Oil Price Dips as Dollar Strengthens, Demand Weakens

Storage tanks are seen at Marathon Petroleum's Los Angeles Refinery, which processes domestic & imported crude oil into California Air Resources Board (CARB) gasoline, CARB diesel fuel, and other petroleum products, in Carson, California, US, March 11, 2022. Picture taken with a drone. REUTERS/Bing Guan/File Photo
Storage tanks are seen at Marathon Petroleum's Los Angeles Refinery, which processes domestic & imported crude oil into California Air Resources Board (CARB) gasoline, CARB diesel fuel, and other petroleum products, in Carson, California, US, March 11, 2022. Picture taken with a drone. REUTERS/Bing Guan/File Photo
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Oil Price Dips as Dollar Strengthens, Demand Weakens

Storage tanks are seen at Marathon Petroleum's Los Angeles Refinery, which processes domestic & imported crude oil into California Air Resources Board (CARB) gasoline, CARB diesel fuel, and other petroleum products, in Carson, California, US, March 11, 2022. Picture taken with a drone. REUTERS/Bing Guan/File Photo
Storage tanks are seen at Marathon Petroleum's Los Angeles Refinery, which processes domestic & imported crude oil into California Air Resources Board (CARB) gasoline, CARB diesel fuel, and other petroleum products, in Carson, California, US, March 11, 2022. Picture taken with a drone. REUTERS/Bing Guan/File Photo

Oil prices retreated slightly on Thursday after gaining more than $3 in the prior session, with a strong dollar capping oil demand from buyers using other currencies and concerns over the faltering economic outlook clouding market sentiment.

Brent crude futures fell 41 cents, or 0.5%, to $88.91 per barrel by 0337 GMT while US crude futures dropped by 35 cents, or 0.4%, to $81.80.

Both benchmarks had rebounded in the prior two sessions after reaching nine-month lows this week after a temporary dive in the dollar index and a larger-than-expected drawdown of US fuel inventory raised hopes of a consumer demand recovery.

However, the dollar index trended upward again on Thursday, dampening investor risk appetite and stoking fears of a global recession.

The Bank of England said it is committed to buying as many long-dated government bonds, know as gilts, as needed between Wednesday and Oct. 14 to stabilize its currency after the British government's budgetary plans announced last week caused the sterling to tumble.

Goldman Sachs cut its 2023 oil price forecast on Tuesday, citing expectations of weaker demand and a stronger US dollar, but said global supply disappointments reinforced its long-term bullish outlook.

In China, the world's biggest crude oil importer, travel during the week-long national holiday is set to hit the lowest level in years as Beijing's persistent zero-COVID rules prompt people to stay at home and economic woes dampen spending.

Citi economists have lowered their China GDP forecast from 5% year-on-year growth to 4.6% for the fourth quarter of 2022, Reuters reported.

"Stringent zero-COVID measures and a weak property sector continue to cloud growth prospects," Citi analysts wrote in a note on Wednesday.

On the other side of the world, the European Union proposed a new round of sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, including tighter trade restrictions, more individual blacklistings and an oil price cap for third countries.

But the bloc's 27 member countries will need to overcome their own differences to implement them.



World Bank Raises China's GDP Forecast for 2024, 2025

World Bank Raises China's GDP Forecast for 2024, 2025
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World Bank Raises China's GDP Forecast for 2024, 2025

World Bank Raises China's GDP Forecast for 2024, 2025

The World Bank raised on Thursday its forecast for China's economic growth in 2024 and 2025, but warned that subdued household and business confidence, along with headwinds in the property sector, would keep weighing it down next year.
The world's second-biggest economy has struggled this year, mainly due to a property crisis and tepid domestic demand. An expected hike in US tariffs on its goods when US President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January may also hit growth.
"Addressing challenges in the property sector, strengthening social safety nets, and improving local government finances will be essential to unlocking a sustained recovery," Mara Warwick, the World Bank's country director for China, said.
"It is important to balance short-term support to growth with long-term structural reforms," she added in a statement.
Thanks to the effect of recent policy easing and near-term export strength, the World Bank sees China's gross domestic product growth at 4.9% this year, up from its June forecast of 4.8%.
Beijing set a growth target of "around 5%" this year, a goal it says it is confident of achieving.
Although growth for 2025 is also expected to fall to 4.5%, that is still higher than the World Bank's earlier forecast of 4.1%.
Slower household income growth and the negative wealth effect from lower home prices are expected to weigh on consumption into 2025, the Bank added.
To revive growth, Chinese authorities have agreed to issue a record 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds next year, Reuters reported this week.
The figures will not be officially unveiled until the annual meeting of China's parliament, the National People's Congress, in March 2025, and could still change before then.
While the housing regulator will continue efforts to stem further declines in China's real estate market next year, the World Bank said a turnaround in the sector was not anticipated until late 2025.
China's middle class has expanded significantly since the 2010s, encompassing 32% of the population in 2021, but World Bank estimates suggest about 55% remain "economically insecure", underscoring the need to generate opportunities.