Turkish Lira Falls to Record Low Near 19 to the Dollar

Woman holds Turkish Lira banknotes in this illustration taken May 30, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
Woman holds Turkish Lira banknotes in this illustration taken May 30, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
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Turkish Lira Falls to Record Low Near 19 to the Dollar

Woman holds Turkish Lira banknotes in this illustration taken May 30, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
Woman holds Turkish Lira banknotes in this illustration taken May 30, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

Türkiye's lira weakened to a fresh record low of 18.9620 against the dollar on Thursday.

Presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for May 14 are adding to uncertainty. They will determine whether Türkiye continues with unorthodox policies under President Tayyip Erdogan or reverts to orthodoxy as promised by the opposition.

Separately, Türkiye's Treasury said on Thursday it had borrowed $2.25 billion in a eurobond issue maturing in 2029, bringing the amount it borrowed from international markets to $5 billion this year.

The yield to investor in the latest issue was 9.50%, down from 9.75% in the eurobond issued in January, the Treasury said, adding that demand was more than triple the amount issued, Reuters reported.

More than a third of the amount issued was sold to investors in the United Kingdom and more than 20% to those in the United States, it said.

The lira lost some 30% of its value against the dollar in 2022 and 44% the year before.

It is likely to hover around 19 to the dollar until the end of the election cycle, largely thanks to forex interventions, but would likely decline further in the long term if Erdogan wins the election, Wells Fargo said in a note.

Türkiye's international bonds also came under pressure with longer-dated issues falling around half a cent in the dollar, according to Tradeweb. ,



Oil Prices Steady as Markets Weigh Demand against US Inventories

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
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Oil Prices Steady as Markets Weigh Demand against US Inventories

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)

Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as investors weighed firm winter fuel demand expectations against large US fuel inventories and macroeconomic concerns.

Brent crude futures were down 3 cents at $76.13 a barrel by 1003 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures dipped 10 cents to $73.22.

Both benchmarks fell more than 1% on Wednesday as a stronger dollar and a bigger than expected rise in US fuel stockpiles pressured prices.

"The oil market is still grappling with opposite forces - seasonal demand to support the bulls and macro data that supports a stronger US dollar in the medium term ... that can put a ceiling to prevent the bulls from advancing further," said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong.

JPMorgan analysts expect oil demand for January to expand by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) year on year to 101.4 million bpd, primarily driven by increased use of heating fuels in the Northern Hemisphere.

"Global oil demand is expected to remain strong throughout January, fuelled by colder than normal winter conditions that are boosting heating fuel consumption, as well as an earlier onset of travel activities in China for the Lunar New Year holidays," the analysts said.

The market structure in Brent futures is also indicating that traders are becoming more concerned about supply tightening at the same time demand is increasing.

The premium of the front-month Brent contract over the six-month contract reached its widest since August on Wednesday. A widening of this backwardation, when futures for prompt delivery are higher than for later delivery, typically indicates that supply is declining or demand is increasing.

Nevertheless, official Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed rising gasoline and distillates stockpiles in the United States last week.

The dollar strengthened further on Thursday, underpinned by rising Treasury yields ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump's entrance into the White House on Jan. 20.

Looking ahead, WTI crude oil is expected to oscillate within a range of $67.55 to $77.95 into February as the market awaits more clarity on Trump's administration policies and fresh fiscal stimulus measures out of China, OANDA's Wong said.