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Military Analyst to Asharq Al-Awsat: Ukrainian Frontline Is Vulnerable, Army Struggles with Reserve Shortage

The British expert says Trump’s recent comments on NATO are a gift and “green light” to Putin to attack certain countries.

British military expert Glen Grant.
British military expert Glen Grant.
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Military Analyst to Asharq Al-Awsat: Ukrainian Frontline Is Vulnerable, Army Struggles with Reserve Shortage

British military expert Glen Grant.
British military expert Glen Grant.

In an exclusive interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, British military expert Glen Grant discussed the ongoing situation on the Ukrainian-Russian front as the second year of the Russian invasion of Ukraine approaches. Grant highlighted the challenges confronting the Ukrainian army, emphasizing that Russia is poised to gradually annex Ukrainian territories, capitalizing on its numerical superiority and learning from past military mistakes.

Regarding Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's recent appointment of Oleksandr Syrsky as the new commander of the Ukrainian army, replacing Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Grant expressed skepticism about the potential field outcomes. He noted the diminishing military support for Ukraine, Zelensky's failure to initiate a recruitment campaign, and Syrsky's affiliation with the Old Soviet military school, similar to his predecessor. Despite these concerns, Grant acknowledged the possibility of Syrsky exceeding expectations and achieving positive results.

British military expert Glen Grant lectures to cadets on improving defense management and training of soldiers, Kiev, Ukraine, January 25th, 2024 (Glen Grant's Facebook)

Grant warned against political interference in the Ukrainian army's decisions, asserting that the Ukrainian political leadership's lack of understanding of military matters, coupled with his perception of Syrsky's appointment as a primarily political decision, could adversely affect the army's performance.

Grant strongly criticized a recent statement by Donald Trump, the former US president and Republican Party candidate for the upcoming presidential elections. Trump suggested that if elected president in November, he would encourage Russia to attack NATO allies falling short of the alliance's agreed-upon defense spending goals.

Grant viewed Trump's statement as a favorable gesture towards Putin, potentially inciting Russian attacks on multiple countries. He expressed the belief that Trump's election as president would pose a significant threat to the security of the world order and Western civilization.

Proudly acknowledging the assistance extended by Britain to Ukraine, Grant acknowledged the existing challenges in British support, highlighting a shortage of stocks. Nevertheless, he assured that London is actively engaged in securing additional aid for the Ukrainian army.

- As the second year of the war draws to a close, could you provide insight into the state of the Ukrainian army on the frontline?

The frontline is currently in a critical state, and the supply situation goes beyond urgency; it's critical. The Ukrainian frontline is notably thin, and the scarcity of manpower has become acute due to a continuous loss of soldiers for a year without adequate replenishment. This stands out as a significant governmental issue.

President Zelensky has not taken steps to support or enact the necessary laws in parliament for mobilizing people. It appears that this hesitancy is driven by his reluctance to upset the country, particularly with an upcoming election that he is poised to win.

Soldiers of the Ukrainian National Guard's "Khartia" Brigade stand guard at a position in the Kupiansk-Lyman area, eastern Ukraine, 10 February 2024 (EPA)

 

- What is the current state of the Russian army from your perspective?

On the Russian side of the frontline, military corruption remains a severe issue. However, the Russians are actively learning and adapting their strategies. Notably, they are quick to adapt to emerging technologies, such as drones, showcasing a level of adaptability that should not be underestimated.

Russia is persistently pushing the frontline back piece by piece, taking advantage of its numerical superiority. This ongoing strategy allows the Russians to attack lightly defended areas, exemplified by the current attack in places like Avdiivka. This approach forces the Ukrainians to deploy reserves to maintain control over villages and towns, as seen previously in Bakhmut, where the Ukrainians incurred significant losses holding a position that was unsustainable, a fact apparent to any solid military analyst.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky and Commander in Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky shake hands after a meeting with newly appointed top military commanders, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine February 10, 2024 (Reuters)

 

- How do you assess Zelensky's decision to replace the former Ukrainian Army Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi with Oleksandr Syrsky?

