture.”

He continued: “In Lebanon’s difficult days, the Kingdom was always by our side. Even today—despite frustration with Lebanon’s ingratitude or Iranian influence—Saudi Arabia still has Lebanon in its heart. It waited for the first opportunity to return and help. Today’s hope in Lebanon is due to the Kingdom’s full weight and influence, working to restore Lebanon’s institutions and stability.”

Saddam’s armored car

Regarding his relationship with Saddam, Gemayel said: “It was a very warm relationship. I visited him several times in Baghdad. Once, during my presidency, there was an assassination attempt against me. He called and asked, ‘What are you doing about your security? They say you need better protection.’ I told him we were doing our best and relying on God. He said, ‘That’s not good enough—I’ll send you my car.’ The next day, his armored car arrived by plane—fully fortified inside and out.”

That relationship lasted until Saddam’s final days in power. Gemayel recalled: “On the eve of the (American) war, he sent word asking to meet. I went to Baghdad. He told me, ‘Things aren’t going well with the Americans. You have good relations with them—can you help us understand their intentions?’ I told him the issue was bigger than me. I had good contacts, but not at the presidential level anymore. He asked me to try anyway. So I went to the US, met with some people, but avoided senior officials to avoid media attention.”

Gemayel’s cousin, a top US lawyer with ties to James Baker, helped arrange a meeting: “We met Baker, who was almost retired but still influential. After a few days, he said he saw a glimmer of hope. He jokingly pulled out a stack of one-dollar bills and asked when I was born. I said December 1942. He found a bill with a serial number matching my birthdate, signed it, and gave it to me for luck. I still have it.”

Saddam Hussein welcomes Gemayel in Baghdad. (Courtesy of Amine Gemayel)

“Sadly, it didn’t work. The Americans had made up their minds. Many tried—including the Vatican—but nothing succeeded. Still, it was an effort made at Saddam’s request.”

Gemayel added: “My ties with Saddam and his team, especially Foreign Minister Tariq Aziz, remained very good. Saddam wanted to help Lebanon. But his relationship with (Syrian President) Hafez al-Assad was bad. They had mutual hatred. I still have the armored Mercedes he sent me—top-level protection, still in excellent condition.”

Asked about Saddam’s personal demeanor, Gemayel said: “Very approachable. One-on-one, there was no protocol. He was warm and engaging—you forget he’s this powerful figure. But reaching him was a maze—multiple layers of security and misdirection. You’d think you were meeting Saddam, only to find it was a lookalike. Eventually, you’d be taken to a modest house far from the airport, where the real Saddam would be waiting.”

On Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, he said: “Kuwait’s issue with Iraq is old, like Lebanon’s issue with Syria. But historical claims don’t justify violating sovereignty or erasing borders. Despite my personal ties with Saddam, we strongly opposed the invasion of Kuwait—a country with excellent relations with Lebanon. Just as we rejected Assad’s plans to annex Lebanon to Syria, we rejected Saddam’s attempt to annex Kuwait.”

Gemayel and Gaddafi: From estrangement to friendship

Gemayel’s relationship with Gaddafi began with tension but later transformed into friendship. He recalled: “When I became president, Libya, without coordination, sent military forces to Lebanon. That was illegal and against Arab League protocols. I sent Gaddafi a message demanding their withdrawal. He refused and took a hostile media stance. So I cut diplomatic ties with Libya early in my presidency.”

Later, Moroccan King Hassan II helped mediate: “I had a close relationship with King Hassan II. He invited me to a private dinner in Morocco. During the meal, he left twice—unusual for him. The second time, he returned smiling and said, ‘Gaddafi is on the phone—he wants to meet you.’ I was surprised and hesitant, especially with the issue of Imam Moussa al-Sadr still unresolved. But the king reassured me, saying Gaddafi had promised a new page. He offered his own plane and a senior minister to accompany me to guarantee safety.”

Amine Gemayel had a frosty relationship with Moammar al-Gaddafi that turned to friendship. (Courtesy of Amine Gemayel)

They traveled secretly, landed at a military airport in Libya, and met Gaddafi. Gemayel recounted: “He was extremely courteous and warm. We had a long conversation and agreed to reset relations. He asked how Libya could support Lebanon internationally. I thanked him, and flew back to Beirut.”

“But during our flight, Israeli radio reported that my plane had disappeared en route from Morocco. Panic erupted in Beirut—emergency meetings, calls to the US, plans to file complaints at the UN and Arab League. My wife was informed. She calmly said, ‘I’m not worried. Amine does these things—there must be good behind it.’ Eventually, the king reassured everyone I was fine.”

After that, Gemayel and Gaddafi maintained a cordial relationship: “He would often insist I visit. During the Arab Summit in Algiers, our seats were side by side. Gaddafi wanted a statement condemning the US raid on Tripoli that killed his adopted daughter. I proposed he draft a statement to be added to the final communiqué. I wrote it for him. He loved it.”

“There was also an issue with his tent. He refused to stay in a hotel and insisted on his tent. Algerian security and President Chadli Benjedid objected. Gaddafi threatened to leave. I mediated, and in the end, he sent the tent as a gift to my plane.”

Gaddafi never discussed the disappearance of al-Sadr with Gemayel. Gemayel said Syrian intelligence had reportedly played a role in the disappearance, as it controlled Libyan airports at the time. The mass popularity of al-Sadr was said to have disturbed the Syrian regime because his vision for Lebanon’s Shiites conflicted with Syria’s agenda.

Despite all the hardships of his presidency, Gemayel said he harbors no bitterness: “I have peace of mind knowing I stayed true to national principles and did my best.”

He expressed satisfaction with his son Sami Gemayel’s political path as a lawmaker and head of the Kataeb Party, and praised President Joseph Aoun’s guidance of the army and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s professional record—wishing success for the current leadership in Lebanon.