What We Know So Far on the Leaked Pentagon Documents

It’s been less than a week since news of highly classified military documents on the Ukraine war surfaced, sending the Pentagon into full-speed damage control to assure allies and assess the scope of the leak.

The information on scores of slides has publicized potential vulnerabilities in Ukraine's air defense capabilities and exposed private assessments by allies on an array of intelligence matters, raising questions about whether the leak will erode allies' trust in sharing information with the US or impact Ukraine's plans to intensify the fight against Russia this spring.

Overall, the leaked documents present a "very serious risk to national security," a top Pentagon spokesman told reporters Monday.

This is a look at what the documents are, what is known about how they surfaced, and their potential impact.

What are they?

The classified documents — which have not been individually authenticated by US officials — range from briefing slides mapping out Ukrainian military positions to assessments of international support for Ukraine and other sensitive topics, including under what circumstances Russian President Vladimir Putin might use nuclear weapons.

There's no clear answer on how many documents were leaked. The Associated Press has viewed approximately 50 documents; some estimates put the total number in the hundreds.

Where did they come from?

No one knows for sure, not even the Pentagon chief.

"They were somewhere in the web, and where exactly, and who had access at that point, we don’t know. We simply don’t know," Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said at a press conference Tuesday. "We will continue to investigate and turn over every rock until we find the source of this and the extent of it."

It's possible the leak may have started on a site called Discord.

Discord is a social media platform popular with people playing online games. The Discord site hosts real-time voice, video and text chats for groups and describes itself as a place "where you can belong to a school club, a gaming group, or a worldwide art community."

In one of those forums, originally created to talk about a range of topics, members would debate the war in Ukraine. According to one member of the chat, an unidentified poster shared documents that the poster claimed were classified, first typing them out with the poster’s own thoughts, then, as of a few months ago, uploading images of folded papers.

The person who said he was a member of the forum told The Associated Press that another person, identified online only as "Lucca," shared the documents in a different Discord chat. From there, they appear to have been spread until they were picked up by the media.

Many details of the story can't be immediately verified. And top US officials acknowledge publicly that they're still trying to find answers.

What’s been revealed

The leaks have highlighted how closely the US monitors how its allies and friends interact with Russia and China. Officials in several countries have denied or rejected allegations from the leaked records.

The Washington Post reported Monday that Egypt's president ordered subordinates to secretly prepare to ship up to 40,000 rockets to Russia as it wages war in Ukraine. A spokesman for the Egyptian foreign ministry said Egypt was maintaining "noninvolvement in this crisis and committing to maintain equal distance with both sides."

Other leaks have concerned allegations that South Korean leaders were hesitant to ship artillery shells to Ukraine and that Israel's Mossad spy service opposed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's proposed overhaul of the judiciary.

Funded at $90 billion annually, the US intelligence agencies have sweeping powers to tap electronic communications, run spies and monitor with satellites. The results of those powers are rarely seen in public, even in limited form.

US response

The Pentagon has begun an internal review to assess the leak's impact on national security. The review is being led by Milancy D. Harris, the deputy undersecretary of defense for intelligence and security, a defense official said in a statement to AP. The team includes representatives from the offices of legislative affairs, public affairs, policy, legal counsel and the joint staff, the official said.

The Pentagon was also quickly taking steps to reduce the number of people who have access to briefings, a second defense official said. Both officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. Pentagon officials are also closely monitoring where the leaked slides are "being posted and amplified," said Chris Meagher, assistant to the secretary of defense for public affairs.

Separately, the Justice Department has opened a criminal investigation into how the slides were obtained and leaked.

CIA Director William Burns on Tuesday called the leak "deeply unfortunate."

"It’s something that the US government takes extremely seriously," he said in remarks at Rice University. "The Pentagon and the Department of Justice have now launched a quite intense investigation to get to the bottom of this."

What’s the impact?

Senior military leaders have been contacting allies to address the fallout. That includes calls "at a high level to reassure them of our commitment to safeguarding intelligence and fidelity to our security partnerships. Those conversations began over the weekend and are ongoing," Meagher said.

US officials are likely to face more questions when they travel to Germany next week for the next contact group meeting, where representatives of more than 50 nations gather to coordinate weapons and aid support for Ukraine. But the document leak is not expected to affect that meeting or allies' willingness to continue to provide military assistance to Ukraine, a senior defense official told The Associated Press, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

"I think a lot of the allies will probably be more curious about why it happened," said Chris Skaluba, director of the Atlantic Council's transatlantic security initiative.

Given the high-level security clearance needed to access the information in the first place, the leak raises questions as to who "would have that much of an agenda to put it out there," and whether the intent was to undermine support for Ukraine, Skaluba said.

Austin on Tuesday contacted his South Korean counterpart, Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup, to discuss the leaked documents, several of which were particularly sensitive to Seoul, not only publicizing US surveillance of its ally but also detailing its reservations about providing munitions directly to Ukraine.

Following the call, the Defense Ministry issued a statement saying Lee and Austin had agreed that "a significant number of the relevant documents were forged."

"Going forward, we will further strengthen the trust and cooperative system between the two countries through the solid ‘Korea-US intelligence alliance,'" it said.

And both Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken reached out to their counterparts in Ukraine. Austin suggested Tuesday the leaks would not have much of an impact on Ukraine's plans for a spring offensive.

Ukraine’s strategy will "not be driven by a specific plan. They have a great plan to start and but only President Zelenskyy and his leadership really know the full details of that plan," Austin said.