Syrsky shares an old-school approach with his predecessor, reminiscent of the Russian military's Soviet School. With Syrsky now in charge, will there be a notable difference? Some of his staff believe he will be more open to allowing the Ukrainian commanders to fight in the way that is best for them. However, being a political appointee raises questions about whether Zelensky's demands for him to hold the frontline will prove exceptionally challenging. We might not witness the best of him, given the potential for Syrsky to follow political orders.

Nevertheless, people often exhibit different behaviors when in charge. Syrsky should be given the opportunity to showcase more than currently understood. In my extensive military experience, I've witnessed individuals taking charge and blossoming into a different person than expected. Yet, as a product of the Russian military system, Syrsky has primarily displayed an attitude and manner very closely aligned with the traditional Russian military approach.

- Can the new Ukrainian commander in chief effectively maintain the frontline and initiate a counter-offensive against the Russians?

The burn rate on the Ukrainian battlefield is excessively high, indicating that Ukrainians should have consistently considered this issue, anticipating a slowdown and depletion in supply, which has now been ongoing for three months. Swift replenishment of supplies is unlikely; the Ukrainians cannot suddenly acquire fighter jets or more tanks.

The Ukrainian persistence in holding the line and incurring losses without a sustainable supply strategy is essentially jeopardizing the future, as deceased soldiers cannot contribute to tomorrow's battles. This situation necessitates a shift in the Ukrainian approach to warfare.

Instead of relying solely on a conventional counter-attack, the Ukrainians may need to adopt a more nuanced and strategic military strategy, especially given the apparent political nature of the situation. Effectively navigating these challenges requires a subtle and strategic military game plan in the absence of immediate resource reinforcements.

Photograph released on February 14, 2024, shows Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrsky (2nd L) and Ukraine's Defence Minister Rustem Umerov (L) visiting the frontline positions at an undisclosed location in eastern Ukraine (AFP)

 

- As a military expert in a NATO member state, what is your perspective on the possibility of Trump winning the presidential election in wake of his comments that he intends to encourage Russia to attack NATO allies that fail to meet agreed-upon defense spending goals?

If Trump secures the election, I anticipate Ukraine becoming a secondary concern. The potential danger extends beyond Ukraine to encompass the entire Western world. Trump's comments essentially provide a green light to Putin, enabling him (in the future) to attack certain countries. These comments are not only incredibly stupid, but also pose an extraordinary threat to Western civilization, affecting not only the West, but also Japan, Taiwan, and possibly Australia. Trump is dismantling the Western system without instituting any substantive alternatives, doing so for his own power and ego.

What is urgently needed is a US president who promptly defends NATO against aggression from Iran, North Korea, and any other potential threats, while sending a clear message to China that provocations will not be tolerated. However, Trump's recent comments risk dangerously unraveling the entire world order.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Commander of Ukraine's Ground Forces Col.-Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, right, look at a map during their visit to the frontline city of Kupiansk, Kharkiv region, Ukraine, Nov. 30, 2023 (AP)

 

- How significant is the proposed $60 billion US aid in Congress for Ukraine, and can it help halt the Russian advancement on the frontline?

The $60 billion US aid would be immensely beneficial for Ukraine and addresses a critical need at the moment. This assistance could indeed help Ukraine maintain its frontline. Putin has already initiated World War III, and the key question is whether the Russians can be restrained from extensive conflict or if the situation is irreversibly sliding downhill. The only entity capable of preventing this descent is the United States. If Russia continues unchecked, the global consequences will be severe, with China likely drawing lessons from the situation.

British military expert Glen Grant lectures in Ukraine, January 2024 (Glen Grant's Facebook)

 

- As a British citizen and expert, how do you evaluate the stance of the UK government, army, and intelligence in assisting the Ukrainian army?

I take great pride in what the UK has accomplished so far. The challenge lies in our limited remaining army resources, although we are still actively seeking supplies from other countries to help Ukraine. Until now, I have been genuinely proud of the stance demonstrated by Britain, including the government and parliament, as they have exhibited considerable strength and resilience.

