Analysts: Iran Regime Divided on How to Tackle Protests

AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
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Analysts: Iran Regime Divided on How to Tackle Protests

AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini

Iran's regime is divided in its response to months of unprecedented protests, wavering between repression and what it views as conciliatory gestures trying to quell the discontent, analysts say.

"The conflicting messages we are getting from the Iranian regime suggest an internal debate on how to deal with ongoing protests," said Nader Hashemi, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Denver.

"In most authoritarian regimes, there are hawks and doves" who disagree on how repressive the state should be during crises, he said.

The granting of retrials to several death-row protesters, and the release from detention of prominent dissidents, are signs that some seek to take a softer approach, AFP reported.

But a reminder of the hardline tack came Saturday when Iran executed two men for killing a paramilitary member during protest-related unrest.

Demonstrations began after the September 16 death in custody of Kurdish-Iranian Mahsa Amini, 22. She had been arrested by morality police who enforce a strict dress code which requires women to wear a scarf-like covering over their hair and neck.

The protests have escalated into calls for an end to the regime, posing the biggest challenge for the clerics since the 1979 revolution deposed the shah.

Authorities have responded with deadly violence that has left hundreds dead.

Thousands have been arrested and 14 detainees sentenced to hang, many for killing or attacking security force members, according to the judiciary.

The Supreme Court has upheld some of the death sentences and a total of four men have now been executed. The judiciary has also announced retrials for six of the 14.

This reflects a "political calculus", said US-based Iran expert Mehrzad Boroujerdi, co-author of "Post-Revolutionary Iran: A Political Handbook".

"They know that mass executions will bring more people into the streets and further agitate them. On the other hand, they want to send a signal that they are not reticent to execute protesters so that people are intimidated."

In what analysts see as another attempt to calm the situation, two prominent dissidents arrested early during the protests, Majid Tavakoli and Hossein Ronaghi, were freed weeks later. Ronaghi had been on a hunger strike.

The regime is using "everything from pressure release valves to long prison terms and executions. They are experimenting with these as they struggle to formulate a more clearly articulated policy," Boroujerdi said.

Anoush Ehteshami, director of the Institute for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at the UK's Durham University, said the retrials partly reflected mounting foreign and domestic pressure.

"But also within the regime there is division about how to handle this," Ehteshami said, with hardliners on one side and others who see executions as further encouraging resistance.

Retrials and the release of dissidents are "measures of appeasement... to try and throw a bone" to the protesters, he added.

While such measures may appear insignificant, from the perspective of a "securitized, beleaguered regime... they think they are being magnanimous and responding to public pressure".



UK Police Charge Two Men with Belonging to Hezbollah, Attending Terrorism Training

Hezbollah flags flutter as protesters, mainly Houthi supporters, rally to show support to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon's Hezbollah, in Sanaa, Yemen September 27, 2024. (Reuters)
Hezbollah flags flutter as protesters, mainly Houthi supporters, rally to show support to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon's Hezbollah, in Sanaa, Yemen September 27, 2024. (Reuters)
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UK Police Charge Two Men with Belonging to Hezbollah, Attending Terrorism Training

Hezbollah flags flutter as protesters, mainly Houthi supporters, rally to show support to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon's Hezbollah, in Sanaa, Yemen September 27, 2024. (Reuters)
Hezbollah flags flutter as protesters, mainly Houthi supporters, rally to show support to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon's Hezbollah, in Sanaa, Yemen September 27, 2024. (Reuters)

Two British-Lebanese men appeared in a London court on Tuesday, charged with belonging to the banned Iran-backed group Hezbollah and attending terrorism training camps, with one of the two accused of helping procure parts for drones.

Annis Makki, 40, is charged with attending a terrorist training camp at the Birket Jabbour airbase in Lebanon in 2021, being involved in the preparation of terrorist acts, being a member of Hezbollah, and expressing support both for Hezbollah and the banned Palestinian group Hamas.

Mohamed Hadi Kassir, 33, is also accused of belonging to Hezbollah and attending a training camp in Baffliyeh in south Lebanon in 2015 and at the Birket Jabbour airbase in 2021. He indicated not guilty pleas to the charges.

Prosecutor Kristel Pous told Westminster Magistrates' Court that Kassir was "an entrenched member of Hezbollah" and that images had been found of him "training in a Hezbollah-controlled camp and undertaking hostage training exercises in 2015".

Pous also said Makki had access to a "wide-ranging Hezbollah network" which was linked to facilitating the acquisition of parts to be used in unmanned aerial vehicles.

Judge Paul Goldspring remanded both men in custody until their next court appearance at London's Old Bailey court on January 16.

The men were arrested at their home addresses in London in April and rearrested last week when they were subsequently charged.