For other sensitive issues highlighted in the leaked slides, such as Ukraine's shortage of air defense munitions, the shortage itself has been known and is one of the reasons US military leaders have been pressing allies to supply whatever systems they can, such as the Iris-T systems pledged from Germany and the US-manufactured Hawk air defense systems provided by Spain.

"Publicizing an apparent shortage of anti-aircraft missiles may give comfort to Russia. But if it energizes Ukraine’s partners to accelerate delivery of missiles and other air defense capabilities, Kyiv will be grateful. The bigger ‘known unknown’ is the extent to which these leaks influence US political support for Ukraine," said Ben Barry, senior fellow for land warfare at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.

The ferocious exchange of fire by Hezbollah and the Israeli military is raising fears of a regional war beyond the tense border.
The risks for Lebanon are far greater than in 2006, when a monthlong war with Israel ended in a draw. Lebanon has struggled with years of political and economic crises that left it indebted, without a stable electricity supply, a proper banking system and with rampant poverty, The Associated Press reported.
And with Hezbollah’s military power significantly greater, there are concerns that a new war would be far more destructive and prolonged.
Can Lebanon afford any of it?
Planning for a 2006 war repeat — or worse Since Hezbollah and Israel began firing rockets and drones at each other a day after the start of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza on Oct. 7, the conflict has been mostly limited to border towns. But with the threat of a wider war, Lebanon has scrambled to equip hospitals with supplies and prepare public schools to open up to people seeking shelter.
A rare Israeli airstrike in southern Beirut last month that killed a top Hezbollah commander set off a flurry of meetings between humanitarian organizations and the Lebanese government, said Laila Al Amine, who heads the Beirut office of international relief organization Mercy Corps. It's one of some 60 organizations helping the government with its relief efforts.
The government and UN agencies prepared a comprehensive response plan this month outlining two possible scenarios: a limited escalation that would resemble the 2006 war, with an estimated 250,000 people displaced, and a worst-case scenario of “uncontrolled conflict” that would displaced at least 1 million people.
The UN-drafted plan, a copy of which was obtained by The Associated Press, projects a monthly cost of $50 million in case of a limited escalation and $100 million if an all-out war breaks out.
The Lebanese government said that funding for the emergency will come from creditors and humanitarian aid organizations. But the authorities have struggled to find money to care for 100,000 currently displaced and an estimated 60,000 people living in conflict areas, which is costing about $24 million a month.
Environment Minister Nasser Yassin, who is spearheading relief operations, told reporters after an emergency government meeting Sunday that the morning attacks won't change the plan.
“It already presents scenarios of all the possibilities that could happen, among them is an expansion of the hostilities,” said Yassin.
Indebted and cash-strapped Lebanon desperate for aid money decades of corruption and political paralysis have left Lebanon’s banks barely functional, while electricity services are almost entirely in the hands of private diesel-run generator owners and fuel suppliers. Public service institutions rely on aid groups and international donors to function at a barebones level. Lebanese who once lived in relative comfort are receiving food and financial aid to survive.
In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic further battered the economy, and the Beirut port explosion flattened several neighborhoods in the heart of the capital. Lebanon’s banks and the ruling elite have resisted painful reforms as a condition for an International Monetary Fund bailout while the infrastructure continued to wither and living conditions worsened.
Tourism, which officials had relied on to help rebuild the economy, has also taken a hit since the border conflict with Israel.
And unlike in 2006, Lebanon is hosting more than 1 million Syrian refugees who fled the conflict in their country. Health Minister Firas Abiad told the AP earlier this month that the Lebanese health system is ill-equipped to treat the additional population in the event of an all-out war, as international funding for Syrian refugees continues to decline.
In April, Yassin said the country had only half the money needed to respond to the conflict and ensuing humanitarian needs.
Lebanon faces tougher logistics In 2006, Israel bombed the runways of Lebanon’s only airport, putting it largely out of commission, and imposed an air and sea blockade. Its bombardment crippled critical infrastructure and flattened neighborhoods, with damage and losses worth $3.1 billion, according to the World Bank.
But aid groups eventually were able to send supplies through the country’s ports and at times through the airport using the remaining limited runway space. In their assessment of the war, the UN said that their relief efforts was not in response to a humanitarian crisis. “People did not die from poor sanitation, hunger or disease. They died from bombs and shells,” UN OCHA said in a report a month after the war.
Many Lebanese were able to flee to neighboring Syria, where an uprising in 2011 plunged the country into a civil war. It's unclear how easy crossing the border would be this time, both for civilians and aid groups.
It is also unclear whether the Beirut port, still not fully rebuilt after the devastating blast in 2020, would have sufficient capacity in case of a wider war. Its damaged grain silos collapsed in 2022, and the country relies on minimal food storage due to the financial crisis.
“Lebanon apparently has stocks of food and fuel for two-three months, but what happens beyond this duration?” Al Amine said. “We only have one airport and we can’t transport things through our land borders. It would be difficult to bring items into the country.”
An empowered Hezbollah In 2006, Hezbollah reportedly had some 15,000 rockets in its arsenal, “but more recent unofficial estimates suggest this number has multiplied by almost 10 times,” said Dina Arakji, associate analyst at UK-based risk consultancy firm Control Risks.
The group has also “acquired more advanced weaponry, including precision missiles and variants of Iranian arms, as well as Chinese and Russian weaponry,” she said.
Hezbollah, which relies on a network of Iran-backed allied groups that could enter the conflict, has also substantially expanded its drone arsenal and capabilities, against which Israeli air defenses are less effective.
Lebanese officials and international diplomats hope that an elusive cease-fire agreement in Gaza will bring calm in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has said it will halt its attacks along the border if there is a cease-fire in Gaza.

What We Know So Far on the Leaked Pentagon Documents