I previously asserted that the United States was the sole country capable of effectively aiding Ukraine. However, I must now acknowledge that India also possesses the necessary equipment, ammunition, and the capacity to significantly support Ukraine's victory. With its substantial numbers and mass, India has the potential to contribute substantially to this cause and provide considerable assistance.

Glen Grant

Who is the Military Expert Glen Grant?

Glen Grant, a 37-year veteran of the British Army, served as a defense attaché in Finland, Estonia, and Latvia. Following his retirement from the military, he has dedicated himself to defense reform efforts. Currently, he is actively engaged in projects spanning over 10 countries in Eastern Europe and Chile. Additionally, Glen imparts his expertise by lecturing at the Riga Business School, primarily focusing on strategy, human resource management, and crisis management. Moreover, he delivers lectures for the Ukrainian military.

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Interviews

Bin Habrish to Asharq Al-Awsat: Hadhramaut on Threshold of New Era

Sheikh Amr bin Habrish, First Deputy Governor of Hadhramaut (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Sheikh Amr bin Habrish, First Deputy Governor of Hadhramaut (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Bin Habrish to Asharq Al-Awsat: Hadhramaut on Threshold of New Era

Sheikh Amr bin Habrish, First Deputy Governor of Hadhramaut (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Sheikh Amr bin Habrish, First Deputy Governor of Hadhramaut (Asharq Al-Awsat)

After nearly 500 days spent in the mountains and highlands, Sheikh Amr bin Habrish, First Deputy Governor of Hadhramaut and commander of the Hadhramaut Protection Forces, has returned to the provincial capital, Mukalla, declaring what he described as the beginning of a “new phase” that will shape a different future for Yemen’s largest eastern governorate.

In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat from his residence overlooking the Arabian Sea, Bin Habrish said Hadhramaut is currently experiencing “a state of stability and reassurance,” which he attributed to the steadfastness of its people and to Saudi support and intervention that came “at the right time.”

He said the current ambition is to build a state based on institutions under which all citizens are united, while preserving Hadhramaut’s distinct character. Bin Habrish also affirmed his commitment to integrating the Hadhramaut Protection Forces into “fair” state institutions.

Addressing security concerns, he described terrorism as “manufactured” and said it has no social base in Hadhramaut. He accused external powers and local actors of exploiting it for their own agendas, while stressing readiness to confront terrorism in all its forms.

Bin Habrish offered his account of the recent handover of military camps led by the Nation’s Shield Forces, saying the achievements were made possible by the resistance of Hadhramaut’s people on their own land, and by Saudi support and what he called the Kingdom’s “honest and decisive” stance at a critical moment.

He said this outcome would not have been possible without the “genuine bond” between Hadhramaut’s society and Saudi Arabia, adding that this relationship has helped restore security and stability to Mukalla after what he described as unnecessary turmoil.

“We were not satisfied with the arrival of forces and the internal conflict and fighting that followed,” he said, adding that some parties felt emboldened and left no room for dialogue.

He accused the Southern Transitional Council of deploying its forces and “fully occupying the governorate,” stressing that Hadhramaut belongs to its people and that any mistake should have been addressed locally, not imposed by force. “We were compelled to resist,” he said, citing home raids and pursuits as “wrong and unjustified.”

Open Channels with Saudi Arabia

Bin Habrish credited Saudi Arabia’s leadership — King Salman bin Abdulaziz, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman, along with the Special Committee and the Joint Forces Command — for Hadhramaut’s current stability.

He said coordination with the Kingdom takes place “at the highest levels,” with open channels and no barriers, praising Saudi intentions and expressing deep appreciation for its support.

A New Era

Bin Habrish said Hadhramaut is entering a new era rooted in its traditions of peace, wisdom, and culture. He reiterated calls for self-rule based on historical grounds, describing it as the minimum requirement for enabling Hadhramaut to build its institutions and deliver services.

