What’s Driving the Power Struggle in Iraq?

31 July 2022, Iraq, Baghdad: Supporters of Iraq's influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr occupy a hall inside the Iraqi parliament after they broke into the building on Saturday amid political deadlock in the country. (dpa)
31 July 2022, Iraq, Baghdad: Supporters of Iraq's influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr occupy a hall inside the Iraqi parliament after they broke into the building on Saturday amid political deadlock in the country. (dpa)
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What’s Driving the Power Struggle in Iraq?

31 July 2022, Iraq, Baghdad: Supporters of Iraq's influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr occupy a hall inside the Iraqi parliament after they broke into the building on Saturday amid political deadlock in the country. (dpa)
31 July 2022, Iraq, Baghdad: Supporters of Iraq's influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr occupy a hall inside the Iraqi parliament after they broke into the building on Saturday amid political deadlock in the country. (dpa)

A power struggle in Iraq between the influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and Iran-backed Shiite rivals has escalated with his supporters breaking into parliament and beginning an open-ended sit-in protest.

The tussle over who gets to form the next government has deepened a fissure in the Shiite community that has dominated Iraqi politics since the US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003.

What is the background to the rivalry, why has it escalated, what does this mean for Iraq and what are the risks of violence?

Who are Sadr and his rivals?

Heir to a prominent clerical dynasty, Sadr is a populist with a fiercely loyal support base and a track record of radical action, including fighting US forces after the invasion and clashing with Iraqi authorities.

He commanded a powerful militia, the Mehdi Army, in the years after the invasion, but officially disbanded it in 2008. Its successor, the Peace Brigades, retains thousands of armed fighters.

He exercises big sway in the state, where his supporters hold many positions. He has emphasized his credentials as an Iraqi nationalist in recent years, opposing the influence of both the United States and Iran.

His Shiite rivals form an alliance called the Coordination Framework, which includes Tehran-aligned politicians such as former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki and paramilitary groups armed and trained by Iran.

Each side accuses the other of corruption.

Why has the standoff escalated?

Tensions have worsened since an October election in which Sadr's movement emerged as the biggest bloc with 74 of parliament's 329 seats and the Iran-backed factions' share slumped to 17 from a previous 48.

After failing to overturn the result in the courts, the Iran-backed factions set about stymying Sadr's efforts to form a government that would include his Kurdish and Sunni Arab allies but exclude groups he described as corrupt or loyal to Tehran.

Despite their diminished numbers in parliament, the Iran-aligned groups managed to frustrate Sadr by denying the two-thirds quorum needed to elect a Kurdish head of state - the first step towards forming a government.

Frustrated at the deadlock, Sadr instructed his lawmakers to quit parliament in June. The move ceded dozens of seats to the Coordination Framework, meaning it could try to form a government of its choosing, though this would risk Sadr's wrath.

Eyeing a comeback, Sadr rival Maliki put himself forward to be prime minister - a post that must go to a Shiite in Iraq's political system - but retreated after Sadr criticized him on Twitter.

Sadr's rivals then floated another candidate, Mohammed Shiya al-Sudani, seen by Sadr's supporters as a Maliki loyalist. This step appears to have been the final straw for Sadr supporters, igniting the protests.

What does this mean for Iraq?

Iraq has now gone more than nine months without a new government - a record in the post-Saddam era.

The standoff adds to political dysfunction in a country suffering dire public services, high poverty and widespread unemployment despite huge oil wealth and no major conflict since ISIS’s defeat five years ago.

At a time when soaring crude prices have boosted Iraq's oil revenues to record highs, the government has no budget for 2022 and spending on much-needed infrastructure projects and economic reforms has been delayed.

Ordinary Iraqis meanwhile suffer power and water cuts. The World Food Program says 2.4 million of the population of 39 million are in acute need of food and livelihood assistance.

The paralysis is diverting attention from problems including soaring global food prices, drought and the lingering threat posed by ISIS.

Outgoing Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi continues in a caretaker role for now.

What are the chances of violence?

A call by the Coordination Framework for its supporters to rally on Sunday gave rise to concerns of confrontation in the streets, but it then cancelled the demonstrations.

The United Nations has called for a de-escalation, saying "voices of reason and wisdom are critical to prevent further violence". Many Iraqi leaders have also called for the preservation of civil peace.

Sadr has vowed peaceful political action, but is backed up by the armed Peace Brigades and many of his civilian followers keep weapons, stoking fears of armed clashes if the standoff escalates.

