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Normalization between Syria and Türkiye … Putin’s Gift to Erdogan

Russia's President Vladimir Putin and Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan meet on the sidelines of the 6th summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-building Measures in Asia (CICA), in Astana, Kazakhstan October 13, 2022. (Reuters)
Russia's President Vladimir Putin and Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan meet on the sidelines of the 6th summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-building Measures in Asia (CICA), in Astana, Kazakhstan October 13, 2022. (Reuters)
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Normalization between Syria and Türkiye … Putin’s Gift to Erdogan

Russia's President Vladimir Putin and Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan meet on the sidelines of the 6th summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-building Measures in Asia (CICA), in Astana, Kazakhstan October 13, 2022. (Reuters)
Russia's President Vladimir Putin and Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan meet on the sidelines of the 6th summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-building Measures in Asia (CICA), in Astana, Kazakhstan October 13, 2022. (Reuters)

The Russian-sponsored Syrian-Turkish military meeting that was held in Moscow on Wednesday is the latest effort to achieve rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus.

It will likely culminate in a “gift” to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan from his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin: a meeting with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad ahead of Turkish elections in 2023.

However, are the normalization efforts serious or simply cosmetic?

Background

Relations between Ankara and Damascus shifted in summer 2011, months after the eruption of the Syrian anti-regime protests. Türkiye became a safe haven and supporter of the opposition against Damascus.

Syria transformed into an arena of violence, chaos and division. It also became a backer of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) that is opposed to Ankara.

Russia intervened in the conflict in the regime’s favor in 2015. Soon, it had troops deployed in Syria, effectively becoming Türkiye’s neighbor. Ankara would then discover the extent of NATO’s support to it, forcing it to cooperate with Moscow to impose a new reality in Syria.

A year later, Türkiye would prioritize preventing the formation of a Kurdish entity on its southern borders. It therefore reached a series of settlements and agreements with Russia that put an end to Kurdish ambitions. It succeeded in gaining control of pockets of regions in Syria, estimated at over 20,000 square kilometers, roughly twice the size of Lebanon.

Putin pushed for rapprochement between Erdogan and Assad with the launch of the Astana talks between Russia, Iran and Türkiye in 2017 and the development of the “hostile cooperation” between Ankara and Moscow.

In early 2020, Moscow succeeded in hosting an open meeting between Syria’s national security chief Ali Mamlouk and Turkish intelligence chief Hakan Fidan. Mamlouk demanded that Türkiye pull out from Syrian regions and reopen the Aleppo-Latakia highway. Fidan wanted deeper cooperation against the YPG.

Putin succeeded in bringing them together, but failed in reaching a major breakthrough.

New attempt

Erdogan has repeatedly been threatening to wage a new military offensive in Syria. He also has his eyes set on the upcoming elections and growing Turkish opposition to Syrian refugees in Türkiye. Notably, Türkiye and Russia have seen their cooperation deepen in wake of the war on Ukraine.

With all of the above, Putin has been paving the way for a meeting between Erdogan and Assad before the summer.

The first step he took was have a secret meeting take place between Mamlouk and Fidan in Moscow in July 2022.

The Syrian official demanded that his country’s sovereignty be respected. He demanded a timetable for Türkiye’s withdrawal from Syrian regions and called on it to cease its support to opposition factions and “terrorists”. He urged Türkiye to reopen the Aleppo-Latakia and Bab al-Hawa-Idlib highways, to take measures against western sanctions and back Syria’s reconstruction.

For his part, Fidan demanded cooperation with Damascus against the YPG and Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). He demanded the establishment of a security zone that excludes these groups 23 kilometers deep into Syria and the establishment of safe zones that can take in a million returning refugees. He also urged cooperation in the Constitutional Committee and resolving the Syrian crisis through United Nations Security Council resolution 2254.

Mamlouk and Fidan failed to reach an agreement and the meeting ended without a breakthrough.

Normalization or not?

In recent months Erdogan wasn’t wondering whether he will meet with Assad or not, but rather when he will meet him. He has repeatedly declared that he is ready to meet with him, listing various reasons, such as resolving differences with the majority of countries in the region before the Turkish elections.

Assad, however, is in no rush to hold a meeting that would favor his rival, whose country he views as an occupying nation.

As Türkiye and Russia intensify their cooperation in Ukraine, the Turkish elections draw near and the Syrian economic crisis deepens, Putin has pushed more and more for normalization and for a meeting to be held between him, Erdogan and Assad. The meeting would be seen as a gift to his “frenemy” and a boost for him to win the elections.