He urged unity, mutual compromise, and prioritizing the governorate’s interests, saying: “We forgive and open a new page. We are not seeking revenge. What matters is that Hadhramaut remains at the center of decision-making. Without it, there can be no development.”

Interviews

President of Madagascar to Asharq Al-Awsat: Three-Pillar Economic Plan to Revive the Country

President of Madagascar Michael Randrianirina (Presidency)
President of Madagascar Michael Randrianirina (Presidency)
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President of Madagascar to Asharq Al-Awsat: Three-Pillar Economic Plan to Revive the Country

President of Madagascar Michael Randrianirina (Presidency)
President of Madagascar Michael Randrianirina (Presidency)

President of Madagascar Michael Randrianirina said his country views Saudi Arabia as its “main partner” in the phase of “refoundation” and in building a new development model, revealing to Asharq Al-Awsat a three-pillar economic plan aimed at restoring political and institutional stability, activating structural sectors, and improving the business environment to attract investment, with a focus on cooperation in mining and natural resources, including rare minerals.

In his first interview with an Arab newspaper since assuming office in October, Randrianirina said in remarks delivered via Zoom from his presidential office that Madagascar “possesses real potential in energy, agriculture, mining, tourism, and human capital,” stressing that driving national revival requires consolidating institutional stability and building balanced partnerships with countries such as Saudi Arabia in order to translate potential into tangible outcomes for citizens and youth.

Three-Pillar Economic Plan

The president explained that his plan is based on three main pillars. The first focuses on restoring political and institutional stability through a clear transitional roadmap, the establishment of an executive body to manage and review projects, and the formation of a supporting committee to ensure an orderly and transparent transition.

The second pillar centers on investment in structural sectors, including energy, ports, digital transformation, health, and mining, in partnership with Saudi Arabia and other partners, with the aim of removing the main obstacles to economic revival.

The third pillar, he said, targets creating an attractive environment for investors by improving the business climate, strengthening public-private partnerships, activating special economic zones, and leveraging regional frameworks such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to open broader African markets through Madagascar.

Strategic Partnership and “Investment-Ready” Projects

On plans to enhance economic, investment, and trade cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Madagascar, Randrianirina said his objective is to build a long-term strategic partnership within a clear institutional framework and through flagship projects with tangible impact for both countries.

He proposed the creation of a joint Madagascar–Saudi investment body, to be known as “OIMS,” to coordinate and finance projects in energy, ports, health, digital governance, mining, agriculture, and tourism. He noted that Madagascar is simultaneously preparing a package of investment-ready projects aligned with Saudi Vision 2030 and Africa’s regional integration, in order to provide organized and secure opportunities for Saudi capital and expertise.

Saudi Arabia as the “Main Partner”

Randrianirina emphasized that Madagascar considers Saudi Arabia a key partner in priority sectors. In energy and refining, he said the country plans to establish a national oil refinery, supply fuel directly from the Kingdom, and jointly develop heavy oil resources in western Madagascar.

In ports and logistics, he pointed to efforts to modernize and expand the ports of Toliara and Mahajanga to position Madagascar as a logistics and energy hub in the Indian Ocean.

Regarding digital transformation and secure governance, he said Madagascar aims to launch a secure national digital platform for public administration and security, drawing on Saudi experience.

He also highlighted mining and natural resources, including rare minerals, as a cornerstone of cooperation, with the goal of improving valuation and ensuring traceability of Malagasy gold and other mineral resources in a transparent and mutually beneficial manner. He further expressed interest in the health sector, proposing the establishment of a royal health complex in Antananarivo, followed by a gradual expansion of similar facilities in other regions.

Planned Visit to Riyadh

The President said Madagascar is working with Saudi authorities to arrange an official visit in the near future, with the date to be determined in coordination with the Kingdom.

He described the visit as an important opportunity to meet and engage with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, noting that Vision 2030 has brought about a qualitative transformation in the Kingdom’s image and economic trajectory. He said Saudi Arabia has strengthened its role as a major player in economic modernization, energy diversification, digital transformation, and global investment, while maintaining its central role in the Arab and Islamic worlds.

