US Envoy: Iran Is Very Close to Producing Nuclear Weapon

US envoy to Iran, Robert Malley, in Rome in December. (File photo: AP)
US envoy to Iran, Robert Malley, in Rome in December. (File photo: AP)
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US Envoy: Iran Is Very Close to Producing Nuclear Weapon

US envoy to Iran, Robert Malley, in Rome in December. (File photo: AP)
US envoy to Iran, Robert Malley, in Rome in December. (File photo: AP)

US envoy to Iran Robert Malley confirmed that Tehran is "very, very close" to obtaining sufficient quantities of enriched uranium to produce a nuclear weapon.

However, he refused to declare the end of diplomacy in the efforts of President Joe Biden's administration to return to the nuclear agreement, warning that the military option is the "last resort" although it is "very difficult and very dangerous."

In an interview with the BBC's HARDtalk program, Malley said that "diplomacy never ends" when it comes to Iran, even if accompanied by "sanctions, pressure, countering what they are doing in the region, and also mobilizing the international community" and in conjunction with "the indirect negotiations with Iran."

Malley has been a key figure in US-Middle East policymaking under three Democrat administrations for Presidents Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and now Biden.

He recalled that US officials have announced publicly they would continue the indirect talks but "will not hesitate to take other steps to stop Iran's aggressive behavior or to curb its nuclear program."

He added that the issue "is not an either-or; it is not diplomacy or the rest. Everything goes hand in hand."

The US official avoided saying whether Iran now poses a greater threat to US national security than it was when Biden assumed the presidency nearly two years ago, but he admitted that "we already inherited a very dangerous situation because of the reckless decision by the prior administration to withdraw from the deal that was working."

Malley acknowledged that "Iran's nuclear program has advanced. No doubt about it. No question."

The US, its European allies, and others are "far more united today than they were" under former US President Donald Trump and are united more than ever, and this "puts us in a much stronger position to confront Iran."

"Things have gotten worse. Iran has developed its nuclear program in ways that are very dangerous, but we are more united, and we have a stronger position from which to counter Iran."

When asked if he confirmed a previous statement by Biden in which he said the nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), "is dead," Malley replied: "I wasn't hired to write obituaries."

However, he revealed that Iran had "turned down multiple opportunities to end this crisis and to get back into the deal. [...] They are the ones who turned their backs on it."

Moreover, the envoy distinguished between Iranians being "very, very close" to having enough weapons-grade uranium for a bomb and close enough to obtaining a bomb, which he described as a different question.

He declared that Iran has not resumed its "weaponization program and efforts to acquire a weapon," adding that if they did, "the circumstances would change."

"We are not comfortable with them being as close as they are today, and that's why we're both pursuing a diplomatic path," said Malley, recalling that, "President Biden said that if that option fails, all other options will be on the table," including the military option which he described as "far from our preference" and a "last resort."

He stressed that the military option is not the US' "first option" because it is "a very difficult option. It's a very dangerous option," adding that Biden would only do it if necessary.

Asked about Israel, Malley said Tel Aviv has its interests and perception of Iran, adding: "We did not always agree on the tactics. I think we agree on the objective, which is to make sure that Iran can't acquire a nuclear weapon."

Malley denied that the current US-Israeli military maneuvers aim to prepare for a military plan for an attack against Iran.

Rather, they are designed to project Washington's support to Israel and ensure that the "US and Israel together can work to defend their common interests," [...] regardless of what is happening in Ukraine and what is happening in the Russian theater, in the European theater," he explained.

The envoy renewed US support for human rights and basic freedoms in Iran, asserting that it continues to counter Tehran's support for Russia in the war against Ukraine and its threats against American citizens.

Furthermore, Malley stressed that Washington was not seeking regime change in Iran, clarifying that "our task is to stand up for the Iranian people."



