Egypt's Net Foreign Assets Drop by $1.3 Bln in February

The headquarters of the Central Bank of Egypt in the capital, Cairo. (Reuters)
The headquarters of the Central Bank of Egypt in the capital, Cairo. (Reuters)
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Egypt's Net Foreign Assets Drop by $1.3 Bln in February

The headquarters of the Central Bank of Egypt in the capital, Cairo. (Reuters)
The headquarters of the Central Bank of Egypt in the capital, Cairo. (Reuters)

Egypt's net foreign assets (NFAs) declined by 49.8 billion Egyptian pounds in February as pressure on the currency continued to build.

The second drop in as many months took NFAs to a negative 704.23 billion Egyptian pounds from minus 654.43 billion at the end of January, the Central Bank of Egypt data showed.

That equates to a February decline of $1.31 billion using end-of-month central bank exchange rates, Reuters calculations show.

The central bank allowed the Egyptian pound's official price to depreciate against the dollar by 1.4% in February.

The official exchange rate on Sunday was 30.9, while street dealers were offering to buy dollars for 36 pounds, down from 35 last week.

NFAs, which represent banking system assets owed by non-residents minus liabilities, have helped the central bank to support Egypt's currency over the past 18 months.

Egypt's NFAs had stood at a positive 248 billion pounds in September 2021, before the decline began.

Meanwhile, the National Bank of Egypt (NBE) and Banque Misr have recently issued two new certificates of deposit (CDs) with fixed yields of 19% and a decreasing yield of 22%.

The first certificate is fixed for three years at a rate of 19% annually, and the return is paid monthly. The other CD has a decreasing yield of 22%, disbursing a yield of 22% over the first year, 18% over the second year, and 16% over the third year, according to the Middle East News Agency (MENA).

The issuance of these certificates reflects the positive outlook of a drop in interest rates in the coming period and a gradual decline in inflation amid stability in the markets, added MENA.

Moreover, the central bank announced on Thursday that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to raise key policy rates by 200 bps.

In its meeting, the overnight deposit rate, overnight lending rate, and the rate of the main operation were raised by 200 bps to 18.25%, 19.25%, and 18.75%, respectively.

Meanwhile, Egyptian Exchange (EGX) indexes posted collective gains at the close of Sunday's trading session.

The market capital gained about 18 billion pounds to close at 1.067 trillion pounds, amid transactions that totaled 2 billion pounds.

The EGX 30 benchmark index was up by 1.68%, registering 16,694.46 points.

The broader EGX 70 EWI index of the leading small and mid-cap enterprises (SMEs) increased by 1.41%, ending at 2,846.98 points.

The all-embracing EGX 100 index rose by 1.63%, closing at 4,301.27 points.



After Trump’s Victory, Arab Demands for Competitive Advantages Due to Regional Tensions

Donald Trump addresses his supporters at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida on Wednesday. (EPA)
Donald Trump addresses his supporters at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida on Wednesday. (EPA)
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After Trump’s Victory, Arab Demands for Competitive Advantages Due to Regional Tensions

Donald Trump addresses his supporters at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida on Wednesday. (EPA)
Donald Trump addresses his supporters at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida on Wednesday. (EPA)

With the election of Donald Trump as US president, the global economy has gained direction for the coming years. Trump’s policies favor corporate tax cuts, increased investment, and expansionary monetary policies. He also promotes local production to boost job creation, which involves imposing significant tariffs on trade partners, particularly in Asia. This approach could trigger a trade war, affecting inflation in both the US and worldwide.

The US economy is already grappling with high prices, slower economic growth, and rising unemployment, alongside a national debt nearing 99% of GDP. This backdrop underscores the importance of economic issues in the recent election.

For the new US administration, domestic concerns will not be the sole priority. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, especially recent Middle Eastern conflicts, will also impact the US economy. To gain regional insights, Asharq Al-Awsat consulted economists from various Arab nations on their expectations and requests from the US president regarding the Middle East.

Priority of Regional Stability

Dr. Mohamed Youssef, an Egyptian economist, emphasized that regional stability is crucial, benefiting the economy and paving the way for resolving complex issues like the Nile Dam dispute affecting Egypt. He highlighted the American role in fostering calm in the region.

Iraqi economist Durgham Mohamed Ali noted that US relations vary across the Middle East; while Lebanon and Yemen remain outside current US alliances, Sudan and Somalia require international aid to rebuild infrastructure.

Competitive Advantage for Arab Countries

Ahmed Moaty, a global markets expert from Egypt, suggested that reduced US tariffs would improve Arab economies’ competitiveness. However, he pointed out the American high debt could motivate the administration to impose tariffs to protect local industries and reduce imports. Ali observed that US tariffs are interest-driven and selective, favoring allies like Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea while being stringent toward BRICS members, such as China, Brazil, and South Africa. He linked tariff policies to regional geopolitics, especially the conflicts involving Israel, Lebanon, Palestine, and Iran, which could influence US economic decisions.

Dr. Mohamed Youssef also argued that easing US-China competition could benefit the global economy, as high tariffs on Chinese goods reduce China’s growth, decreasing demand for key commodities like oil.

Ibrahim Al-Nwaibet, CEO of Saudi Arabia’s Value Capital, predicted that a Republican win could positively impact oil and interest rates, revitalizing the petrochemical and trade finance sectors.

On currency, Moaty noted the strong US dollar pressures emerging markets, especially in the Middle East. He suggested offering US Treasury bonds with higher yields to Arab countries as a counterbalance. Ali added that the dollar’s strength poses challenges for countries heavily reliant on US currency amid global liquidity shortages.

The BRICS Bloc

Ali also mentioned the high levels of US debt, explaining: “In general, the entire world is concerned about rising US debt, slowing growth rates... and is wary of the BRICS alliance, which some Arab countries hope to join. The question remains whether a cold economic war will ensue.”

Youssef also discussed the BRICS, which could play a role in attracting the new US president’s attention to countries joining the alliance. He added: “This may provide new competitive advantages for countries in the region, particularly as countries like Egypt, the UAE, and Iran recently joined BRICS, while Saudi Arabia is still evaluating the benefits of such move.”