He added that the reforms and major projects achieved under the vision are a source of inspiration for Madagascar’s refoundation efforts, expressing a desire to benefit from the Saudi experience in areas including energy, infrastructure, digital transformation, health, and natural resource development.

The president said he hopes the visit will include meetings with the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman bin Abdulaziz and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, as well as sectoral meetings covering energy, ports, digital transformation, health, mining, defense and security, trade, culture, and sports, alongside discussions on establishing the joint investment body.

Historical Links with the Arab World

Randrianirina noted that Madagascar had historical links with the Arab world prior to the arrival of Western powers, explaining that Arab sailors, traders, and scholars reached its coasts and left their mark on certain languages, place names, and customs.

Three Major Challenges

The president acknowledged three main challenges facing his country: poverty and food insecurity, lack of infrastructure, and weak institutions. He said a large segment of the population still lives in poverty and that food security is not guaranteed in several regions, stressing that addressing these challenges requires investment in agriculture and rural infrastructure and the search for partners to support sustainable value chains that improve farmers’ incomes.

On infrastructure, he said the capacity of the energy and port sectors remains insufficient, hindering growth and trade, noting that upcoming discussions with Saudi Arabia focus on projects such as the refinery, heavy oil development, the ports of Toliara and Mahajanga, and digital infrastructure. He added that repeated crises have weakened institutions, and that his government is working to strengthen the rule of law, anti-corruption mechanisms, and public investment governance through independent oversight and transparent reporting to restore trust.

Combating Corruption

The President said financial corruption is a serious problem in Madagascar as it undermines public trust and diverts resources away from development. He explained that the anti-corruption strategy is based on three levels: establishing an executive body with clear procedures, independent audits, and periodic reporting; using digitalization to improve traceability and reduce misuse; and strengthening anti-corruption bodies while supporting judicial independence.

When asked about allegations of financial corruption linked to the previous leadership, he said his focus is on institutions rather than personal accusations, stressing that addressing any allegations falls under the jurisdiction of the competent judicial and oversight bodies, which must be protected from political interference and allowed to operate in accordance with the law and due process.

Duty to the Country and Its Youth

The president concluded by saying that he assumed office out of a sense of duty toward the country and its youth, noting that young people represent a significant demographic weight in Madagascar and are demanding change, dignity, and a better future through jobs, education, stability, and opportunities within their own country.

 

Interviews

Microsoft President: Saudi Arabia is Moving from Exporting Oil to Exporting Artificial Intelligence

Naim Yazbeck, President of Microsoft for the Middle East and Africa (Microsoft) 
Naim Yazbeck, President of Microsoft for the Middle East and Africa (Microsoft) 
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Microsoft President: Saudi Arabia is Moving from Exporting Oil to Exporting Artificial Intelligence

Naim Yazbeck, President of Microsoft for the Middle East and Africa (Microsoft) 
Naim Yazbeck, President of Microsoft for the Middle East and Africa (Microsoft) 

As Saudi Arabia accelerates its national transformation under Vision 2030, the region’s technology landscape is undergoing a decisive shift. For the first time, “the region is not merely participating in a global transformation, it is clearly leading it,” said Naim Yazbeck, President of Microsoft for the Middle East and Africa, in an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat.

Yazbeck argued that Saudi Arabia now stands at the forefront of what he called “a historic turning point not seen in the past century,” defined by sovereign cloud infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and national innovation capabilities.

He noted that Saudi Arabia’s rapid progress is driven by clear political will, explaining that the state is not simply modernizing infrastructure, but views AI as a strategic pillar comparable to the historical role of oil. While oil underpinned the economy for decades, AI has emerged as the new resource on which the Kingdom is staking its economic future.

According to Yazbeck, the recent visit of Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman to the United States underscored this shift, with AI and advanced technologies taking center stage in discussions, reflecting Saudi Arabia’s intent to build a globally influential knowledge economy.

