Arab Summit Faces Regional Crises... Can it Offer Permanent or Temporary Solutions?

Family photo of Arab leaders during the Tunisia 2019 Arab Summit. (Egyptian Presidency)
Family photo of Arab leaders during the Tunisia 2019 Arab Summit. (Egyptian Presidency)
TT

Arab Summit Faces Regional Crises... Can it Offer Permanent or Temporary Solutions?

Family photo of Arab leaders during the Tunisia 2019 Arab Summit. (Egyptian Presidency)
Family photo of Arab leaders during the Tunisia 2019 Arab Summit. (Egyptian Presidency)

The current crises in the Arab region have raised questions whether the upcoming Arab summit in Algeria will be able to reach solutions, even if temporary, to them.

Arab officials have stressed that their countries are facing “major challenges” and that the “reunion” summit is being held in “difficult circumstances”.

Algeria is still sending out invitations to the 31st regular Arab League summit set for November 1 and 2.

Algerian newspaper Echorouk said President Abdelmadjid Tebboune has so far sent invitations to 16 Arab leaders, including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Tunisia, Egypt, Palestine, Mauritania, Iraq, Djibouti, Sudan, Lebanon, and Libya.

The Algerian newspaper, L'Expression, confirmed in its editorial Tuesday that doubts about holding the summit on time have dissipated.

The daily indicated that the summit would witness significant representation, as the majority of the leaders have confirmed their attendance, noting that the first day of the conference coincides with the anniversary of the Algerian Revolution.

Over the past weeks, the Arab summit has been the subject of debate, with many issues seen as obstacles to convening the meeting on time.

Arab League Secretary-General, Ahmed Aboul Gheit set the debate to rest by declaring to the press that it was finally agreed to hold the summit in Algeria, underscoring its importance, especially after three years of suspension due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

He denied claims that the summit will be postponed or held in another country, revealing that Syria has chosen to skip this year's conference.

The reinstatement of Syria’s membership in the Arab League was one of the points of contention ahead of the summit. Algeria had insisted on restoring it to the organization, but its calls have been met with a tepid reception.

The summit has already been postponed before.

The last time the League held a regular in person summit was in Tunisia in 2019.

In past remarks, Aboul Gheit highlighted the challenges facing the Arab world. He remarked that the war in Syria is unlikely to be resolved any time soon, Iraq is still without a government despite having held elections months ago, and the Libyan capital Tripoli has witnessed renewed clashes between rival militias.

Algeria wants the Palestinian-Israeli conflict to be at the heart of discussions at the summit. Palestinian Ambassador to Algeria Fayez Abu Aita described the event as "exceptional" because it seeks to bring serious outcomes that restore balance to the Arab region.

The ambassador said in statements carried by the Algerian news agency that Palestinians are looking forward to the summit and highly commend Algerian diplomacy and its support to the Palestinian cause.

Expert at the al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, Said Okasha believes results of previous Arab summits make it difficult to expect any permanent or temporary solutions to the region's problems during this year's conference.

Okasha told Asharq Al-Awsat that many Arab nations have changed their view on national security, basing it on the safety of each state separately, with the possibility of interacting with other countries with common interests in mind.

He indicated that Arab countries are facing different sources of threat, such as terrorism, internal crises, economic challenges, and others, which they view as a priority over joint Arab action.

Algerian journalist and political analyst Nouredine Khettal noted it was difficult for the summit to succeed in resolving Arab issues for two possible reasons.

The first is the extent of the problems across the region, stretching from Iraq to Morocco. The second is the growing strength of the enemies of Arabism in several Arab countries. Such movements work on impeding all intra-Arab efforts, he remarked.

Khettal told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Arab summit is an opportunity to clear the air, adding that bridging the gap and resolving intra-Arab disputes is difficult, but possible.

He recalled the successful efforts to resolve the dispute between Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, and Qatar, citing the recent visit of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to Doha after years of differences.



Trump’s Erratic Foreign Policy to Meet ‘A World on Fire’

 Republican presidential nominee and former US President Donald Trump appears on a congratulatory billboard for the 2024 US presidential election, in Tel Aviv, Israel, November 6, 2024. (Reuters)
Republican presidential nominee and former US President Donald Trump appears on a congratulatory billboard for the 2024 US presidential election, in Tel Aviv, Israel, November 6, 2024. (Reuters)
TT

Trump’s Erratic Foreign Policy to Meet ‘A World on Fire’

 Republican presidential nominee and former US President Donald Trump appears on a congratulatory billboard for the 2024 US presidential election, in Tel Aviv, Israel, November 6, 2024. (Reuters)
Republican presidential nominee and former US President Donald Trump appears on a congratulatory billboard for the 2024 US presidential election, in Tel Aviv, Israel, November 6, 2024. (Reuters)

While campaigning to regain the US presidency, Donald Trump said that he would be able to end Russia's war in Ukraine in 24 hours, warned that Israel would be "eradicated" if he lost the election and vowed sweeping new tariffs on Chinese imports.