To that end, Russia has proposed holding a series of meetings that include tripartite security talks, meetings between the ministers of defense attended by intelligence officials, and a meeting between the Russian, Turkish and Syrian foreign ministers that will be capped by a summit between Putin, Erdogan and Assad.

Russia is trying to offer magical remedies to bridge the divide between Türkiye and Syria. It is offering a series of military, security and political meetings, as well as amendments to the 1998 Adana agreement between Ankara and Damascus that addresses cooperation against the PKK and the possibility of a Turkish incursion 5 kilometers deep into Syria.

The amendments would merge the Adana and 2019 Sochi agreements to include the deployment of Russian-Turkish patrols, the withdrawal of the YPG 30 kilometers away from the Turkish border and the deployment of Syrian border guards along the border with Türkiye.

Politically, Russia is proposing that a joint statement be issued with main clauses that underscore a “commitment to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria”, “rejection of separatist agendas” and return of refugees.

Türkiye is home to some 3.7 million Syrian refugees. The issue has been one of the main headlines of the Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections. Erdogan wants to take away this card from his rivals, which is why he is pursuing rapprochement and agreement with Damascus. Ultimately, however, the return of two million refugees back to their homeland is a hard ask.

Assad wants the withdrawal of thousands of Turkish soldiers from Syria, an end to “occupations” and a halt to military and political support to the Syrian opposition. It would be difficult to envisage an alliance with Ankara against the Kurds and meeting with Erdogan before a step is taken towards fulfilling these demands.

Moscow has set the process of normalization between Damascus and Ankara in motion, with all its security, military and political demands, with the final goal being a summit between Putin, Erdogan and Assad.

Normalization will be the chief pursuit of 2023 with its anticipated impact on normalization between Arab countries and Damascus and how far the US will allow it to go ahead.

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How Trump’s Decisions Reshaped Syria

A photo of US President Donald Trump meeting Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Washington on Nov. 10 (AFP)
A photo of US President Donald Trump meeting Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Washington on Nov. 10 (AFP)
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How Trump’s Decisions Reshaped Syria

A photo of US President Donald Trump meeting Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Washington on Nov. 10 (AFP)
A photo of US President Donald Trump meeting Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Washington on Nov. 10 (AFP)

In a crowded regional and international landscape shaped by overlapping security, strategic, economic, and political pressures, the administration of US President Donald Trump has moved since its return to the White House in January 2025 to recalibrate its approach to Syria.

After years of US policy marked by hesitation and competing agendas, particularly under the administrations of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, Washington is now pursuing a more direct and openly pragmatic course, one focused on achieving tangible results on the ground and managing delicate balances, rather than ideological commitments or long-term strategic gambles.

The shift reflects profound changes inside Syria itself, led by the collapse of the former regime and the emergence of a new government seeking to consolidate domestic legitimacy and secure international recognition.

These developments coincide with the persistent threat posed by ISIS, a retreat in Iranian influence, and the expanding regional roles of Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Qatar.

Within this evolving landscape, Washington is repositioning its policy in line with what officials describe as Trump’s Middle East doctrine, centered on enforcing stability, limiting the costs of direct military involvement, and opening pathways for reconstruction, development, and investment.

Interests before ideology

Commenting on this shift, Firas Fahham, a researcher at the Abaad Studies Center, said President Trump’s policy toward Syria could be described as “decidedly pragmatic,” focusing primarily on international and economic interests while setting aside the ideological or intellectual background of Syria’s new government.

Fahham said the central pillar of the emerging convergence between Washington and Damascus was preventing the return of Iranian influence to Syria, a goal that sits at the top of the current US administration’s priorities.

He added that this approach could not be separated from the positions of Arab states allied with the United States, which have openly supported the new Syrian government, led by Saudi Arabia, followed by Türkiye and Qatar.

Fahham said the Trump administration had shown a willingness to respond to these positions, viewing them as a key foundation for rebuilding regional alliances.

Comparing the approach with previous administrations, Fahham said the policies of Obama and Biden had been closer to allowing Iran a free hand in the region and supporting minority influence, particularly through close cooperation with the Syrian Democratic Forces, known as the SDF.

He said this had complicated the landscape and weakened prospects for establishing a strong central state capable of maintaining security and preventing the return of extremist groups.

From Riyadh to Washington...turning points

Fahham traced key milestones in Trump’s new policy, saying the starting point came during meetings held in Riyadh in June, when the US president, at the request of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, announced the lifting of sanctions on Syria.

He described the move as the first positive signal from Washington toward Damascus. This was followed by a trilateral meeting bringing together Trump, the Saudi Crown Prince, and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, during which the US president offered notable praise for his Syrian counterpart, reflecting Washington’s desire for political openness.