This direction marks the start of a new phase in which the Kingdom is no longer a consumer of imported AI technologies but a developer of local capabilities and a producer of exportable knowledge, strengthening technological sovereignty and laying the foundation for an innovation-driven economy.

A Distinctive Tech Market

Yazbeck stressed that the regional landscape, especially in Saudi Arabia, is witnessing an unprecedented shift. Gulf countries are not only deploying AI but also developing and exporting it. The Kingdom is building advanced infrastructure capable of running large-scale models and providing massive computing power, positioning it for the first time as a participant in global innovation rather than a mere technology importer.

He pointed to a common sentiment he encountered in recent meetings across Riyadh’s ministries, regulatory bodies, national institutions, and global companies: “Everyone wants to be ahead of AI, not behind it.” Ambition has translated into action through revised budgets, higher targets, and faster project timelines.

He added that Saudi institutions now demand the highest standards of data sovereignty, especially in sensitive financial, health, and education sectors. The regulatory environment is evolving rapidly; Saudi Arabia has modernized its cybersecurity, data governance, cloud, and AI frameworks faster than many countries worldwide, turning regulatory agility into a competitive asset.

Yazbeck emphasized that success is not measured by the number of AI projects but by their alignment with national priorities, productivity, healthcare, education, and cybersecurity, rather than superficial, publicity-driven initiatives.

The ‘Return on Investment’ Equation

According to the Microsoft official, building an AI-driven economy requires more than advanced data centers. It begins with long-term planning for energy production and the expansion of connectivity networks. He further said that running large models demands enormous electrical capacity and long-term stability, which the Kingdom is addressing through strategic investments in renewable energy and telecommunications.

Yazbeck said return on investment is a central question. Nationally, ROI is measured through economic growth, job creation, higher productivity, enhanced innovation, and stronger global standing. At the institutional level, tangible results are already emerging: with tools such as Copilot, employees are working faster and with higher quality, shedding routine tasks and redirecting time toward innovation. The next phase, he added, will unlock new business models, improved customer experiences, streamlined operations, and higher efficiency across sectors.

Sovereignty and Security

Digital sovereignty is now indispensable, Yazbeck said. Saudi Arabia requires cloud providers to meet the highest accreditation standards to host sensitive national systems, which are criteria Microsoft is working to fulfill ahead of launch. Once the new cloud regions in Dammam go live, they will become part of the Kingdom’s sovereign infrastructure, requiring maximum protection.

Microsoft invests billions annually in cybersecurity and has repelled unprecedented cyberattacks, an indicator of the threats national infrastructure faces. The company offers a suite of sovereign cloud solutions, data-classification tools, and hybrid options that allow flexible operation and expansion. Yazbeck noted that sovereignty is not a single concept but a spectrum that includes data protection, regulatory control, and local hosting all play critical roles.

Data: The Next Source of Advantage

Yazbeck identified data as the decisive factor in AI success. He warned that any model built on unclean data becomes a source of hallucinations. Thus, national strategy begins with assessing the readiness of Saudi Arabia’s data landscape.

He revealed that the Kingdom, working with SDAIA, the Ministry of Communications, and national companies, is constructing a vast, high-quality data ecosystem, laying the groundwork for competitive Arabic language models.

He also called for a robust framework for responsible AI, saying that speed alone is not enough. He stressed that safe and trustworthy use must be built from the start, noting that Microsoft is collaborating with national bodies to craft policies that prevent misuse, protect data, and ensure fairness and transparency.

Skills: A National Advantage

Human capability is the true engine of national power; Yazbeck underlined, pointing that infrastructure means little without talent to run and advance it. He stated that Saudi youth represent the Kingdom’s greatest competitive advantage.

Microsoft has trained more than one million Saudis over the past two years through programs with SDAIA, the Ministry of Communications, the Ministry of Education, and the MISK Foundation. Its joint AI Academy has graduated thousands of students from over 40 universities, and it has launched broad programs to train teachers on AI tools in education.