Now that Trump has claimed victory, many at home and abroad are asking an urgent question: will he make good on his long list of foreign policy threats, promises and pronouncements?

The Republican has offered few foreign policy specifics, but supporters say the force of his personality and his “peace through strength” approach will help bend foreign leaders to his will and calm what Republicans describe as a "world on fire".

They blame the global crises on weakness shown by President Joe Biden, though his fellow Democrats reject that accusation.

America’s friends and foes alike remain wary as they await Trump’s return to office in January, wondering whether his second term will be filled with the kind of turbulence and unpredictability that characterized his first four years.

Trump’s 2017-2021 presidency was often defined on the world stage by his "America First" protectionist trade policy and isolationist rhetoric, including threats to withdraw from NATO.

At the same time, he sought to parlay his self-styled image as a deal-making businessman by holding summits with North Korea, which ultimately failed to halt its nuclear weapons program, and brokering normalization talks between Israel and some Arab countries, which achieved a measure of success.

"Donald Trump remains erratic and inconsistent when it comes to foreign policy," analysts for the European Council on Foreign Relations wrote in a blog post during the US campaign.

"Europeans are still licking their wounds from Trump’s first term: they have not forgotten the former president’s tariffs, his deep antagonism towards the European Union and Germany," they said.

Trump and his loyalists dismiss such criticism, insisting that other countries have long taken advantage of the US and that he would put a stop to it.

ENDING THE UKRAINE WAR

How Trump responds to Russia’s war in Ukraine could set the tone for his agenda and signal how he will deal with NATO and key US allies, after Biden worked to rebuild key relationships that frayed under his predecessor.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy congratulated Trump on social network X, describing Trump's peace-through-strength approach as a "principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer".

Trump insisted last year that Russian President Vladimir Putin never would have invaded Ukraine in 2022 if he had been in the White House, adding that “even now I could solve that in 24 hours”. But he has not said how he would do so.

He has been critical of Biden's support for Ukraine and said that under his presidency the US would fundamentally rethink NATO's purpose. He told Reuters last year that Ukraine may have to cede territory to reach a peace agreement, something the Ukrainians reject and Biden has never suggested.

NATO, which backs Ukraine, is also under threat.

Trump, who has railed for years against NATO members that failed to meet agreed military spending targets, warned during the campaign that he would not only refuse to defend nations "delinquent" on funding but would encourage Russia “to do whatever the hell they want” to them.

"NATO would face the most serious existential threat since its founding," said Brett Bruen, a former foreign policy adviser in the Obama administration.

A FREER HAND FOR ISRAEL?

Trump will also confront a volatile Middle East that threatens to descend into a broader regional conflict. Israel is fighting wars in Gaza and Lebanon while facing off against arch-foe Iran, even as Yemen’s Houthis fire on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.

He has expressed support for Israel’s fight to destroy Hamas in the Palestinian enclave but has said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a Trump ally widely believed to have favored his return to power, must finish the job quickly.

Trump is expected to continue arming Israel, whose existence he said would have been endangered if Harris had been elected - a claim dismissed by the Biden administration given its staunch support for Israel.

His policy toward Israel likely will have no strings attached for humanitarian concerns, in contrast to pressure that Biden applied in a limited way. Trump may give Netanyahu a freer hand with Iran.

But Trump could face a new crisis if Iran, which has stepped up nuclear activities since he abandoned a nuclear deal with Tehran in 2018, rushes to develop a nuclear weapon.

When Trump was last in the White House, he presided over the signing of the Abraham Accords between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. But those diplomatic deals did nothing to advance Palestinian statehood in the West Bank and Gaza.

MIXED MESSAGES ON CHINA

Trump made a tough stance toward China central to his campaign, suggesting he would ramp up tariffs on Chinese goods as part of a broader effort that could also hit products from the EU. Many economists say such moves would lead to higher prices for US consumers and sow global financial instability.

He has threatened to go further than his first term when he implemented a sometimes chaotic approach to China that plunged the world's two biggest economies into a trade war.

But just as before, Trump has presented a mixed message, describing Chinese President Xi Jinping as “brilliant" for ruling with an “iron fist”.

Trump has also insisted that Taiwan should pay the US for defense. But he has said China would never dare to invade democratically governed Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its territory, if he were president.

Another unknown is how Trump will craft his national security team, though many critics believe he will avoid bringing in mainstream Republicans who sometimes acted as "guardrails" in his first term.

Many former top aides, including ex-national security adviser John Bolton and his first chief of staff John Kelly, broke with him before the election, calling him unfit for office.

Trump has been quiet about whom he might appoint but sources with knowledge of the matter say Robert O'Brien, his final national security adviser, is likely to play a significant role.

Trump is expected to install loyalists in key positions in the Pentagon, State Department and CIA whose primary allegiance would be to him, current and former aides and diplomats told Reuters.

The result, they say, would enable Trump to make sweeping changes to policy as well as to federal institutions that implement - and sometimes constrain - presidential actions abroad.