The most important moment, Fahham said, came at the Washington summit held in November, when Trump received President al-Sharaa at the White House in what he described as a pivotal turning point.

Following the meeting, the US administration began concrete efforts to pressure Congress to repeal the Caesar Act, while announcing Syria’s inclusion in the international coalition against ISIS.

This, Fahham said, shifted the relationship from limited coordination to something resembling an alliance.

The SDF and the future of eastern Syria

On the issue of the Syrian Democratic Forces, Fahham said the Trump administration was dealing with the matter from a strictly practical standpoint, balancing its interests with Syria’s new government, reflected in reduced support for the SDF compared with the Biden era, and its interests with its Turkish ally.

Washington, he said, now views Damascus as the most effective actor in the fight against ISIS.

This assessment, he said, was based on recommendations from US research centers. They concluded that previous reliance on the Kurdish component alone, and practices associated with it in eastern Syria, had created a sense of grievance that ISIS later exploited for recruitment.

As a result, the administration became convinced that cooperation with Damascus was more effective.

In a related context, Fahham said Washington viewed Israeli incursions in southern Syria with dissatisfaction, considering them destabilizing and contrary to Trump’s vision for regional development.

The United States, he added, fears that weakening the Syrian government could reopen the door to renewed Iranian influence and ISIS activity.

As for the southern province of Sweida, Fahham said the US administration supports integrating the province into the state, citing remarks by US envoy Tom Barrack, who stated that decentralization had failed in the Middle East, reflecting a preference for backing a unified Syria.

A parallel reading from the military establishment

From another angle, researcher on armed groups Raed al-Hamed offered a complementary reading of the US position.

He said that although Trump, during his first term, had moved toward withdrawing forces and ending the partnership with the SDF, warnings from senior military commanders about a possible ISIS resurgence after the battle of Baghouz in March 2019 prompted him to keep about 2,000 troops in Syria.

Al-Hamed noted that the partnership with the SDF dated back to the battle of Kobani in 2015, when Washington relied on the group as a ground force.

However, he said the new policy following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and Syria’s entry into the international coalition was now based on refusing to recognize any independent entity east of the Euphrates and rejecting federal formulas similar to Iraq’s Kurdistan region.

Al-Hamed said the new policy offered no real US guarantees to the SDF in the face of Türkiye and coincided with pressure to integrate the group into Syria’s military and security institutions, in line with the vision of the Syrian government, which rejects any armed presence outside the framework of the state.

This, he said, is still rejected by the SDF as the deadline approaches for implementing the March agreement with the government in Damascus, scheduled for the end of this year.

Overall, the Syrian scene appears to have entered a pivotal phase that goes beyond traditional conflict equations, laying the groundwork for a new reality governed by the language of interests and reciprocal security arrangements.

While Washington and its regional allies, particularly Riyadh and Ankara, are betting on the ability of the new leadership in Damascus to impose stability and end years of chaos, observers say the success of this path will depend on developments on the ground in the coming months.

The ability of the “new republic” to balance the demands of internal reconciliation with the conditions of external alliances will be the decisive test in determining whether this turn truly marks the opening chapter of an end to years of US hesitation in the region.

Features

Thousands Flock to Bethlehem to Revive Christmas Spirit after 2 Years of War in Gaza

Palestinian scout bands parade toward the Manger Square near the Church of the Nativity, traditionally believed to be the birthplace of Jesus, on Christmas Eve, in the West Bank city of Bethlehem, Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Mahmoud Illean)
Palestinian scout bands parade toward the Manger Square near the Church of the Nativity, traditionally believed to be the birthplace of Jesus, on Christmas Eve, in the West Bank city of Bethlehem, Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Mahmoud Illean)
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Thousands Flock to Bethlehem to Revive Christmas Spirit after 2 Years of War in Gaza

Palestinian scout bands parade toward the Manger Square near the Church of the Nativity, traditionally believed to be the birthplace of Jesus, on Christmas Eve, in the West Bank city of Bethlehem, Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Mahmoud Illean)
Palestinian scout bands parade toward the Manger Square near the Church of the Nativity, traditionally believed to be the birthplace of Jesus, on Christmas Eve, in the West Bank city of Bethlehem, Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Mahmoud Illean)

Thousands of people flocked to Bethlehem's Manger Square on Christmas Eve as families heralded a much-needed boost of holiday spirit. The giant Christmas tree that was absent during the Israel-Hamas war returned on Wednesday, overlooking a parade of scouts playing songs on bagpipes.

The city where Christians believe Jesus was born cancelled Christmas celebrations for the past two years. Manger Square had instead featured a nativity scene of baby Jesus surrounded by rubble and barbed wire in homage to the situation in Gaza, The AP news reported.

Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the top Catholic leader in the Holy Land, kicked off this year's celebrations during the traditional procession from Jerusalem to Bethlehem, calling for “a Christmas full of light.”

Arriving in Manger Square, Pizzaballa said he came bearing greetings from Gaza's tiny Christian community, where he held a pre-Christmas Mass on Sunday. Among the devastation, he saw a desire to rebuild.

“We, all together, we decide to be the light, and the light of Bethlehem is the light of the world,” he told thousands of people, Christian and Muslim.

Despite the holiday cheer, the impact of the war in the Israeli-occupied West Bank is acute, especially in Bethlehem, where around 80% of the Muslim-majority city’s residents depend upon tourism-related businesses, according to the local government.

The vast majority of people celebrating were residents, with a handful of foreigners in the crowd. But some residents said they are starting to see signs of change as tourism slowly returns.

Loss of tourism devastates Bethlehem “Today is a day of joy, a day of hope, the beginning of the return of normal life here,” said Bethlehem resident Georgette Jackaman, a tour guide who has not worked in more than two years.

She and her husband, Michael Jackaman, another guide, are from established Christian Bethlehem families that stretch back generations. This is the first real Christmas celebration for their two children, aged 2 1/2 and 10 months.

During the war, the Jackamans pivoted to create a website selling Palestinian handicrafts to try to support others who have lost their livelihoods.

During the Gaza war, the unemployment rate in the city jumped from 14% to 65%, Bethlehem Mayor Maher Nicola Canawati said earlier this month.

A visitor from France, Mona Riewer, said that “I came because I wanted to better understand what people in Palestine are going through, and you can sense people have been through a very hard time."

Although friends and family cautioned her against coming due to the volatile situation, Riewer said being in Bethlehem helped her appreciate the meaning of the holiday.

“Christmas is like hope in very dark situations, a very vulnerable child experiencing harshness,” she said.

Despite the Gaza ceasefire that began in October, tensions remain high across much of the West Bank.

Israel’s military continues to carry out frequent raids in what it says is a crackdown on militants. Attacks by Israeli settlers against Palestinians have reached their highest level since the United Nations humanitarian office started collecting data in 2006. Israel captured the West Bank in the 1967 Mideast war.

The internationally recognized Palestinian Authority has limited autonomy in parts of the territory, including Bethlehem. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is expected to attend midnight Mass for the first time in two years, the mayor said.

As poverty and unemployment have soared, about 4,000 people have left Bethlehem in search of work, the mayor said. It’s part of a worrying trend for Christians, who are leaving the region in droves.

Christians account for less than 2% of the West Bank’s roughly 3 million residents. Across the Middle East, the Christian population has steadily declined as people have fled conflict and attacks.

The beginning of a return to normal life Fadi Zoughbi, who previously worked overseeing logistics for tour groups, said his children were ecstatic to see marching bands streaming through Bethlehem's streets.

The scouts represent cities and towns across the West Bank, with Palestinian flags and tartan draped on their bagpipes, drummers spinning mallets adorned with pompoms. For the past two years, the scouts marched silently as a protest against the war.

Irene Kirmiz, who grew up in Bethlehem and now lives in Ramallah, said the scout parade is among her favorite Christmas traditions. Her 15-year-old daughter plays the tenor drum with the Ramallah scouts.

But her family had to wake up at 5 a.m. to arrive in time for the parade and waited upwards of three hours at Israeli checkpoints. The drive previously took 40 minutes without the checkpoints that have increasingly made travel difficult for Palestinians, she said.

“It's very emotional seeing people trying to bounce back, trying to celebrate peace and love,” Kirmiz said.

The Israeli Ministry of Tourism estimates 130,000 tourists will visit Israel by the end of December, including 40,000 Christians. In 2019, a banner year for tourism before the pandemic, the tourism ministry said 150,000 Christian tourists visited during Christmas week alone.

During the previous two years, the heads of churches in Jerusalem urged congregations to forgo “any unnecessarily festive activities.” They encouraged priests and the faithful to focus on Christmas’ spiritual meaning and called for “fervent prayers for a just and lasting peace for our beloved Holy Land.”

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Israel Planning to Exploit Druze File to Weaken Sharaa’s Rule in Syria

Head of the Military Council, Tareq al-Shoufi, is seen with his fighters.
Head of the Military Council, Tareq al-Shoufi, is seen with his fighters.
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Israel Planning to Exploit Druze File to Weaken Sharaa’s Rule in Syria

Head of the Military Council, Tareq al-Shoufi, is seen with his fighters.
Head of the Military Council, Tareq al-Shoufi, is seen with his fighters.

