Analysts: Iran's 'Civil War' Warning May Presage Bloodier Crackdown

Fears that Iran is sliding into deeper violence have grown
Fears that Iran is sliding into deeper violence have grown
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Analysts: Iran's 'Civil War' Warning May Presage Bloodier Crackdown

Fears that Iran is sliding into deeper violence have grown
Fears that Iran is sliding into deeper violence have grown

Iran has accused foreign foes of trying to spark "civil war" by stoking the protests over Mahsa Amini's death -- harsh language that, analysts warn, could presage an even bloodier crackdown.

Fears that Iran is sliding into deeper violence have grown since Wednesday, when assailants on motorcycles gunned down nine people -- including a woman and two boys aged nine and 13 -- in two mysterious attacks.

Officials in Iran were quick to accuse "terrorists" backed by its Western enemies of being behind the attacks in the southern cities of Izeh and Isfahan, which authorities said also left dead two security personnel.

It was the second attack Iran has blamed on what it labels terrorists since the protests erupted, after at least 13 people were killed at a shrine in Shiraz, another city in southern Iran, in an October 26 mass shooting claimed by ISIS.

Analysts say however that, regardless of who carried out the latest attacks, they could result in an even bloodier response to the protests that erupted after Amini's death on September 16, following her arrest for an alleged breach of Iran's dress code for women.

"We don't have a good sense of what happened in Izeh and Isfahan -- was it a terrorist group, or potentially the regime itself?" said Henry Rome, an Iran expert at the Washington Institute.

"Either way, the government will probably use the attacks to send the message that the protests are undermining national security and opening the door for Western-backed terrorism," he told AFP.

"The government is likely attempting to tap into fears that Iran could be on the path to civil war and that stronger action is needed."

Following Wednesday's twin attacks, Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abollahian accused Israel and its Western allies of plotting a "civil war" in Iran.

Security services, Israel and Western politicians had "made plans for a civil war and the destruction and disintegration of Iran", he tweeted, adding that they "must know that Iran is not Libya or Sudan".

Fars news agency, which is close to Iran's authorities, said Wednesday's attacks showed "those who want to dismantle the country are aiming to incite a civil war".

At least 342 people, including 43 children and 26 women, have been killed in the crackdown since Amini's death, the Norway-based group Iran Human Rights said Wednesday.

Protesters had been killed in 22 of Iran's 31 provinces, it said, including 123 in Sistan-Baluchistan and 32 in Kurdistan.

The regime's crackdown in the wake of the attack in Izeh, a city in ethnically diverse Khuzestan province, "follows a broader trend line of greater police brutality in historically restive provinces, particularly those with large populations of marginalized ethnic minorities", said Kita Fitzpatrick, an Iran analyst at the Critical Threats Project of the American Enterprise Institute.

Groups like ISIS "may very well be attempting to capitalize on protests to carry out attacks within Iranian borders," she told AFP.

But, she added, some analysts are observing inconsistencies between recent attacks in Iran and typical ISIS attacks.

"The regime will likely seek to exploit these attacks, regardless, and leverage them to justify cracking down on ongoing unrest."



US to Leave Iran 'Pretty Quickly' and Return if Needed, Trump Tells Reuters

03 March 2026, US, Washington: US President Donald Trump speaks during a meeting in the White House. Photo: Kay Nietfeld/dpa
03 March 2026, US, Washington: US President Donald Trump speaks during a meeting in the White House. Photo: Kay Nietfeld/dpa
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US to Leave Iran 'Pretty Quickly' and Return if Needed, Trump Tells Reuters

03 March 2026, US, Washington: US President Donald Trump speaks during a meeting in the White House. Photo: Kay Nietfeld/dpa
03 March 2026, US, Washington: US President Donald Trump speaks during a meeting in the White House. Photo: Kay Nietfeld/dpa

The United States will be "out of Iran pretty quickly" and could return for "spot hits" if needed, President Donald Trump told Reuters on Wednesday, hours before he was scheduled to make a primetime address to the nation. Trump also said he would express his disgust with NATO for what he considers the alliance's lack of support for US objectives in Iran.
He said he is "absolutely" considering an attempt to withdraw the United States from NATO, Reuters reported.

Asked when the United States would consider the Iran war over, Trump said: "I can't tell you exactly .... we're going to be out pretty quickly."

He said US action has ensured Iran will not have a nuclear weapon.

"They won't have a nuclear weapon because they are incapable of that now, and then I'll leave, and I'll take everybody with me, and if we have to we'll come back to do spot hits," Trump said.


