World Food Price Index Remains Stable in November

World Food Price Index Remains Stable in November
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World Food Price Index Remains Stable in November

World Food Price Index Remains Stable in November

The United Nations food agency's global price index remained stable in November amid decline in international prices of cereals, meat and dairy products driven by the agreement to prolong a UN-backed grain export channel from Ukraine.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) price index, which tracks the most globally traded food commodities, averaged 135.7 points in November, down from 135.9 for October, the agency said on Friday.

It pointed out that the figures published mark an eighth straight monthly fall since a record high in March after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Lower readings for cereals, meat and dairy products in November offset higher prices for vegetable oils and sugar, the FAO said.

The slight decrease in November meant that the FAO food index is now only 0.3% above its level a year earlier, the agency added.

Last month's agreement to prolong a UN-backed grain export channel from Ukraine for another 120 days has tempered worries about war disruption to massive Black Sea trade.

The FAO Cereal Price Index declined by 1.3% from the previous month, but it was still up 6.3% from its value a year ago.

World wheat and maize prices declined in November by 2.8% and 1.7%, respectively, partly influenced by the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index increased by 2.3% in November, ending seven consecutive months of decline. International palm and soy oil prices rose, while those of rapeseed and sunflower oils dropped.

The FAO Sugar Price Index rose 5.2% in November, influenced by strong buying trend amid tight global sugar supplies due to harvest delays in key producing countries and the announcement by India of a lower sugar export quota.

In separate cereal supply and demand estimates, the FAO lowered its forecast for global cereal production in 2022 to 2.756 billion tons from 2.764 billion estimated last month.

The forecast was 2% below the estimated output for 2021 and would mark a three-year low, the agency noted.

The agency further stated on Friday that 45 countries around the world, including 33 in Africa, nine in Asia, two in Latin America and the Caribbean and one in Europe, are assessed to be in need of external assistance for food due to conflicts, extreme weather events and soaring inflation rates.

Separately, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) launched on Thursday the Global Humanitarian Appeal for 2023 with a record $51.5 billion required to reach 230 million people in crisis.

As part of the appeal, the FAO said that it would need $1.9 billion to reach 48 million who rely on agriculture and subsistence farming, with lifesaving and livelihood assistance in 2023.



Dollar Steadies ahead of Trump Inauguration

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
TT

Dollar Steadies ahead of Trump Inauguration

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo

The US dollar steadied on Thursday despite the sharp fall in US bond yields after Wednesday’s inflation data as market focus shifted to Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration next week and possible inflationary impact of his policies.

Meanwhile the yen rose against the dollar and the euro as investors expected the Bank of Japan to hike rates next week.

The US dollar index - a measure of the value of the greenback relative to a basket of foreign currencies - was up 0.1% at 109.12.

"Markets are cautious before the inauguration because there is still policy uncertainty," said Paul Mackel, global head of foreign exchange research at HSBC.

"If the risk of US tariffs begins to materialize, the dollar will get another lift," he added, Reuters reported.

The highlight of the day should be the nomination hearing of Trump's choice of Scott Bessent to head the Treasury Department.

Bessent, who will face questioning before the US Senate Finance Committee, is expected to keep a leash on US deficits and to use tariffs as a negotiating tool, mitigating the expected inflationary impact of economic policies expected from the Trump administration.

The US inflation curve "has a well-identifiable 40 bps 'hump' over the next 12 months, which is near-identical to the estimated impact of a 5% universal and 20% China tariff starting as soon as Trump gets in office," said George Saravelos, head of forex research at Deutsche Bank.

"The market is pricing quick but moderate tariffs," he added. "We see risks of slower but bigger tariffs."

Traders who have been growing more worried about inflation responded with relief to Wednesday's US data, buying stocks and sending benchmark 10-year Treasury yields down more than 13 basis points. The currency reaction was more muted.

Analysts flagged that the US consumer price data was better than expected, but still showing inflation above Federal Reserve targets. The figures provided the US bond market with an excuse to do some downside testing for yields, but such a move is unlikely to go far.

"We still think that it will be easy for the Fed to remain on hold for now and wait for more data and fiscal policy clarity," said Allison Boxer, an economist at PIMCO, adding that US data did not change their forecasts for core inflation.

"We expect this to be the message (Fed) Chair (Jerome) Powell aims to communicate at the January meeting."

There was little direct reaction in foreign exchange markets to the ceasefire deal in Gaza, though the Israeli shekel did touch a one-month high on Wednesday.

The yen rose 0.46% against the dollar, after hitting 155.21, its lowest level since Dec. 19. It was up 0.51% against the euro at 160.19.

Recent remarks from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and his deputy Ryozo Himino have made clear that a hike will at least be discussed at next week's policy meeting and markets see about a 79% chance of a 25 basis point increase, while pricing 50 bps of rate hikes by year-end.

"Yen strengthened on expectations for a rate hike, but now the focus is on what BOJ officials will say about the monetary policy outlook," HSBC's Mackel argued.

"They could signal a more gradual path for the future, which could limit yen gains."

Japan's annual wholesale inflation held steady at 3.8% in December on stubbornly high food costs, data showed on Thursday.

"Expectations of a BOJ hike and perhaps fears of more forex intervention in the 158/160 area have helped the yen outperform," said Chris Turner, head of forex strategy at ING.

"We expect that to continue into next week's BOJ meeting. However, dips may exhaust in the 153/155 area," he said.

The euro was up 0.05% at $1.0294.

Sterling dropped sharply against the yen and also weakened versus the dollar and the euro on Thursday as investors focused on monetary policy divergence after last week's selloff in gilts and the pound.

China's yuan, seen on the front lines of tariff risk, was pinned near the weak end of its trading band at 7.3468 throughout the Asia session.