Türkiye's Quakes Revive Concern for Northwestern Industrial Hub

Maiden's Tower, an islet on the Bosphorus, is pictured with the city's skyscrapers in the background in Istanbul, Türkiye, February 23, 2020. (Reuters)
Maiden's Tower, an islet on the Bosphorus, is pictured with the city's skyscrapers in the background in Istanbul, Türkiye, February 23, 2020. (Reuters)
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Türkiye's Quakes Revive Concern for Northwestern Industrial Hub

Maiden's Tower, an islet on the Bosphorus, is pictured with the city's skyscrapers in the background in Istanbul, Türkiye, February 23, 2020. (Reuters)
Maiden's Tower, an islet on the Bosphorus, is pictured with the city's skyscrapers in the background in Istanbul, Türkiye, February 23, 2020. (Reuters)

Earthquakes in southeastern Türkiye that destroyed cities and killed 44,000 people have prompted authorities to look again at how the quake-prone nation might cope with a similar tremor in Türkiye's densely populated, northwestern industrial heartland.

Istanbul, Türkiye's biggest city with a population of 16 million and the country's commercial engine, lies near fault lines that criss-cross the country. Two earthquakes three months apart killed nearly 20,000 in the northwest in 1999. Geologists say another could strike.

The Feb. 6 earthquake has caused about $34 billion in direct physical damage, the World Bank estimated on Monday, but total reconstruction and recovery costs could be twice as high. The southeast region has a sizeable manufacturing sector, albeit smaller than Türkiye's northwest.

A tremor on the scale of February's quake in Istanbul, one of the world's mega cities that lies on the strategic Bosphorus waterway, could wreak havoc and so require more preparation.

"This is (Türkiye's) industrial center. Destruction of that magnitude here could have much graver consequences that could lead to the country's destruction," said Bugra Gokce, deputy secretary-general of the opposition-run Istanbul municipality.

"The state should view this as a national security problem and should prioritize and allocate resources here," said Bugra, responsible for the municipality's earthquake risk management.

This month's earthquakes and the issue of preparedness for a major one in the northwestern Marmara region around Istanbul are set to be key issues in presidential and parliamentary elections which Türkiye is scheduled to hold by June.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's two-decade rule has been defined by a construction boom. He is now expected to face his biggest ever political challenge in those votes and has pledged a swift campaign to rebuild tens of thousands of homes after more than 180,000 buildings were destroyed in the latest quakes.

The Marmara region is home to 25 million people and accounts for just over 40 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) as of 2021, according to figures from Türkiye's Statistics Institute.

Rapid urbanization

It hosts many factories producing goods such as cement, textiles, automotive items and oil. It is a transit channel for international trade with numerous commercial and passenger ports and the Istanbul straits linking the Black Sea and the Mediterranean.

Türkiye sits across several active fault lines, leaving it prone to large earthquakes. A branch of the North Anatolia faultline runs though the Marmara Sea, south of Istanbul.

Experts say attention needs to be focused once again on Istanbul's readiness for a major quake, something that has been a matter of public debate periodically since the 1999 disaster.

"(Building) Standards could have improved over the past 25 years if steps had been taken systematically, but...that hasn't happened," Bugra said, warning that preparation for an earthquake in or near Istanbul was not a task for a single governmental entity and required a nation-wide effort.

"We need a mobilization by all the state institutions....and have to transform policies and do this within the next 5-6 years," Bugra said.

Since 1999, Istanbul has undergone a rapid wave of urbanization, much of it under Erdogan's rule. In 2018, the government introduced a so-called zoning amnesty across Türkiye to legalize unregistered construction work, which engineers and architects warned could endanger lives.

The government denies criticism that it has been systematically lax on safety standards, but last week Turkish Justice Minister Bekir Bozdag acknowledged Türkiye should no longer implement the amnesty and should review penalties on sub standard construction.

Bugra's municipality is run by mayor Ekrem Imamoglu from the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), who has clashed with Erdogan in the past and who is seen as a potential challenger to him in the presidential election.

He is set to announce a "mobilization plan" for Istanbul on Wednesday.

Preparations for an earthquake hitting Istanbul should not be limited to evaluating and strengthening the buildings but also should expand to infrastructure work to secure the flow of energy and water, Bugra said.

Since the quake in the southeast, Istanbul municipality has received more than 100,000 applications for building resilience assessments, triggering the web site to crash, he said.



Compensation Delays Leave Beirut Southern Suburbs’ Families in Ruined Homes

A man surveys the damage caused by Israeli airstrikes on the southern suburbs last week. (EPA)
A man surveys the damage caused by Israeli airstrikes on the southern suburbs last week. (EPA)
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Compensation Delays Leave Beirut Southern Suburbs’ Families in Ruined Homes

A man surveys the damage caused by Israeli airstrikes on the southern suburbs last week. (EPA)
A man surveys the damage caused by Israeli airstrikes on the southern suburbs last week. (EPA)

In Beirut’s southern suburbs, amid buildings scarred by war, residents continue to suffer from severe damage to their homes caused by the recent conflict.

In the Mrayjeh and Saint Therese neighborhoods, locals face a harsh reality of ruined houses, stalled compensation, and unfulfilled promises, while reconstruction projects remain frozen amid deep uncertainty.

In Mrayjeh, where the destruction still marks the walls of homes, Ali, a resident, told Asharq Al-Awsat about the near-total damage to his house.

He said: “After my home was almost completely destroyed, we were told there was an urgent reconstruction plan and that compensation would be paid within a few months. But the reality is completely different.”

“All we actually received was four months’ worth of shelter allowance starting in January, totaling no more than $2,000. After that, all aid stopped, and we have not received any financial support to repair the damage,” added Ali.

On the scale of his losses, Ali said: “My home is no longer habitable. It was completely damaged—from the walls to the floors, from water and electricity networks to furniture that was entirely ruined. I barely managed to salvage anything.”

“Yet, I have received no compensation for the losses. Since the damage occurred, I have been covering all costs out of my own pocket. So far, I’ve spent more than $10,000, and I’m still at the beginning of the road. In my estimation, I need at least another $30,000 to restore the house to a livable condition.”

But the biggest shock came in recent weeks, when they were officially informed that restoration work in the building was halted “until further notice.”

Ali explained that the entity responsible for the repairs, appointed by Hezbollah, told them bluntly: “Funding has stopped, so no work can continue. All they managed to do was reinforce a support wall on the ground floor, then they stopped and left as if nothing happened.”

The building is now at risk of total collapse, with many families either displaced or living in inhumane conditions.

Regarding their appeals to the authorities, Ali said: “All our inquiries receive the same response: ‘There is no funding currently, please wait.’”