What We Know So Far on the Leaked Pentagon Documents

It’s been less than a week since news of highly classified military documents on the Ukraine war surfaced, sending the Pentagon into full-speed damage control to assure allies and assess the scope of the leak.

The information on scores of slides has publicized potential vulnerabilities in Ukraine's air defense capabilities and exposed private assessments by allies on an array of intelligence matters, raising questions about whether the leak will erode allies' trust in sharing information with the US or impact Ukraine's plans to intensify the fight against Russia this spring.

Overall, the leaked documents present a "very serious risk to national security," a top Pentagon spokesman told reporters Monday.

This is a look at what the documents are, what is known about how they surfaced, and their potential impact.

What are they?

The classified documents — which have not been individually authenticated by US officials — range from briefing slides mapping out Ukrainian military positions to assessments of international support for Ukraine and other sensitive topics, including under what circumstances Russian President Vladimir Putin might use nuclear weapons.

There's no clear answer on how many documents were leaked. The Associated Press has viewed approximately 50 documents; some estimates put the total number in the hundreds.

Where did they come from?

No one knows for sure, not even the Pentagon chief.

"They were somewhere in the web, and where exactly, and who had access at that point, we don’t know. We simply don’t know," Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said at a press conference Tuesday. "We will continue to investigate and turn over every rock until we find the source of this and the extent of it."

It's possible the leak may have started on a site called Discord.

Discord is a social media platform popular with people playing online games. The Discord site hosts real-time voice, video and text chats for groups and describes itself as a place "where you can belong to a school club, a gaming group, or a worldwide art community."

In one of those forums, originally created to talk about a range of topics, members would debate the war in Ukraine. According to one member of the chat, an unidentified poster shared documents that the poster claimed were classified, first typing them out with the poster’s own thoughts, then, as of a few months ago, uploading images of folded papers.

The person who said he was a member of the forum told The Associated Press that another person, identified online only as "Lucca," shared the documents in a different Discord chat. From there, they appear to have been spread until they were picked up by the media.

Many details of the story can't be immediately verified. And top US officials acknowledge publicly that they're still trying to find answers.

What’s been revealed

The leaks have highlighted how closely the US monitors how its allies and friends interact with Russia and China. Officials in several countries have denied or rejected allegations from the leaked records.

The Washington Post reported Monday that Egypt's president ordered subordinates to secretly prepare to ship up to 40,000 rockets to Russia as it wages war in Ukraine. A spokesman for the Egyptian foreign ministry said Egypt was maintaining "noninvolvement in this crisis and committing to maintain equal distance with both sides."

Other leaks have concerned allegations that South Korean leaders were hesitant to ship artillery shells to Ukraine and that Israel's Mossad spy service opposed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's proposed overhaul of the judiciary.

Funded at $90 billion annually, the US intelligence agencies have sweeping powers to tap electronic communications, run spies and monitor with satellites. The results of those powers are rarely seen in public, even in limited form.

US response

The Pentagon has begun an internal review to assess the leak's impact on national security. The review is being led by Milancy D. Harris, the deputy undersecretary of defense for intelligence and security, a defense official said in a statement to AP. The team includes representatives from the offices of legislative affairs, public affairs, policy, legal counsel and the joint staff, the official said.

The Pentagon was also quickly taking steps to reduce the number of people who have access to briefings, a second defense official said. Both officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. Pentagon officials are also closely monitoring where the leaked slides are "being posted and amplified," said Chris Meagher, assistant to the secretary of defense for public affairs.

Separately, the Justice Department has opened a criminal investigation into how the slides were obtained and leaked.

CIA Director William Burns on Tuesday called the leak "deeply unfortunate."

"It’s something that the US government takes extremely seriously," he said in remarks at Rice University. "The Pentagon and the Department of Justice have now launched a quite intense investigation to get to the bottom of this."

What’s the impact?

Senior military leaders have been contacting allies to address the fallout. That includes calls "at a high level to reassure them of our commitment to safeguarding intelligence and fidelity to our security partnerships. Those conversations began over the weekend and are ongoing," Meagher said.

US officials are likely to face more questions when they travel to Germany next week for the next contact group meeting, where representatives of more than 50 nations gather to coordinate weapons and aid support for Ukraine. But the document leak is not expected to affect that meeting or allies' willingness to continue to provide military assistance to Ukraine, a senior defense official told The Associated Press, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

"I think a lot of the allies will probably be more curious about why it happened," said Chris Skaluba, director of the Atlantic Council's transatlantic security initiative.

Given the high-level security clearance needed to access the information in the first place, the leak raises questions as to who "would have that much of an agenda to put it out there," and whether the intent was to undermine support for Ukraine, Skaluba said.

Austin on Tuesday contacted his South Korean counterpart, Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup, to discuss the leaked documents, several of which were particularly sensitive to Seoul, not only publicizing US surveillance of its ally but also detailing its reservations about providing munitions directly to Ukraine.

Following the call, the Defense Ministry issued a statement saying Lee and Austin had agreed that "a significant number of the relevant documents were forged."

"Going forward, we will further strengthen the trust and cooperative system between the two countries through the solid ‘Korea-US intelligence alliance,'" it said.

And both Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken reached out to their counterparts in Ukraine. Austin suggested Tuesday the leaks would not have much of an impact on Ukraine's plans for a spring offensive.

Ukraine’s strategy will "not be driven by a specific plan. They have a great plan to start and but only President Zelenskyy and his leadership really know the full details of that plan," Austin said.

