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How Will the Conflict in Sudan Impact Egypt's Stance over GERD?

A view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). (Ethiopian Ministry of Water and Energy)
A view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). (Ethiopian Ministry of Water and Energy)
    Cairo - Osama al-Saeed
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How Will the Conflict in Sudan Impact Egypt's Stance over GERD?

A view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). (Ethiopian Ministry of Water and Energy)
A view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). (Ethiopian Ministry of Water and Energy)

The fighting between the Sudanese military and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has raised concerns that it may affect the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) file as Ethiopia prepares for its fourth filling of the dam on the Nile River.

Observers and experts told Asharq Al-Awsat that the fighting will have a "direct impact" on a number of regional files, including the GERD crisis.

The fighting will "weaken Sudan's reservations" on the filling of the fourth reservoir that is set to begin in summer.

The weakened Sudanese position will only create a greater burden on Egypt and its international efforts to tackle the crisis, added the observers.

A spokesman for the Ethiopian foreign ministry declared last week that his country was determined to complete the construction of GERD.

Addis Ababa does not need anyone's permission to kick off the fourth filling of the dam, he added, stressing that the move will not harm Egypt and Sudan.

Ethiopia had completed the second filling in July 2021 and the third in August 2022. Just days ago, it announced that it had completed 90 percent of the dam.

The developments have deepened the dispute between Ethiopia with Egypt and Sudan that oppose the filling the dam and who have accused Addis Ababa of acting unilaterally.

Former Egyptian Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Dr. Nasreddine Allam said the fighting in Sudan was unfortunate.

Sudan's stability is in Egypt and the region's strategic interest, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Any unrest in Sudan will have deep repercussions on vital strategic files, including water security, he remarked.

He added that the united Sudanese and Egyptian positions were a "real guarantee" that ensures the historic and legal rights of the Nile basin countries.

Cairo and Khartoum fear that the GERD will impact their share of the Nile waters. They have been demanding that Ethiopia join them in signing a binding legal agreement that manages the filling and operation of the dam.

Negotiations over the issue have stalled since January 2021.

Deputy Director of the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies Ayman Abdulwahhab told Asharq Al-Awsat that the unrest in Sudan will directly impact several regional files, including the GERD dispute.

As Ethiopia nears the fourth filling, Sudan will unlikely make any protests or express any reservations amid its internal turmoil, he noted, throwing an added burden on Egypt to handle this vital file.

He urged regional powers, starting with Egypt, to act to put a stop to the internal fighting in Sudan to "avoid a repeat of painful experiences in history", such as those seen in Lebanon, Somalia, Iraq, Yemen and Syria, where internal conflicts flared out to have regional consequences.

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Lebanon's Public Schools Reopen amid War and Displacement

Children playing in a shelter center for displaced people in the town of Marwaniyah in South Lebanon (AP)
Children playing in a shelter center for displaced people in the town of Marwaniyah in South Lebanon (AP)
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Lebanon's Public Schools Reopen amid War and Displacement

Children playing in a shelter center for displaced people in the town of Marwaniyah in South Lebanon (AP)
Children playing in a shelter center for displaced people in the town of Marwaniyah in South Lebanon (AP)

In the quiet seaside town of Amchit, 45 minutes north of Beirut, public schools are finally in session again, alongside tens of thousands of internally displaced people who have made some of them a makeshift shelter.

As Israeli strikes on Lebanon escalated in September, hundreds of schools in Lebanon were either destroyed or closed due to damage or security concerns, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).

Of around 1,250 public schools in Lebanon, 505 schools have also been turned into temporary shelters for some of the 840,000 people internally displaced by the conflict, according to the Lebanese education ministry.

Last month, the ministry started a phased reopening, allowing 175,000 students - 38,000 of whom are displaced - to return to a learning environment that is still far from normal, Reuters reported.

At Amchit Secondary Public School, which now has 300 enrolled students and expects more as displaced families keep arriving, the once-familiar spaces have transformed to accommodate new realities.

Two-and-a-half months ago, the school was chosen as a shelter, school director Antoine Abdallah Zakhia said.

Today, laundry hangs from classroom windows, cars fill the playground that was once a bustling area, and hallways that used to echo with laughter now serve as resting areas for families seeking refuge.

Fadia Yahfoufi, a displaced woman living temporarily at the school, expressed gratitude mixed with longing.

"Of course, we wish to go back to our homes. No one feels comfortable except at home," she said.

Zeina Shukr, another displaced mother, voiced her concerns for her children's education.

"This year has been unfair. Some children are studying while others aren't. Either everyone studies, or the school year should be postponed," she said.

- EDUCATION WON'T STOP

OCHA said the phased plan to resume classes will enrol 175,000 students, including 38,000 displaced children, across 350 public schools not used as shelters.

"The educational process is one of the aspects of resistance to the aggression Lebanon is facing," Education Minister Abbas Halabi told Reuters

Halabi said the decision to resume the academic year was difficult as many displaced students and teachers were not psychologically prepared to return to school.

In an adjacent building at Amchit Secondary Public School, teachers and students are adjusting to a compressed three-day week, with seven class periods each day to maximize learning time.

Nour Kozhaya, a 16-year-old Amchit resident, remains optimistic. "Lebanon is at war, but education won't stop. We will continue to pursue our dreams," she said.

Teachers are adapting to the challenging conditions.

"Everyone is mentally exhausted ... after all this war is on all of us," Patrick Sakr, a 38-year-old physics teacher, said.

For Ahmad Ali Hajj Hassan, a displaced 17-year-old from the Bekaa region, the three-day school week presents a challenge, but not a deterrent.

"These are the conditions. We can study despite them," he said.