$16b Total Assets of Oman’s Islamic Banking Sector

The headquarters of the Central Bank of Oman in the capital, Muscat. (Getty Images)
The headquarters of the Central Bank of Oman in the capital, Muscat. (Getty Images)
TT

$16b Total Assets of Oman’s Islamic Banking Sector

The headquarters of the Central Bank of Oman in the capital, Muscat. (Getty Images)
The headquarters of the Central Bank of Oman in the capital, Muscat. (Getty Images)

The total assets of Oman’s Islamic banking sector, including Islamic banks and windows operating in the sultanate, jumped by 9.1 percent year-on-year to reach at RO6.4 billion ($16.6 billion) by late September 2022.

Oman’s Islamic banking assets now account for 16.2 percent of the country’s total banking system assets, according to latest data released by the Central Bank of Oman (CBO).

According to Oman’s official news agency ONA, the total balance of financing granted by the sector also increased by 11.8 percent to about RO5.3 billion ($13.7 billion).

The total deposits held with Islamic banks and windows also increased by 12.5 percent to RO4.8 billion ($12.5 billion) in September.

Meanwhile, Standard and Poor’s (S&P) upgraded the country’s credit rating from “BB-”to “BB”, with stable future outlook due to its improved fiscal performance.

The rating agency underlined in its credit rating report on Saturday the sultanate’s improved performance in the balance of payments, measures undertaken by the government within the Medium Term Fiscal Plan (MTFP) and a rise in oil prices as factors projecting positive outlook, coupled with the improvement in the net asset position in 2023.

It expected a decline in the public debt rate vis-à-vis the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 61% in 2021 to 44% in 2022.

The agency also projected a rise in Oman’s revenues over the next two years, along with sustained fiscal surplus in its budget for 2024, which will enhance levels of the country’s financial reserves and achieve a 5.8% financial surplus over the GDP in 2022.

It expected the sultanate’s current account to post a 5.2% surplus vis-à-vis the GDP, compared to deficits of 4.9% and 16.2% in 2021 and 2020, respectively.

It said that economic growth in Oman will be supplemented by a projected rise in hydrocarbon production, improved investment rates and government measures directed at supporting society and the private sector.

S&P further expected Oman’s GDP to pick up by about 4% in 2022 and 3% in 2023.

Meanwhile, non-oil activities are scheduled to be the prime motivator of growth over the coming years, according to S&P, which projects a private sector growth of 1.8% in 2022 and 2.5% over the period 2024-2025.

The international agency commended the government’s tangible efforts in consolidating the principle of transparency and disclosure of financial statements and GDP data through the publication of regular circulars.

S&P noted that Oman’s credit rating may persist in its upward trend, provided measures to enhance the State’s financial position are maintained by channeling more financial surplus into the public debt reduction course and augmenting fiscal flexibility to help address any unexpected crises or upheavals.



US Tariffs Could Slow China's Growth to 4.5% in 2025

People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)
People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)
TT

US Tariffs Could Slow China's Growth to 4.5% in 2025

People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)
People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)

China's economic growth is likely to slow to 4.5% in 2025 and cool further to 4.2% in 2026, a Reuters poll showed, with policymakers poised to roll out fresh stimulus measures to soften the blow from impending US tariff hikes.

Gross domestic product (GDP) likely grew 4.9% in 2024 - largely meeting the government's annual growth target of around 5%, helped by stimulus measures and strong exports, according to the median forecasts of 64 economists polled by Reuters.

But the world's second-largest economy faces heightened trade tensions with the United States as President-elect Donald Trump, who has proposed hefty tariffs on Chinese goods, is set to return to the White House next week.

“Potential US tariff hikes are the biggest headwind for China's growth this year, and could affect exports, corporate capex and household consumption,” analysts at UBS said in a note.

“We (also) foresee property activity continuing to fall in 2025, though with a smaller drag on growth.”

Growth likely improved to 5.0% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, quickening from the third-quarter's 4.6% pace as a flurry of support measures began to kick in, the poll showed.

On a quarterly basis, the economy is forecast to grow 1.6% in the fourth quarter, compared with 0.9% in July-September, the poll showed.

The government is due to release fourth-quarter and full-year GDP data, along with December activity data, on Friday.

China's economy has struggled for traction since a post-pandemic rebound quickly fizzled out, with a protracted property crisis, weak demand and high local government debt levels weighing heavily on activity, souring both business and consumer confidence.

Policymakers have unveiled a blitz of stimulus measures since September, including cuts in interest rates and banks' reserve requirements ratios (RRR) and a 10 trillion yuan ($1.36 trillion) municipal debt package.

They have also expanded a trade-in scheme for consumer goods such as appliances and autos, helping to revive retail sales.

Analysts expect more stimulus to be rolled out this year, but say the scope and size of China's moves may depend on how quickly and aggressively Trump implements tariffs or other punitive measures.

More stimulus on the cards

At an agenda-setting meeting in December, Chinese leaders pledged to increase the budget deficit, issue more debt and loosen monetary policy to support economic growth in 2025.

Leaders have agreed to maintain an annual growth target of around 5% for this year, backed by a record high budget deficit ratio of 4% and 3 trillion yuan in special treasury bonds, Reuters has reported, citing sources.

The government is expected to unveil growth targets and stimulus plans during the annual parliament meeting in March.

Faced with mounting economic risks and deflationary pressures, top leaders in December ditched their 14-year-old “prudent” monetary policy stance for a “moderately loose” posture.

China's central bank is expected to deploy its most aggressive monetary tactics in a decade this year as it tries to revive the economy, but in doing so it risks quickly exhausting its firepower. It has already had to repeatedly shore up its defense of the yuan currency as downward pressure pushes it to 16-month lows.

Analysts polled by Reuters expected the central bank to cut the seven-day reverse repo rate, its key policy rate, by 10 basis points in the first quarter, leading to a same cut in the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) - the benchmark lending rate.

The PBOC may also cut the weighted average reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for banks by at least 25 basis points in the first quarter, the poll showed, after two cuts in 2024.

Consumer inflation will likely pick up to 0.8% in 2025 from 0.2% in 2024, and rise further to 1.4% in 2026, the poll showed.