Türkiye Denies US Request to Cancel Syria Land Operation, Russia Negotiates SDF Withdrawal

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan chairing the Turkish National Security Council meeting (Anadolu Agency)
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan chairing the Turkish National Security Council meeting (Anadolu Agency)
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Türkiye Denies US Request to Cancel Syria Land Operation, Russia Negotiates SDF Withdrawal

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan chairing the Turkish National Security Council meeting (Anadolu Agency)
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan chairing the Turkish National Security Council meeting (Anadolu Agency)

Türkiye confirmed on Friday that it had asked the US to "fulfill its obligations," according to the understandings related to northern Syria after Washington asked Ankara to refrain from carrying out the military operation.

The Turkish National Security Council discussed Thursday the latest regional and international developments, combating terrorism, military operations in northern Syria and Iraq, and the possible ground operation against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) north of Syria.

The Turkish army prepared for its operation with the Syrian National Army following the "Claw-Sword" air operation, launched by Turkish forces in northern Syria and Iraq on Nov. 19, in response to the terrorist bombing in Istiklal Street in Taksim district in Istanbul, which killed six and injured 81 others.

Before the meeting, Defense Minister Hulusi Akar acknowledged that the US asked Türkiye to "re-evaluate" the possible new incursion into northern Syria, indicating that Ankara asked them to keep their promises in response.

Akar said the counter-terrorism operations are being carried out in line with the right of self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter to ensure the security of the Turkish nation and its borders.

He added that the Kurdish People's Defense Units, the largest component of the SDF, increased its provocations and attacks aiming to destabilize peace and stability in northern Syria.

On Wednesday, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told his Turkish counterpart of his "strong opposition" to a new Turkish military operation in Syria and voiced concern over the escalating situation in the county, the Pentagon said.

"He also expressed concern over escalating action in northern Syria and Türkiye, including recent airstrikes, some of which directly threatened the safety of US personnel working with local partners in Syria to defeat ISIS," it said in a statement.

"Secretary Austin called for de-escalation and shared the Department's strong opposition to a new Turkish military operation in Syria," read the statement.

The Turkish Defense Ministry said that Akar discussed bilateral and regional defense and security issues with Austin and informed him that Türkiye is carrying out counter-terrorism operations to ensure the security of its nation and borders.

He stressed that cooperation and solidarity in combating terrorism would contribute to regional and global peace and security and that Türkiye is ready to cooperate in fighting ISIS and all other terrorist organizations.

"We are reminding them that they should keep terrorists away from themselves, and eventually, they should cut their ties with terrorist organizations," he said.

Akar also met the former US special envoy to Syria, James Jeffrey, in Ankara, and they discussed developments in Syria.

Ankara accused Washington of "failing to fulfill its obligations" under the signed understandings and Russia of not fulfilling its obligations under the Sochi understanding, but Moscow said Ankara did not fulfill its commitments.

Russia and "SDF"

A cautious calm prevailed throughout north and east Syria with the negotiations in the western countryside of Raqqa between the Russian forces and the SDF regarding Manbij and Ain al-Arab areas, which are considered, along with Tal Rifaat, as potential targets for the upcoming Turkish military operation.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), Russia demanded SDF withdraws from the center of the city, with the increase in the deployment of the Internal Security Forces (Asayish) in the centers and maintaining the presence of the regime forces in the vicinity of the two areas with the Russian troops.

Russia waited for nearly two hours until the Turkish forces arrived. However, the Russian vehicles returned to the al-Qamishli airbase after Turkish soldiers informed Russian officials that they would run the patrol.

The last joint patrol between the two sides was on Nov. 17, two days before Türkiye launched Operation Claw-Sword.

Reinforcements continue

Military reinforcements from various parties continued to flow into the SDF-controlled areas. The Russian forces sent military support to the Aleppo governorate and placed a new barrier at the line of contact separating the regions controlled by the SDF and those under the control of Türkiye and the Syrian factions loyal to it.

The Observatory reported that the Russian forces increased their presence in Menagh military airport, under government control, aiming to stop or delay the possible Turkish operation.

A security official in Ain al-Arab told Agence French Press (AFP) that the Russian forces conducted a patrol in the area, accompanied by a helicopter, after canceling the joint patrols with the Turkish troops and the patrol operation scheduled earlier.

Last week, the SDF called on Russia and the United States to intervene to prevent Türkiye from carrying out its threats to launch a new ground offensive against its areas of control.

The regime forces deployed military reinforcements to Ain Issa in the northern countryside of Raqqa against the Turkish escalation. They brought new reinforcements consisting of at least 20 tanks, personnel carriers, cannons, logistical materials, and weaponry and entered Ain al-Arab.

The Observatory reported that successive convoys of the US-led International Coalition against ISIS entered northern and eastern Syria from the al-Walid border crossing with the Kurdistan region of Iraq.

It announced that over 240 trucks carrying cannons, heavy machine guns, military equipment, ammunition, closed boxes, and fuel tanks were headed to the coalition's bases in al-Hasakah.

On Nov. 29, a coalition convoy arrived in northern and eastern Syria, including about 40 trucks carrying ammunition and logistical materials, tanks, protection forces, and armored vehicles. It entered the US base in Tal Baydar, the third convoy in less than ten days.



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”