Analysts: Iran Regime Divided on How to Tackle Protests

AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
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Analysts: Iran Regime Divided on How to Tackle Protests

AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini

Iran's regime is divided in its response to months of unprecedented protests, wavering between repression and what it views as conciliatory gestures trying to quell the discontent, analysts say.

"The conflicting messages we are getting from the Iranian regime suggest an internal debate on how to deal with ongoing protests," said Nader Hashemi, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Denver.

"In most authoritarian regimes, there are hawks and doves" who disagree on how repressive the state should be during crises, he said.

The granting of retrials to several death-row protesters, and the release from detention of prominent dissidents, are signs that some seek to take a softer approach, AFP reported.

But a reminder of the hardline tack came Saturday when Iran executed two men for killing a paramilitary member during protest-related unrest.

Demonstrations began after the September 16 death in custody of Kurdish-Iranian Mahsa Amini, 22. She had been arrested by morality police who enforce a strict dress code which requires women to wear a scarf-like covering over their hair and neck.

The protests have escalated into calls for an end to the regime, posing the biggest challenge for the clerics since the 1979 revolution deposed the shah.

Authorities have responded with deadly violence that has left hundreds dead.

Thousands have been arrested and 14 detainees sentenced to hang, many for killing or attacking security force members, according to the judiciary.

The Supreme Court has upheld some of the death sentences and a total of four men have now been executed. The judiciary has also announced retrials for six of the 14.

This reflects a "political calculus", said US-based Iran expert Mehrzad Boroujerdi, co-author of "Post-Revolutionary Iran: A Political Handbook".

"They know that mass executions will bring more people into the streets and further agitate them. On the other hand, they want to send a signal that they are not reticent to execute protesters so that people are intimidated."

In what analysts see as another attempt to calm the situation, two prominent dissidents arrested early during the protests, Majid Tavakoli and Hossein Ronaghi, were freed weeks later. Ronaghi had been on a hunger strike.

The regime is using "everything from pressure release valves to long prison terms and executions. They are experimenting with these as they struggle to formulate a more clearly articulated policy," Boroujerdi said.

Anoush Ehteshami, director of the Institute for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at the UK's Durham University, said the retrials partly reflected mounting foreign and domestic pressure.

"But also within the regime there is division about how to handle this," Ehteshami said, with hardliners on one side and others who see executions as further encouraging resistance.

Retrials and the release of dissidents are "measures of appeasement... to try and throw a bone" to the protesters, he added.

While such measures may appear insignificant, from the perspective of a "securitized, beleaguered regime... they think they are being magnanimous and responding to public pressure".



Iran Shifts Focus from Lebanon War to Economic, Oil Challenges

A handout picture provided by the office of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei shows him addressing members of the army's navy during an official gathering in Tehran on November 27, 2024. (Photo by KHAMENEI.IR / AFP)
A handout picture provided by the office of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei shows him addressing members of the army's navy during an official gathering in Tehran on November 27, 2024. (Photo by KHAMENEI.IR / AFP)
TT

Iran Shifts Focus from Lebanon War to Economic, Oil Challenges

A handout picture provided by the office of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei shows him addressing members of the army's navy during an official gathering in Tehran on November 27, 2024. (Photo by KHAMENEI.IR / AFP)
A handout picture provided by the office of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei shows him addressing members of the army's navy during an official gathering in Tehran on November 27, 2024. (Photo by KHAMENEI.IR / AFP)

While officially welcoming the ceasefire in Lebanon, Tehran has expressed cautious and reserved positions on the recent developments. Even as it reiterates its intention to respond to Israeli actions, Iran has stated it will take “regional developments” into account before deciding its next steps.

Meanwhile, domestic debates about Iran’s economic challenges are intensifying. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf acknowledged the country’s struggles with oil production and transportation to global markets, while Ali Larijani, a senior advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, described Iran’s economic problems as “chronic” and unlikely to be resolved easily.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on Wednesday that Iran reserves the right to respond to Israeli airstrikes conducted last month. However, he noted that Tehran is also closely monitoring other regional developments, including the ceasefire in Lebanon. Speaking to reporters in Lisbon, Araghchi welcomed the truce between Israel and Lebanon, expressing hope it would lead to a lasting peace. The Israeli strikes on Iran on October 26 came in response to a missile attack launched by Tehran on Israel earlier that month.

In a separate address to Iranian naval commanders, Khamenei called for enhancing the combat capabilities of Iran’s armed forces to deter potential aggressors. While Khamenei did not specifically mention the Lebanon ceasefire, he emphasized that military readiness must serve as a clear warning to adversaries that any confrontation will come at a high cost.

During a parliamentary session, Ghalibaf discussed Iran’s diminishing leverage in global oil markets. According to ISNA news agency, Ghalibaf remarked: “Oil was once our tool to threaten enemies, but that time is gone. What oil can we cut off? What market do we control?”

He further noted that Iran is currently incapable of achieving the 8% economic growth rate needed, citing the high costs of extracting natural gas as a significant hurdle.

“Even if Iran could produce oil,” he added, “it faces difficulties in transporting it.” Ghalibaf emphasized that Iran’s economic challenges extend far beyond issues such as the use of fuel oil in power plants.

The parliamentary speaker urged both reformist and conservative lawmakers to support the proposed Seventh Development Plan. He also criticized legislative delays in implementing development goals, highlighting the need for reforms in income tax policies and budget allocations for media, as reported by the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency.

Larijani acknowledged in a recorded 100-minute interview with Tasnim that Iran’s economy suffers from chronic issues, adding that Western sanctions alone are not to blame. Larijani briefly touched on the situation in Lebanon and Palestine but avoided addressing the fate of the “resistance” or the “unity of fronts.”