Lebanon’s Northern Coasts Transform to Platform for Smuggling Migrants

Lebanese ambulances prepare to cross to Syria to retrieve the bodies of the victims of a sinking boat (EPA)
Lebanese ambulances prepare to cross to Syria to retrieve the bodies of the victims of a sinking boat (EPA)
TT

Lebanon’s Northern Coasts Transform to Platform for Smuggling Migrants

Lebanese ambulances prepare to cross to Syria to retrieve the bodies of the victims of a sinking boat (EPA)
Lebanese ambulances prepare to cross to Syria to retrieve the bodies of the victims of a sinking boat (EPA)

Lebanon’s northern region has been transformed into a trafficking hub for migrants looking to escape the country on “death boats” that sail across the Mediterranean nation’s open waters.

Smuggling migrants has become an organized and profitable crime pursued by Lebanese, Syrian and Palestinian nationals. Lebanese authorities, with their modest capabilities, cannot fully put an end to the illegal activity.

Authorities cannot face the overwhelming volume of repeated smuggling operations that take place daily. Additionally, authorities must deal with misleading mechanisms used by smugglers.

The tragedy of the boat that sank off the Syrian coast on Thursday and resulted in dozens of deaths has pressed for opening the file of illegal migration that departs from Lebanon.

“It is no longer a matter of individual operations,” a security source told Asharq Al-Awsat, adding that the matter has snowballed into a “cross-border organized operation.”

Observers point out to the difficulty of knowing how many people are trying to make the voyage across Lebanese waters.

“We get lost whenever we try to figure out who rode on which boat,” observers noted, adding that the process of keeping up with the smugglers has become a “complicated process.”

Describing the northern Lebanese coasts as a “staging platform” has become a term agreed upon by politicians, security personnel, and observers of this file as migrant boats continue to frequently depart from Lebanese shores.

While authorities sometimes succeed in thwarting escape attempts, some smugglers manage to reach their destination which is usually either Italy, Greece, or Cyprus.

Local sources in Lebanon’s northern city of Tripoli told Asharq Al-Awsat that migrant smuggling operations “are taking place in an escalating manner.”

“In the beginning, the boats were small fishing boats carrying twenty or thirty people, but now the situation has changed, and each trip carries more than fifty people,” explained the sources.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
TT

What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.