19 Migrants Found Dead by Italian Coastguard off Lampedusa

Hellenic coast guard performs SAR operation, following migrant's boat collision with coast guard off the Aegean island of Chios, near Mersinidi, Greece, February 4, 2026. REUTERS
Hellenic coast guard performs SAR operation, following migrant's boat collision with coast guard off the Aegean island of Chios, near Mersinidi, Greece, February 4, 2026. REUTERS
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19 Migrants Found Dead by Italian Coastguard off Lampedusa

Hellenic coast guard performs SAR operation, following migrant's boat collision with coast guard off the Aegean island of Chios, near Mersinidi, Greece, February 4, 2026. REUTERS
Hellenic coast guard performs SAR operation, following migrant's boat collision with coast guard off the Aegean island of Chios, near Mersinidi, Greece, February 4, 2026. REUTERS

The bodies of 19 migrants were recovered from a boat off the coast of Lampedusa on Wednesday by the Italian coastguard, the island's mayor told AFP.

Mayor Filippo Mannino said seven other migrants, including two children, were being treated for "hypothermia and intoxication from hydrocarbon fumes".

The coastguard rescue was staged some 135 kilometers (85 miles) off the Italian island, according to news agency ANSA.

The coastguard did not respond to AFP requests for information.

The rescue operation occurred in the early hours of Wednesday inside Libya's search-and-rescue zone, ANSA reported.

"All are believed to have died of hypothermia," wrote the agency, which cited strong winds, rain, and temperatures of 10C, in the area.

Lampedusa is a key landing point for migrants crossing the Mediterranean Sea from North Africa, with many dying trying the dangerous journey.

So far this year, 624 migrants have died or gone missing in the central Mediterranean, according to the UN's International Organization for Migration.

Lampedusa's last migrant disaster occurred in August last year, when 27 people died in two shipwrecks off the coast.

According to the interior ministry, 6,117 migrants have landed on Italy's shores so far this year.

 

 

 

 


Starmer Says UK to Host Multi-nation Meeting on Hormuz Shipping

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer speaks during a press conference to update on the latest situation in the Middle East and how the government is supporting families at home at 10 Downing Street in London, on April 1, 2026. (Photo by Frank Augstein / POOL / AFP)
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer speaks during a press conference to update on the latest situation in the Middle East and how the government is supporting families at home at 10 Downing Street in London, on April 1, 2026. (Photo by Frank Augstein / POOL / AFP)
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Starmer Says UK to Host Multi-nation Meeting on Hormuz Shipping

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer speaks during a press conference to update on the latest situation in the Middle East and how the government is supporting families at home at 10 Downing Street in London, on April 1, 2026. (Photo by Frank Augstein / POOL / AFP)
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer speaks during a press conference to update on the latest situation in the Middle East and how the government is supporting families at home at 10 Downing Street in London, on April 1, 2026. (Photo by Frank Augstein / POOL / AFP)

Britain will this week hold a meeting of about 35 countries to discuss how to reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz which has been crippled by the Middle East war, Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced Wednesday.

UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper will host the discussions, Starmer told reporters during a Downing Street press conference, without specifying the day of the talks.

The meeting will "assess all viable diplomatic and political measures that we can take to restore freedom of navigation, guarantee the safety of trapped ships and seafarers and resume the movement of vital commodities", Starmer said.

"Following that meeting, we will also convene our military planners to look at how we can marshal our capabilities and make the strait accessible and safe after the fighting has stopped," he added.

The discussions will include countries who recently signed a statement saying they were ready "to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz", Starmer said.

Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the Netherlands are among those to have signed it.

Iran has virtually closed the vital strait since the US-Israeli strikes that started the war on February 28, causing global oil and gas prices to soar.

A fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passes through the strait in peacetime.

"I do have to level with people on this. This (reopening) will not be easy," Starmer said.

The UK leader also backed NATO following renewed criticism of the eight-decade-old alliance by US President Donald Trump.

"NATO is the single most effective military alliance the world has ever seen, and it has kept us safe for many decades, and we are fully committed to NATO," Starmer said.

Trump told Britain's Telegraph newspaper in an article published Wednesday that NATO was a "paper tiger".

Asked whether he would reconsider US membership, he replied: "Oh yes, I would say (it's) beyond reconsideration," the paper reported.

Last month, Trump told the Financial Times that it would be "very bad for the future of NATO" if members fail to help reopen the vital waterway.

On Tuesday, he said that countries which have not joined the war but are struggling with fuel shortages should "go get your own oil" in the Strait of Hormuz, adding that the US would not help them.