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Hayat Tahrir al-Sham Takes Over Idlib After Ceasefire Deal

The militant-led Hayat Tahrir al-Sham alliance, whose fighters are seen here during an exercise on August 14, 2018, have taken control of the whole of Syria's last major rebel bastion Idlib under a ceasefire deal with rival Turkish-backed rebels | AFP
The militant-led Hayat Tahrir al-Sham alliance, whose fighters are seen here during an exercise on August 14, 2018, have taken control of the whole of Syria's last major rebel bastion Idlib under a ceasefire deal with rival Turkish-backed rebels | AFP
    Beirut, London- Asharq Al-Awsat
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Hayat Tahrir al-Sham Takes Over Idlib After Ceasefire Deal

The militant-led Hayat Tahrir al-Sham alliance, whose fighters are seen here during an exercise on August 14, 2018, have taken control of the whole of Syria's last major rebel bastion Idlib under a ceasefire deal with rival Turkish-backed rebels | AFP
The militant-led Hayat Tahrir al-Sham alliance, whose fighters are seen here during an exercise on August 14, 2018, have taken control of the whole of Syria's last major rebel bastion Idlib under a ceasefire deal with rival Turkish-backed rebels | AFP

A militant group dominated by Syria's former Al-Qaeda affiliate Thursday sealed its grip on northern Idlib, the last major rebel bastion, in a deal ending days of fighting with rival factions.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) signed a ceasefire with what was left of a rival alliance that sees it confirm its supremacy and unites the region under a jihadist-led administration.

Under an accord reached by rebel backer Turkey and regime ally Russia in September, Ankara was expected to rein in Idlib factions to stave off a threatened regime offensive with potentially disastrous humanitarian repercussions.

The militants' deal, a copy of which was circulated on local media outlets, brings an immediate end to the fighting between HTS and the rival National Liberation Front, which was directly backed by Turkey.

"This morning, HTS and NLF signed an agreement to put an end to ongoing fighting... and establish the control of the salvation government in all areas," the group's propaganda channel Ebaa said.

The self-proclaimed Salvation Government is an HTS-dominated body which had been administering large parts of the Idlib area, including its eponymous capital.

Its reach now extends to most of the Idlib province and parts of the neighboring provinces of Aleppo and Hama.

The deal sees Ankara-backed radical factions Ahrar al-Sham and Suqur al-Sham stand down, as areas they once held come under HTS administrative control.

These include the two major towns of Ariha and Maarat al-Noman.

Last week, HTS seized dozens of villages from another key NLF component, Noureddine al-Zinki, in the northeast of the enclave.

Other militants-- such as the Al-Qaeda-linked Hurras al-Deen group and Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) -- maintain a presence in the Idlib region but are allied with HTS.

The clashes between HTS and its NLF rivals in Idlib had killed 137 people on both sides since the start of the year, most of them fighters, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group.

The deal announced on Thursday provides for an immediate cessation of hostilities, an exchange of detainees, the lifting of all checkpoints inside the region, and its unification under the authority of the Salvation Government.

Analyst Sam Heller said the latest development put HTS squarely in control of the Idlib region.

"Now it can present itself to Turkey and others as an indispensable interlocutor in any non-military solution to Idlib," said the analyst with the International Crisis Group.

It was however unclear if it would make it harder for Turkey to implement the September deal for a buffer zone around Idlib, reached in the Russian resort town of Sochi.

"It's not clear whether the Sochi deal's success and the continuation of the Idlib de-escalation actually depends on the memorandum's literal implementation, or more political atmospherics such as the health of the Turkish-Russian bilateral relationship," he said.

Simultaneously, Ankara has been threatening to launch a cross-border offensive against the Kurdish militia controlling large parts of northeastern Syria.

The recent announcement by US President Donald Trump that he was ordering a full troop pullout from Syria has left Washington's Kurdish allies more exposed than ever.

They have had to cozy up to Damascus, at the expense of their plans for increased autonomy, to guarantee their survival in the face of Turkish threats.

Turkey, which considers the Kurdish YPG militia a terrorist organization, could move into northern Syria to create a buffer along its border.

It made its intentions clear Thursday and warned that it would launch an offensive against Syrian Kurdish forces if the United States delays the withdrawal of its troops from the war-torn country.