For other sensitive issues highlighted in the leaked slides, such as Ukraine's shortage of air defense munitions, the shortage itself has been known and is one of the reasons US military leaders have been pressing allies to supply whatever systems they can, such as the Iris-T systems pledged from Germany and the US-manufactured Hawk air defense systems provided by Spain.

"Publicizing an apparent shortage of anti-aircraft missiles may give comfort to Russia. But if it energizes Ukraine’s partners to accelerate delivery of missiles and other air defense capabilities, Kyiv will be grateful. The bigger ‘known unknown’ is the extent to which these leaks influence US political support for Ukraine," said Ben Barry, senior fellow for land warfare at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.

The baby in Gaza who was recently paralyzed by polio was infected with a mutated strain of the virus that vaccinated people shed in their waste, according to scientists who say the case is the result of “an unqualified failure” of public health policy.
The infection, which marked the first detection of polio in the war-torn Palestinian territory in more than 25 years, paralyzed the lower part of one leg in the unvaccinated 10-month-old child. The baby boy was one of hundreds of thousands of children who missed vaccinations because of the fighting between Israel and Hamas.
Scientists who have been monitoring polio outbreaks said the baby's illness showed the failures of a global effort by the World Health Organization and its partners to fix serious problems in their otherwise largely successful eradication campaign, which has nearly wiped out the highly infectious disease. Separately, a draft report by experts deemed the WHO effort a failure and “a severe setback.”
The polio strain in question evolved from a weakened virus that was originally part of an oral vaccine credited with preventing millions of children worldwide from being paralyzed. But that virus was removed from the vaccine in 2016 in hopes of preventing vaccine-derived outbreaks.
Public health authorities knew that decision would leave people unprotected against that particular strain, but they thought they had a plan to ward off and quickly contain any outbreaks. Instead, the move resulted in a surge of thousands of cases, The Associated Press reported.
“It was a really horrible strategy,” said Columbia University virologist Vincent Racaniello, who was not involved with the report or the WHO. “The decision to switch vaccines was based on an incorrect assumption, and the result is now we have more polio and more paralyzed children.”
A draft copy of the report commissioned by the WHO and independent experts said the plan underestimated the amount of the strain in the environment and overestimated how well officials would be able to squash outbreaks.
The plan led to vaccine-linked polio outbreaks in 43 countries that paralyzed more than 3,300 children, the report concluded.
Even before the Gaza case was detected, officials reviewing the initiative to tinker with the vaccine concluded that “the worst-case scenario has materialized,” the report said.
The report has not yet been published, and some changes will likely be made before the final version is released next month, the WHO said.
The strain that infected the baby in Gaza had lingered in the environment and mutated into a version capable of starting outbreaks. It was traced to polio viruses spreading last year in Egypt, according to genetic sequencing, the WHO said.
In 2022, vaccine-linked polio viruses were found to be spreading in Britain, Israel and the US, where an unvaccinated man was paralyzed in upstate New York.
Scientists now worry that the emergence of polio in a war zone with an under-immunized population could fuel further spread.
Racaniello said the failure to track polio carefully and to sufficiently protect children against the strain removed from the vaccine has had devastating consequences.
“Only about 1% of polio cases are symptomatic, so 99% of infections are silently spreading the disease,” he said.
The oral polio vaccine, which contains a weakened live virus, was withdrawn in the US in 2000. Doctors continued to vaccinate children and eventually moved to an injected vaccine, which uses a dead virus and does not come with the risk that polio will be present in human waste. Such waste-borne virus could mutate into a form that triggers outbreaks in unvaccinated people.
The report's authors faulted leaders at the WHO and its partners, saying they were unable or unwilling “to recognize the seriousness of the evolving problem and take corrective action.”
WHO spokesman Oliver Rosenbauer acknowledged that the vaccine strategy “exacerbated” the risk of epidemics linked to the vaccine.
He said in an email that immunization “was not implemented in such a way to rapidly stop outbreaks or to prevent new strains from emerging.” Rosenbauer said not hitting vaccination targets was the biggest risk for allowing vaccine-linked viruses to emerge.
“You need to reach the children with the vaccines ... regardless of which vaccines are used,” he said.
The WHO estimates that 95% of the population needs to be immunized against polio to stop outbreaks. The UN health agency said only about 90% of Gaza’s population was vaccinated earlier this year.
To try to stop polio in Gaza and the wider region, the WHO and its partners plan two rounds of vaccination campaigns later this week and next month, aiming to cover 640,000 children. Authorities will use a newer version of the oral polio vaccine that targets the problematic strain. The weakened live virus in the new vaccine is less likely to cause vaccine-derived outbreaks, but they are still possible.
Racaniello said it was “unethical” that the WHO and its partners were using a vaccine that is unlicensed in rich countries precisely because it can increase the risk of polio in unvaccinated children.
The oral polio vaccine, which has reduced infections globally by more than 99%, is easy to make and distribute. Children require just two drops per dose that can be administered by volunteers. The oral vaccine is better at stopping transmission than the injected version, and it is cheaper and easier to administer.
But as the number of polio cases caused by the wild virus have plummeted in recent years, health officials have been struggling to contain the increasing spread of vaccine-linked cases, which now comprise the majority of polio infections in more than a dozen countries, in addition to Afghanistan and Pakistan, where transmission of the wild virus has never been stopped.
“This is the result of the Faustian bargain we made when we decided to use" the oral polio vaccine, said Dr. Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center at the University of Philadelphia. “If we really want to eradicate polio, then we need to stop using the vaccine with live (weakened) virus.”

What We Know So Far on the Leaked Pentagon Documents