Commander Dominic Murphy, head of London's Counter Terrorism Policing, said in a statement before Tuesday's hearing: "I want to reassure the public that I do not assess there is an ongoing threat to the wider public as a result of the activities of these two individuals."


Millions Facing Acute Food Insecurity in Afghanistan as Winter Looms, UN Warns

Boys stay on a hilltop overlooking Kabul, Afghanistan, Feb. 27, 2022. (AP)
Boys stay on a hilltop overlooking Kabul, Afghanistan, Feb. 27, 2022. (AP)
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Millions Facing Acute Food Insecurity in Afghanistan as Winter Looms, UN Warns

Boys stay on a hilltop overlooking Kabul, Afghanistan, Feb. 27, 2022. (AP)
Boys stay on a hilltop overlooking Kabul, Afghanistan, Feb. 27, 2022. (AP)

More than 17 million people in Afghanistan are facing crisis levels of hunger in the coming winter months, the leading international authority on hunger crises and the UN food aid agency warned Tuesday.

The number at risk is some 3 million more than a year ago.

Economic woes, recurrent drought, shrinking international aid and influx of Afghans returning home from countries like neighboring Iran and Pakistan have strained resources and added to the pressures on food security, reports the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, known as IPC, which tracks hunger crises.

"What the IPC tells us is that more than 17 million people in Afghanistan are facing acute food insecurity. That is 3 million more than last year," said Jean-Martin Bauer, director of food security at the UN's World Food Program, told reporters in Geneva.

"There are almost 4 million children in a situation of acute malnutrition," he said by video from Rome. "About 1 million are severely acutely malnourished, and those are children who actually require hospital treatment."

Food assistance in Afghanistan is reaching only 2.7% of the population, the IPC report says — exacerbated by a weak economy, high unemployment and lower inflows of remittances from abroad — as more than 2.5 million people returned from Iran and Pakistan this year.

More than 17 million people, or more than one-third of the population, are set to face crisis levels of food insecurity in the four-month period through to March 2026, the report said. Of those, 4.7 million could face emergency levels of food insecurity.

An improvement is expected by the spring harvest season starting in April, IPC projected.

The UN last week warned of a "severe" and "precarious" crisis in the country as Afghanistan enters its first winter in years without US foreign assistance and almost no international food distribution.

Tom Fletcher, the UN humanitarian chief, told the Security Council on Wednesday that the situation has been exacerbated by "overlapping shocks," including recent deadly earthquakes, and the growing restrictions on humanitarian aid access and staff.

While Fletcher said nearly 22 million Afghans will need UN assistance in 2026, his organization will focus on 3.9 million facing the most urgent need of lifesaving help in light of the reduced donor contributions.


Suspected Militants Kill 2, Including a Police Officer Guarding Polio Team in Northwestern Pakistan

A health worker marks a child’s finger after administering a polio vaccination in Hyderabad, Pakistan, 15 December 2025. EPA/NADEEM KHAWAR
A health worker marks a child’s finger after administering a polio vaccination in Hyderabad, Pakistan, 15 December 2025. EPA/NADEEM KHAWAR
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Suspected Militants Kill 2, Including a Police Officer Guarding Polio Team in Northwestern Pakistan

A health worker marks a child’s finger after administering a polio vaccination in Hyderabad, Pakistan, 15 December 2025. EPA/NADEEM KHAWAR
A health worker marks a child’s finger after administering a polio vaccination in Hyderabad, Pakistan, 15 December 2025. EPA/NADEEM KHAWAR

Suspected militants opened fire on a police officer guarding a team of polio workers in northwestern Pakistan on Tuesday, killing the officer and a passerby before fleeing, police said.
No polio worker was harmed in the attack that occurred in Bajaur, a district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province bordering Afghanistan, according to local police chief Samad Khan, The Associated Press said.
No group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack, but suspicion is likely to fall on the Pakistani Taliban and other militant groups blamed by the government for similar attacks in the region and elsewhere in the country.
The shooting came a day after Pakistan launched a weeklong nationwide vaccination campaign aimed at immunizing 45 million children. According to the World Health Organization, Pakistan and Afghanistan remain the only two countries where polio has not been eradicated.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif condemned the attack in a statement and vowed strong action against those responsible.
Pakistan has reported 30 polio cases since January, down from 74 during the same period last year, according to a statement from the government-run Polio Eradication Initiative.
Pakistan regularly launches campaigns against polio despite attacks on the workers and police assigned to the inoculation drives. Militants falsely claim the vaccination campaigns are a Western conspiracy to sterilize children.
More than 200 polio workers and police assigned to protect them have been killed in Pakistan since the 1990s, according to health and security officials.