Analysts: Iran Regime Divided on How to Tackle Protests

AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
TT
20

Analysts: Iran Regime Divided on How to Tackle Protests

AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini

Iran's regime is divided in its response to months of unprecedented protests, wavering between repression and what it views as conciliatory gestures trying to quell the discontent, analysts say.

"The conflicting messages we are getting from the Iranian regime suggest an internal debate on how to deal with ongoing protests," said Nader Hashemi, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Denver.

"In most authoritarian regimes, there are hawks and doves" who disagree on how repressive the state should be during crises, he said.

The granting of retrials to several death-row protesters, and the release from detention of prominent dissidents, are signs that some seek to take a softer approach, AFP reported.

But a reminder of the hardline tack came Saturday when Iran executed two men for killing a paramilitary member during protest-related unrest.

Demonstrations began after the September 16 death in custody of Kurdish-Iranian Mahsa Amini, 22. She had been arrested by morality police who enforce a strict dress code which requires women to wear a scarf-like covering over their hair and neck.

The protests have escalated into calls for an end to the regime, posing the biggest challenge for the clerics since the 1979 revolution deposed the shah.

Authorities have responded with deadly violence that has left hundreds dead.

Thousands have been arrested and 14 detainees sentenced to hang, many for killing or attacking security force members, according to the judiciary.

The Supreme Court has upheld some of the death sentences and a total of four men have now been executed. The judiciary has also announced retrials for six of the 14.

This reflects a "political calculus", said US-based Iran expert Mehrzad Boroujerdi, co-author of "Post-Revolutionary Iran: A Political Handbook".

"They know that mass executions will bring more people into the streets and further agitate them. On the other hand, they want to send a signal that they are not reticent to execute protesters so that people are intimidated."

In what analysts see as another attempt to calm the situation, two prominent dissidents arrested early during the protests, Majid Tavakoli and Hossein Ronaghi, were freed weeks later. Ronaghi had been on a hunger strike.

The regime is using "everything from pressure release valves to long prison terms and executions. They are experimenting with these as they struggle to formulate a more clearly articulated policy," Boroujerdi said.

Anoush Ehteshami, director of the Institute for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at the UK's Durham University, said the retrials partly reflected mounting foreign and domestic pressure.

"But also within the regime there is division about how to handle this," Ehteshami said, with hardliners on one side and others who see executions as further encouraging resistance.

Retrials and the release of dissidents are "measures of appeasement... to try and throw a bone" to the protesters, he added.

While such measures may appear insignificant, from the perspective of a "securitized, beleaguered regime... they think they are being magnanimous and responding to public pressure".



6 Americans Detained for Trying to Send Rice and Bibles to North Korea by Sea

FILE - Neighborhoods of North Korea's Kaepoong village are seen from the observation post in Ganghwa, near the border with North Korea, South Korea, Feb. 28, 2023. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon, File)
FILE - Neighborhoods of North Korea's Kaepoong village are seen from the observation post in Ganghwa, near the border with North Korea, South Korea, Feb. 28, 2023. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon, File)
TT
20

6 Americans Detained for Trying to Send Rice and Bibles to North Korea by Sea

FILE - Neighborhoods of North Korea's Kaepoong village are seen from the observation post in Ganghwa, near the border with North Korea, South Korea, Feb. 28, 2023. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon, File)
FILE - Neighborhoods of North Korea's Kaepoong village are seen from the observation post in Ganghwa, near the border with North Korea, South Korea, Feb. 28, 2023. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon, File)

Six Americans were detained Friday in South Korea for trying to send 1,600 plastic bottles filled with rice, US dollars bills and Bibles toward North Korea by sea, police said.

The Americans tried to throw the bottles into the sea from front-line Gwanghwa Island so they could float toward North Korean shores by the tides, said a police officer who spoke on condition of anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to speak to media on the issue. According to The Associated Press, he said they are being investigated on allegations they violated the law on the management of safety and disasters.

A second South Korean police officer confirmed the detentions of the Americans.
The police officers gave no further details, including whether any of the six had made previous attempts to send bottles toward North Korea.

Activists floating plastic bottles or flying balloons carrying anti-North Korea propaganda leaflets across the border has long caused tensions on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea expressed its anger at the balloon campaigns by launching its own balloons carrying trash into South Korea, including at least two that landed in the presidential compound in Seoul last year.

In 2023, South Korea’s Constitutional Court struck down a 2020 law that criminalized the sending of leaflets and other items to North Korea, calling it an excessive restriction on free speech.

But since taking office in early June, the new liberal government of President Lee Jae Myung is pushing to crack down on such civilian campaigns with other safety-related laws to avoid a flare-up in tensions with North Korea and promote the safety of frontline South Korean residents.

On June 14, police detained an activist for allegedly flying balloons toward North Korea from Gwanghwa Island.

Lee took office with a promise to restart long-dormant talks with North Korea and establish peace on the Korean Peninsula. Lee's government halted frontline anti-Pyongyang propaganda loudspeaker broadcasts to try to ease military tensions. North Korean broadcasts have not been heard in South Korean front-line towns since then.

But it's unclear if North Korea will respond to Lee's conciliatory gesture after it vowed last year to sever relations with South Korea and abandon the goal of peaceful Korean reunification. Official talks between the Koreas have been stalled since 2019 when the US-led diplomacy on North Korean denuclearization derailed.