The current century has come to be painful for the Middle East. Terrorism struck the symbols of the prestige of New York and Washington, and the wounded empire embarked on a punishment journey, the most important of which was the Iraqi adventure.
Lebanon soon joined the list of the sufferers, as assassinations mixed with interventions and cracked institutions.
Then the second decade began, open to all risks. Spring caressed the dreams of the angry and desperate youth. But it soon turned out that it was born in unfavorable circumstances.
The radicals jumped onto the train and took over it. The smell of civil wars wafted, the militias violated the maps, and the spring turned into a dark and blazing fall. The storm gave birth to millions of refugees and populations of dead and wounded. Poverty and fear mounted, and the death boats offered feasts for the fish of the seas.
The region has squandered much of its blood and wealth and prepared for more. In the third decade, the Middle East was still enduring its battles and losses.
Russia’s war in Ukraine stole the spotlight from the terrible Middle East. The reports deceived the intelligence master, and the prolonged conflict turned into a punishment for both sides and for the world as well, due to its repercussions on energy and food prices. Russia sank into the Ukrainian trap, so did the West.
Under the shadow of fear, vengeance, and open appetites, many governments have lost sight of what is going on under their wings. Millions of young men and women are reading the world through their phones and want to join the river of progress. They aspire for modern education, job opportunities, effective health care, and a society that opens the doors to prosperity and innovation. They do not want to be mere fuel to the wars of their ancestors.
They look for a living society that employs technology to improve people’s lives. They are aware that a bullet is not more important than bread, and that slogans do not quell hunger.
Many governments have forgotten that the people of the Middle East are destined to live together under one roof, despite the wounds of the past and the pains of the present. They overlooked the fact that eliminating the other, changing the features of a country and imposing a single model were all outdated practices. They failed to recall that history is not a good teacher unless it opens the windows of the future.
In fact, governments must respond to the needs of the new generations that demand that problems be addressed with modern mentalities and methods.
Conviction has grown that the Middle East cannot afford to walk through the coming decades in the same way like before. Open wars of attrition promise nothing but more uncertainty and turmoil. They drain budgets and prevent countries from keeping up with the successive technological revolutions. The option of permanent residence in the storm destroys the present and kills the future.
In light of this picture, Saudi-Iranian contacts began about two years ago in the Sultanate of Oman. Exploratory meetings took place to understand fears and concerns and the extent of readiness to get out of the prevailing situation. In this climate, Iraq was looking - during the term of the government of Mustafa Al-Kadhimi - for an opportunity to contribute to regional stability, in order to avoid remaining an arena for conflicts and attrition.
Al-Kadhimi moderated the Saudi-Iranian dialogue sessions, which lasted for more than thirty hours and touched on bilateral and regional issues. The last round suggested that the revival of ties has become imminent, and Baghdad expected to raise the level of representation in the negotiations from security to diplomatic.
In fact, turning a long page of confrontation, doubts, and clashes required the sponsorship of a major international guarantor capable of speaking deeply to both sides of the dialogue. This is how the idea of the “Chinese key” was born to ensure opening a door that has been closed for decades.
As relations are built on interests, we understand China’s initiative to engage for the first time as an international sponsor and guarantor, to get out of the tunnel of a complex and persistent regional crisis.
Perhaps the most important guarantee is that the Chinese giant is establishing a strategic partnership with Iran and Saudi Arabia. Its economy and continuous growth will depend in the coming years on the energy coming from the two countries.
Saudi Arabia, which has begun to reap the fruits of the comprehensive renaissance launched by Vision 2030, considers stability a condition for rescuing the Middle East from the circle of failure, attrition and deterioration. The Kingdom is aware that the best guarantee for success is for the winds of stability and prosperity to blow on neighboring countries as well.
Iran may feel the need to re-think its policy in the region, or to take a full-time break to face internal challenges, especially in light of the deterioration in its relations with Europe after the involvement of its drones in the Russian war in Ukraine.
In parallel, China was the only member in the major power’s club, which is capable of talking to both parties, for the sake of success that guarantees all sides’ interests.
The Chinese key is not only an opportunity for Saudi Arabia and Iran. It also offers a chance for countries that have seen their institutions collapse due to several factors, including internal and regional tensions.
Nonetheless, the Chinese mediation is not a magic remedy. It provides an opportunity that should be seized by countries seeking to restore their stability.
The Beijing statement includes a phrase that should be well-understood by the countries of the region. It emphasizes that the two parties (Saudi Arabia and Iran) must “respect the sovereignty of states and refrain from interfering in their internal affairs.”
Respecting the sovereignty of states will not be practically possible unless the active forces in the countries affected by the interventions choose to return to living under the logic of the state and its institutions.
This applies to Iraq, which is trying to revive the logic of the state at the expense of the logic of the factions. It can also be true in Yemen, Lebanon and Syria, despite the differences between the various cases.
China is a demographic, economic and military giant that lives in the era of a man who is the most powerful successor to Mao Zedong. The country is trying to advance and win with the policy of cooperation and prosperity, not through wars. It is taking wise stances towards conflicts, without disrupting its ability to be part of - or a sponsor to - the solution.
This explains perhaps the recent statements of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He knows that the long war is costly for Russia, but fatal for his country. That is why he is looking for the Chinese key, hoping that it will be used in Ukraine after the Middle East.
