What Impact Will GERD’s Filling Have?

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
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What Impact Will GERD’s Filling Have?

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

Since the project was launched in 2011, a controversial Ethiopian dam has been raising tensions as Egypt and Sudan fear for their share of the Nile’s water and the social and economic repercussions of Ethiopia’s actions.

The ramifications of Addis Ababa moving forward with the third filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has deeply unsettled Cairo and Khartoum, which has announced a state of “maximum alert.”

After Cairo received a letter from Ethiopia on July 26 that stated it would continue to fill GERD during this flood season- acting unilaterally and before having reached an agreement- it responded by filing a complaint with the UN Security Council on Friday.

GERD Project Manager, Kifle Horo, has himself admitted that the shares of Egypt and Sudan could be undermined by the filling in an official statement about two months ago.

According to experts, Addis Ababa will fill GERD with approximately five additional billion cubic meters of water, which reduces Egypt's water supply.

Professor of Geology and Water Resources at Cairo University Dr. Abbas Sharaki says that any water stored in the GERD, whether a large or small quantity, is Egyptian-Sudanese water.

If used in agriculture, this water would bring in one billion dollars for every billion cubic meters. It is enough to water 1.1 million feddans of rice fields, and the cost of building water treatment plants to reuse agricultural drainage water, lining canals, developing field irrigation, and expanding greenhouses, among other processes, is extremely high, billions of Egyptian Pounds.

In Sudan, there is panic over the operation of dams, and there are fears of decreased agricultural productivity as a result of silt storage, rising groundwater, and increased costs of agricultural activity because of the need to use additional fertilizers.

In a study he published, Sharaki made several conclusions about the political damage Ethiopia is doing, saying it “is continuing to impose the framework that suits it on the ground, take unilateral decisions, and break international agreements, the Declaration of Principles Agreement it signed in 2015, and the Security Council’s (September 2021) statement.”

He warned that Ethiopia could continue to take similar actions on other projects in the future.

Sharaki goes as far as saying the matter “threatens peace and security in the region, especially after the holding capacity of GERD increased sevenfold.”

In case of a flood, the lives of 20 million Sudanese living by the Nile would be threatened and destroyed, he said.

The Egyptian expert added that the dam could upend the lives of millions of Sudanese farmers “who use simple and inexpensive flood farming methods, depending on the floods of the Blue Nile flowing to both banks in low and flat lands.”

Ethiopia’s insistence on acting unilaterally and disregarding the objections of both Sudan and Egypt has left farmers in both countries fuming, he said.

“More water will evaporate as the lake of GERD rises and the rocks surrounding GERD leak into the reservoir. The trees drowning in the lake will die out and undermine the quality of the water, and the biodiversity in the area will be reduced.”

Addis Ababa has claimed the dam will be among the largest in Africa, and reduced its production from 6,500 to 5,000 megawatts- twice Ethiopia's current levels. It is expected to reach full production capacity in 2024.

Meanwhile Khartoum and Cairo have demanded that Ethiopia compromise to agree to a framework that organizes the GERD’s operation and filling in order to safeguard the shared interests of the three countries.



Russia Skirts Western Sanctions to Ramp up Its Military Footprint in Africa 

This satellite image provided by Planet Labs PBC shows trucks lined up on a dock as the Russian-flagged cargo ship, Siyanie Severa, unloads its cargo, May 29, 2025, in Bata, Equatorial Guinea. (Planet Labs PBC via AP)
This satellite image provided by Planet Labs PBC shows trucks lined up on a dock as the Russian-flagged cargo ship, Siyanie Severa, unloads its cargo, May 29, 2025, in Bata, Equatorial Guinea. (Planet Labs PBC via AP)
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Russia Skirts Western Sanctions to Ramp up Its Military Footprint in Africa 

This satellite image provided by Planet Labs PBC shows trucks lined up on a dock as the Russian-flagged cargo ship, Siyanie Severa, unloads its cargo, May 29, 2025, in Bata, Equatorial Guinea. (Planet Labs PBC via AP)
This satellite image provided by Planet Labs PBC shows trucks lined up on a dock as the Russian-flagged cargo ship, Siyanie Severa, unloads its cargo, May 29, 2025, in Bata, Equatorial Guinea. (Planet Labs PBC via AP)

Even as it pounds Ukraine, Russia is expanding its military footprint in Africa, delivering sophisticated weaponry to sub-Saharan conflict zones where a Kremlin-controlled armed force is on the rise. Skirting sanctions imposed by Western nations, Moscow is using cargo ships to send tanks, armored vehicles, artillery and other high-value equipment to West Africa, The Associated Press has found.

Relying on satellite imagery and radio signals, AP tracked a convoy of Russian-flagged cargo ships as they made a nearly one-month journey from the Baltic Sea. The ships carried howitzers, radio jamming equipment and other military hardware, according to military officials in Europe who closely monitored them. The deliveries could strengthen Russia’s fledgling Africa Corps as Moscow competes with the United States, Europe and China for greater influence across the continent.

