Mohamed El-Erian

A Surging Dollar Is a Mixed Blessing for the US

As US markets were closed to mark the Labor Day holiday, the dollar index surged to a new three-decade high. This is a reminder that the dollar is a relative, rather than an absolute, price — that is, it measures the value of the dollar relative to other currencies. But this also signals that…

Davos Meetings Are Full of Potential But Rarely Full of Solutions

I have never taken up the opportunity to attend the Davos meeting and I will pass again this year. That, however, does not mean that I do not follow its evolution and outcomes. I am certainly interested in what could emerge from a meeting that brings together so many leaders of governments, civil…

Omicron Variant Resurrects the Risk of US Stagflation

Last week’s economic and Covid-related news may well resurrect a risk narrative that makes policy makers and virtually all financial markets particularly anxious: US stagflation, that awful combination of rising inflation and declining growth. How this risk plays out in the next few months,…

G-20 Needs a ‘Sputnik Moment’ on the Global Economy

The Group of 20 meeting of high-level policy makers in Rome this weekend provides a timely opportunity to assess progress on the four broad policy responses that I have argued repeatedly are vital for the global economy. They hold the key to maintaining a strong and durable recovery that is also…

Big Jobs Miss Muddles Picture for Economy and the Fed

The highly anticipated US jobs report for August should make us feel sorry for those having to navigate through the flood of economic data, be they analysts or, more importantly, policy makers. With another set of data subject to divergent interpretations, the post-pandemic economic landscape…

Delta’s Unknowns Complicate Medical and Economic Responses

The surge in the Covid-19 delta variant worldwide is raising concerns about the robustness of what has already been an uneven and uncertain global economic recovery. The extent of this worry speaks to medical and economic policy issues, dealing both with factors that we seem to know a lot about and…

5 Key Takeaways for Global Markets in 2020

A year like no other for most of us around the world will be remembered in the US and international financial markets for five remarkable features: The Great Disconnect Between Wall Street and Main Street Apart from a few weeks culminating in the 2020 market lows of March 23, stocks managed to…

Has the Stock Market Established a Bottom?

The Jan. 4 monster rally in risk assets, which saw major US stock indexes surge by 3 percent to 4 percent and the “risk-free” yield on 10-year US Treasuries rise by 11 basis points, was a stark illustration of the power of a favorable alignment of the trifecta of economic fundamentals, central bank…

Life is Getting Harder for Central Banks

For reasons largely outside its control, the Federal Reserve is now being widely blamed for fueling financial market instability and risking derailment of the U.S. economy. This is quite a contrast from just a few month ago, when it was still being feted by many for its role as an active and…

Now Europe Should Worry About Higher US Yields

As higher growth and inflation, together with Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes, have pushed Treasury yields higher, commentators have pointed to a changing US landscape. Savers can now secure higher interest income; mortgage seekers face funding costs not seen for many years; investors can…