Conflict among Iraqi Shiites would be bad news for Iran, which has carved out major influence in Iraq through its Shiite allies since the United States toppled its foe Saddam.

Iran, which has yet to comment on the latest developments, has previously intervened to quell internal unrest in Iraq.



What Is the ‘Shiite Duo’s’ Problem with Salam’s Appointment as Lebanon’s PM?

Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam waves as he arrives to meet with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun (not pictured) at the Presidential Palace in Baabda, Lebanon, 14 January 2025. (EPA)
Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam waves as he arrives to meet with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun (not pictured) at the Presidential Palace in Baabda, Lebanon, 14 January 2025. (EPA)
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What Is the ‘Shiite Duo’s’ Problem with Salam’s Appointment as Lebanon’s PM?

Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam waves as he arrives to meet with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun (not pictured) at the Presidential Palace in Baabda, Lebanon, 14 January 2025. (EPA)
Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam waves as he arrives to meet with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun (not pictured) at the Presidential Palace in Baabda, Lebanon, 14 January 2025. (EPA)

Several observers have questioned the strong opposition by the “Shiite duo” of Hezbollah and the Amal movement of the appointment of Nawaf Salam as Lebanon’s prime minister.

Head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc MP Mohammed Raad went so far on Monday to declare that the party had been “deceived with the aim of creating division and exclusion” in the country.

Salam was named prime minister on Monday after earning 84 votes from parliamentary blocs. His predecessor Najib Mikati received nine, while the Shiite duo abstained from naming anyone.

Back in 2023, the duo had agreed to a so-called “French initiative” that suggested the election of Hezbollah and Amal’s candidate Suleiman Franjieh as president in exchange for Salam to be named prime minister.

Salam, who in February 2024 was named head of the International Court of Justice, boasts a long history of opposing Israel, which should have earned him Hezbollah’s strong support. He resigned from the post after being designated prime minister.

Figures close to the duo said that one of the issues Hezbollah has with Salam is that since the October 2019 anti-government protests in Lebanon, he has been viewed as the opposition and West’s candidate for the position of prime minister.

Political anlayst Dr. Kassem Kassir told Asharq Al-Awsat that Hezbollah and Amal don’t view Salam as a rival as they had agreed to his nomination in line with the French initiative.

The problem, however, lies in how he was nominated. He explained that internal and foreign forces had reached an agreement that would see Joseph Aoun elected president and Mikati named prime minister, he said.

However, it appears that some sort of internal and foreign “coup” had taken place and that led to Salam’s nomination and appointment, he remarked.

On whether the dispute can be resolved, Kassir said “positive stances” during the government formation process may tackle the issue.

“The Shiite duo fear that there may be an agenda aimed at excluding its influential role in political life,” he added.

A handout photo made available by the Lebanese Presidency Press Office shows Lebanese President Joseph Aoun (L) speaking with Lebanese parliament Speaker Nabih Berri (R) during a meeting at the Presidential Palace in Baabda, Lebanon, 14 January 2025. (Lebanese Presidency Press Office)

Hezbollah had warned on Monday that Salam’s government may be “unconstitutional” should it fail to meet its demands and aspirations.

Raad said: “We have the right to demand the formation of a constitutional government. A government that violates joint coexistence is not legal.”

Constitutional expert Dr. Saeed Malek said “constitutionality” is one of the foundations of Lebanon’s political system.

The constitution clearly states that there can be no legitimacy to an authority that violates mutual coexistence, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

However, the issue of “constitutionality” must not be brought up when a certain party wants to deliver a political message and prevent the remaining parties from building a state and practicing their rights, he stressed.

“Yes, the Shiite duo does represent Shiites in Lebanon, but they don’t represent all Lebanese Shiites. The community boasts figures who enrich the Shiite sect, so a government can be formed with them,” Kassir said.

“A government would be unconstitutional if not a single Shiite figure is represented in it,” he underlined.

On whether the government needs the vote of confidence of the Shiite MPs, he said the constitution does not stipulate that a cabinet needs the vote of all segments. “It simply says that it needs the vote of confidence,” he added.

“At the end of the day, the issue of ‘constitutionality’ is a right, but one must not exploit this right with the aim to obstruct state functioning and the formation of a government,” Malek stressed.

“No party has the right to obstruct a new presidential term under the pretext of ‘constitutionality’,” he stated.