China Has Expanded its Nuclear Force, Strengthened Ties to Russia, the Pentagon Says

An American flag is flown next to the Chinese national emblem outside the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Nov. 9, 2017. (AP Photo/Andy Wong, File)
An American flag is flown next to the Chinese national emblem outside the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Nov. 9, 2017. (AP Photo/Andy Wong, File)
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China Has Expanded its Nuclear Force, Strengthened Ties to Russia, the Pentagon Says

An American flag is flown next to the Chinese national emblem outside the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Nov. 9, 2017. (AP Photo/Andy Wong, File)
An American flag is flown next to the Chinese national emblem outside the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Nov. 9, 2017. (AP Photo/Andy Wong, File)

China is expanding its nuclear force, has increased military pressure against Taiwan and has strengthened its ties with Russia over the past year, according to a Pentagon report Wednesday that details actions accelerating key areas of conflict with the United States.

The report, however, also notes that the recent rash of corruption allegations within China's powerful Central Military Commission, which oversees the People’s Liberation Army, is hurting Beijing’s military growth and could slow its campaign to modernize.

The impact, said a senior defense official, is a bit of a mixed bag because while there has been progress in some programs, China has slid back in others.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the US assessment, warned that Beijing is working toward developing a more diverse and technologically sophisticated nuclear force. While the expected number of nuclear warheads has maintained consistent growth, China is broadening its targeting abilities, The AP reported.

Beijing is going to be able to go after more and different types of targets, do greater damage and have more options for multiple rounds of counterstrikes, the official said. The US is urging China to be more transparent about its nuclear program, while also warning that America will defend its allies and take appropriate steps in response.

According to the report, which provides the annual US assessment of China’s military power and is required by Congress, China had more than 600 operational nuclear warheads as of May, and the US expects it will have more than 1,000 by 2030.

The Biden administration has worked to maintain a balance with China, building up the US military presence in the Asia-Pacific region to be ready to counter Beijing while also encouraging increased communications between the two countries at the diplomatic and military levels.

That uptick in talks has coincided with a decrease in coercive and risky intercepts of US aircraft since late 2023, compared with the previous two years. China still, however, does what the US military considers “unsafe” flights near American and allied forces in the region.

The Pentagon’s national defense strategy is built around China being the greatest security challenge for the US, and the threat from Beijing influences how the US military is equipped and organized for the future.

The corruption within the PLA has resulted in at least 15 high-ranking officials being ousted in a major shakeup of China’s defense establishment.

“This wave of corruption touches every service in the PLA, and it may have shaken Beijing’s confidence," the report said.

In June, China announced that former Defense Minister Li Shangfu and his predecessor, Wei Fenghe, were expelled from the ruling Communist Party and accused of corruption. Last month, another senior official, Miao Hua, was suspended and put under investigation, according to China's Defense Ministry.

The US report points to a persistent increased military presence by China around Taiwan, the self-governing island that China claims as its own. It said China's navy has been in the region more and that there have been increased crossings into the island's air defense identification zone and major military exercises in the area.

Just last week, a large deployment of Chinese navy and coast guard vessels in the waters around Taiwan triggered alarm as Taiwanese officials said it looked like China was simulating a blockade. Officials have said there were as many as 90 ships involved in what Taiwan described as two walls designed to demonstrate that the waters belong to China.

Taiwan split from communist China in 1949 and has rejected Beijing’s demands that it accept unification. China says it will do so by force if necessary, and leaders have said they want to be ready to do so by 2027.

The United States is obligated under domestic law to help defend Taiwan and give it weapons and technology to deter invasion.

The island democracy has been the chief source of tension between Washington and Beijing for decades and is widely seen as the most likely trigger for a potentially catastrophic US-China war.

More broadly, the report concluded that the PLA continued its drive to develop greater military capabilities but “made uneven progress toward its 2027” milestone for modernization.

One area of expansion, the report said, is with unmanned aerial systems, which officials said are “quickly approaching US standards.”

Regarding Russia, the report said China has supported Russia's war against Ukraine and sold Russia dual-use items that Moscow's military industry relies on. Dual use items can be used for both civilian and military purposes.