The Ukrainians and the Russians exchanged blame over the attack on Nova Kakhovka dam in an area in Kherson (southern Ukraine) controlled by Russia. The attack reminds us of the scale of the troubling predicament Russia now finds itself in.
It is a troubling predicament because Russia’s war on Ukraine has yet to achieve any decisive results. All it has brought about is additional sanctions and complications. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are preparing to launch their counteroffensive, which is believed to have actually begun unannounced, exacerbating Russia’s quandary.
Every war has two tracks: a military track, and the that of negotiation. Whatever the belligerents fail to achieve militarily is negotiated over. In turn, the outcome of these negotiations is largely shaped by the results on the battlefield.
So far, there are no signs that things will change in Russia’s favor on ground.
No serious negotiations are being held to end this war. While the destruction in Ukraine will get worse the longer the conflict goes on, its perpetuation makes things more difficult for the Russians as well. The odds, once we account for internal and external factors, are not in the Russians’ favor.
As far as the Ukrainians are concerned. They have nothing to lose, and ending the war, even if that meant losing territory, would be a victory. Meanwhile, any other outcome would be a defeat to the Russians, who are finding it difficult to keep the areas they claimed to have annexed under control.
The attack on the dam has been interpreted as a tactic intended to impede Ukraine’s counter-advance through flooding. Whoever destroyed the dam, which was built in 1956, the attack demonstrates that patience is wearing thin and that there is no diplomatic track.
Once again, this turns our attention to Russia’s trouble. Moscow is fighting a battle against all of Europe and the United States. It has n real options on the horizon or a concrete plan that can help it make some progress on the ground. Thus, they have no easy choices to make.
Anyone following the debate in Europe or the United States would notice that many people are paying attention to this. They are awaiting the Ukrainian counteroffensive because it will make things worse. The Russians will soon realize this.
Russia’s fatal mistake was not its military or diplomatic strategy. It dealt itself a fatal blow once it decided to enter this war in the first place. Since then, Russia’s fate has been shaped by Western-American sanctions and morally devastating military strikes rather than its leaders.
Declaring war on Ukraine was the easiest decision the Russian president has ever taken. However, the decision to end the war will be the most difficult, not for President Putin but for all of Russia and its future. Indeed, the war has undermined its authority and influence, as well as complicating its ties to its neighbors.
The assumption is that neither the West nor the United States will seek Chinese mediation to end the war. It is Russia that should do it. It is in Russia’s interest to see this war ended now through a mediator who has no interest in defeating Moscow. The Chinese might only want to weaken the Russians.
This is the least Russia could do. It is the least painful way to end the war. Though it would mean the defeat of the Russians, they put themselves in this embarrassing situation or predicament. Thus, the interests of the Russians now dictate soliciting Chinese mediation because Moscow’s choices are all difficult.