The two-year-old Africa Corps, which has links to a covert branch of Russia’s army, is ascendant at a time when US and European troops have been withdrawing from the region, forced out by sub-Saharan nations turning to Russia for security.

Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have been battling fighters linked with al-Qaeda and the ISIS group for more than a decade.

At first, mercenary groups with an arms-length relationship to the Kremlin entered the fray in Africa. But increasingly, Russia is deploying its military might, and intelligence services, more directly.

"We intend to expand our cooperation with African countries in all spheres, with an emphasis on economic cooperation and investments," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. "This cooperation includes sensitive areas linked to defense and security."

From the ports, Russian weapons are trucked to Mali Russia's 8,800-ton Baltic Leader and 5,800-ton Patria are among hundreds of ships that Western nations have sanctioned to choke off resources for Russia's war in Ukraine. The ships docked and unloaded in Conakry, Guinea, in late May, AP satellite images showed.

Other ships made deliveries to the same port in January. They delivered tanks, armored vehicles and other hardware that was then trucked overland to neighboring Mali, according to European military officials and a Malian blogger's video of the long convoy.

The military officials spoke to AP about Russian operations on condition of anonymity. The AP verified the blogger's video, geolocating it to the RN5 highway leading into Bamako, the Malian capital.

After the latest delivery in Conakry, trucks carrying Russian-made armored vehicles, howitzers and other equipment were again spotted on the overland route to Mali.

Malian broadcaster ORTM confirmed that the West African nation's army took delivery of new military equipment. AP analysis of its video and images filmed by the Malian blogger in the same spot as the January delivery identified a broad array of Russian-made hardware, including 152 mm artillery guns and other smaller canons.

AP also identified a wheeled, BTR-80 armored troop carrier with radio-jamming equipment, as well as Spartak armored vehicles and other armored carriers, some mounted with guns. The shipment also included at least two semi-inflatable small boats, one with a Russian flag painted on its hull, as well as tanker trucks, some marked "inflammable" in Russian on their sides.

The military officials who spoke to AP said they believe Russia has earmarked the most potent equipment — notably the artillery and jamming equipment — for its Africa Corps, not Malian armed forces. Africa Corps appears to have been given air power, too, with satellites spotting at least one Su-24 fighter-bomber at a Bamako air base in recent months.

Moscow's notorious secret unit

For years, French forces supported counterinsurgency operations in Mali and neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger. But France pulled out its troops after coups in Mali in 2020 and 2021, in Burkina Faso in 2022 and Niger in 2023. Russian mercenaries stepped into the vacuum.

Wagner Group, the most notable, deployed to Sudan in 2017 and expanded to other African countries, often in exchange for mining concessions.

It earned a reputation for brutality, accused by Western countries and UN experts of human rights abuses, including in Central African Republic, Libya and Mali.

Of 33 African countries in which Russian military contractors were active, the majority were Wagner-controlled, according to US government-sponsored research by RAND.

But after Wagner forces mutinied in Russia in 2023 and their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was killed two months later in a suspicious plane crash, Moscow tightened its grip. Russian military operations in Africa were restructured, with the Kremlin taking greater control through Africa Corps.

It is overseen by the commander of Unit 29155, one of the most notorious branches of Russia’s shadowy GRU military intelligence service, according to the European Union. Unit 29155 has been accused of covertly attacking Western interests for years, including through sabotage and assassination attempts.

The EU in December targeted Unit 29155 Maj. Gen. Andrey Averyanov with sanctions, alleging that he is in charge of Africa Corps operations.

"In many African countries, Russian forces provide security to military juntas that have overthrown legitimate democratic governments, gravely worsening the stability, security and democracy of the countries," the EU sanctions ruling said. These operations are financed by exploiting the continent's natural resources, the ruling added.

The Russian Ministry of Defense didn’t immediately respond to questions about Averyanov’s role in Africa Corps.

Africa Corps recruitment

Researchers and military officials say the flow of weapons from Russia appears to be speeding Africa Corps’ ascendancy over Wagner, helping it win over mercenaries that have remained loyal to the group. Africa Corps is also recruiting in Russia, offering payments of up to 2.1 million rubles ($26,500), and even plots of land, for signing a contract with the Ministry of Defense, plus more on deployment.

Within days of the latest equipment delivery, Wagner announced its withdrawal from Mali, declaring "mission accomplished" in a Telegram post.

Africa Corps said in a separate post that it would remain.

The changeover from Wagner to Africa Corps in Mali could be a forerunner for other similar transitions elsewhere on the continent, said Julia Stanyard, a researcher of Russian mercenary activity in Africa.

"Bringing in this sort of brand-new sophisticated weaponry, and new armored vehicles and that sort of thing, is quite a bit of a shift," said Stanyard, of the Switzerland-based Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime.

Armed groups in Mali have inflicted heavy losses on Malian troops and Russian mercenaries. The al-Qaeda linked group JNIM killed dozens of soldiers in an attack this month on a military base. Insurgents also killed dozens of Wagner mercenaries in northern Mali last July.