After the ouster of former president Bashar al-Assad, Israel supported Druze fighters in the south, in an effort to weaken Syria’s new government under the rule of President Ahmed Al-Sharaa and thus complicate his efforts to unify the country after its long civil war, according to a Washington Post report on Tuesday.

Current and former Israeli officials said this policy was not an immediate reaction to developments, but rather the result of a pre-planning that began months before the collapse of the Assad regime.

Since 2024, Druze leaders in Israel sought out a Syrian Druze counterpart who could help lead the 700,000 Druze in Syria in case the Assad regime collapsed, two former Israeli officials directly involved in the effort said.

Tareq al-Shoufi

Israeli officials told the Washington Post that Israel turned to Tareq al-Shoufi, a former colonel in Assad’s army.

A former Israeli official recalled tapping “20 men with military experience, dishing out ranks and tasks, and beginning to work on what was called the ‘Military Council’” in the Druze stronghold of Sweida province in southern Syria.

At the time, the Military Council, led by Shoufi, enjoyed the support of Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri, a fiery, 60-year-old Venezuelan-born Druze cleric who has called for the establishment of a self-governing Druze state backed by Israel, a founding member of the council said.

One the former Israeli officials said that to help Shoufi renovate an old building as a command center and buy uniforms and basic equipment, Druze members of the Israeli security establishment funneled him $24,000 via the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

The official added that the money was meant to tide over the Council until the Assad regime fell.

SDF role

The Post revealed that the SDF played a pivotal role in supporting Druze fighters.

The former Israeli official and two Druze commanders in Syria said up to half-million dollars were separately sent by the SDF to Hijri’s forces.

The SDF also trained Druze fighters, including women, in Kurdish-controlled areas in northern Syria, with that training reportedly continuing to this day, according to a senior Kurdish official.

Arms confiscated from Hezbollah, Hamas

The Washington Post report said when the Assad regime fell on December 8, 2024, Israel sprang directly into action.

Weapons supplied to the Druze by Israel included arms previously seized by fighters from Hezbollah and Hamas. A Druze commander told the Post that they also received sniper rifles, night vision equipment and machine gun ammunition.

Israelis are also providing monthly payments between $100 to $200 to about 3,000 Druze fighters from Hijri’s forces, two Druze officials said, further demonstrating that it continues to maintain a counterweight to the central Syrian government.

‘Fluid’ situation

The report also revealed that Israel provided Druze fighters with anti-tank missiles and satellite imagery that were used during battles against Syrian government forces, giving them a clear field advantage.

Today, Israeli officials and others briefed on their thinking say the situation in Syria — and Israel’s policy toward the Druze — remain fluid, according to the Washington Post report.

Backing an independent state would create a situation where “Israel needs to now defend a population that’s 100 kilometers away from the border,” an Israeli adviser said. “If we have an interest here, it’s not to create an independent Druzistan.”

Israeli officials have also grown wary of the internal power struggles that emerged among the Syrian Druze.

In August, Hijri sought to be recognized as the sole legitimate military authority among the Syrian Druze, and the “National Guard,” a new militia led by Hijri and his son Suleiman, replaced the Military Council as the recipient of weapons from Israel, according to a Syrian Druze commanders and the two former Israeli officials directly involved.

The move led to schisms among Druze commanders.

After US President Donald Trump first shook hands with Sharaa in May, Israel in August halted the flow of weapons to the Druze, Israeli and Druze officials revealed.

Therefore, Israel’s support for the Druze is carefully calibrated.

Israeli analysts warned that propping up an autonomous Druze state or proxy militia would represent a far different mandate than cooperating with them to secure Israel’s border.

One government adviser noted that Israel did not have a “good experience in south Lebanon,” where it supported a pro-Israel militia called the South Lebanon Army for two decades before the group crumbled in the face of Hezbollah advances in 2000.

Druze state stretching to Iraq

A Western official told the Post that Hijri prepared maps of a proposed future Druze state stretching all the way to Iraq and pitched it to at least one major Western government in early 2025.

The newspaper revealed that Israel is using the Druze paper in South Syria to undermine Sharaa’s ability to centralize power.

It said Israel is practicing a “shadow” policy in Syria: planned support for minorities, limited military intervention and tactical openness to negotiation, without a clear commitment to a final political path.

The report shows that the future of Israel’s policy towards Druze in south Syria remains dependent on the ability of Sharaa’s government to consolidate its power over the entire territory, and how willing Washington is to balance its bets on Sharaa to restore stability in Syria and respond to Israeli security concerns.