"If the (pullout) is put off with ridiculous excuses like Turks are massacring Kurds, which do not reflect the reality, we will implement this decision," Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told NTV television.

Syria's war has killed more than 360,000 people and displaced millions since it started in 2011 with the brutal repression of anti-government protests.

The Russia-backed regime notched up a series of victories against the rebels and extremists last year, and is now in control of around two-thirds of the country.

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Israel’s Retaliatory Responses to Houthis Must Begin by Drawing Intelligence Plan

A person inspects damage at the site where a projectile fired from Yemen landed in Tel Aviv on December 21, 2024 (EPA)
A person inspects damage at the site where a projectile fired from Yemen landed in Tel Aviv on December 21, 2024 (EPA)
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Israel’s Retaliatory Responses to Houthis Must Begin by Drawing Intelligence Plan

A person inspects damage at the site where a projectile fired from Yemen landed in Tel Aviv on December 21, 2024 (EPA)
A person inspects damage at the site where a projectile fired from Yemen landed in Tel Aviv on December 21, 2024 (EPA)

Israel is considering options to respond to repeated attacks fired from Yemen in the past few days, the latest of which was a Houthi missile strike that injured more than a dozen people in Tel Aviv.
But military experts say Israel should first consider an intelligence plan for confronting the new front after it faced significant difficulties in both defending against and responding to the Houthi attacks.
On Saturday morning, Houthis launched a missile that triggered sirens throughout central Israel at 3:44 am. It was the second attack since Thursday.
Israel's military said the projectile landed in Tel Aviv's southern Jaffa area, adding that attempts to intercept a missile from Yemen failed.
“The incident is still being thoroughly investigated,” the army said, adding that following initial investigations by the Israeli Air Force and Home Front Command, “some of the conclusions have already been implemented, both regarding interception and early warning.”
Israeli military experts say the recent Houthi attacks have revealed serious security gaps in Israel's air defense systems.
“The pressing question now is why none of the other of Israel’s air defense layers managed to intercept the warhead,” wrote Yedioth Ahronoth's Ron Ben-Yishai. “The likely explanation is the late detection and the flat trajectory, which prevented the operation of all available defense apparatus.”
He said these incidents might expose a critical vulnerability in the army’s air defense system protecting Israel’s civilian and military home front.
According to Ben-Yishai, two main reasons might explain Saturday’s interception failure.
The first is that the missile was launched in a “flattened” ballistic trajectory, possibly from an unexpected direction.
As a result, Israeli defenses may not have identified it in time, leading to its late discovery and insufficient time for interceptors to operate.
He said the second, and more likely scenario is that Iran has developed a maneuverable warhead.
Such a warhead separates from the missile during the final third of its trajectory and maneuvers mid-flight—executing pre-programmed course changes—to hit its designated target, he wrote.
And while Israel has launched initial investigations into the failure of Israeli defense systems to intercept the missiles, it is now examining the nature, date and location of its response.
When Houthis launched their first missile attack on Israel last Thursday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned them, saying, “The Houthis will learn the hard way.”
But Israeli political analyst Avi Ashkenazi wrote in the Maariv newspaper that Israel should look at reality with open eyes and say out loud that it cannot deal with the Houthi threat from Yemen, and has failed to face them.
Last Thursday, 14 Israeli Air Force fighter jets, alongside refuelers and spy planes, flew some 2,000 kilometers and dropped over 60 munitions on Houthi “military targets” along Yemen’s western coast and near the capital Sanaa.
The targets included fuel and oil depots, two power stations, and eight tugboats used at the Houthi-controlled ports.
But the Maariv newspaper warned about the increasing involvement of Iran in supporting the Houthi forces.
“Iran has invested more in the Houthis in recent weeks following the collapse of the Shiite axis, making the Houthi movement a leader of this axis,” the newspaper noted.
Underscoring the failures of Israel’s air defense systems, Maariv said the “Arrow” missile defense system, Israel's main line of defense against ballistic missiles, had failed four times in a row to intercept missiles, including three launched from Yemen and one from Lebanon.
Yedioth Ahronoth's Ben-Yishai also warned that the threat posed by maneuvering warheads on Iran's heavy, long-range missiles would become existential for Israel should Iran succeed in developing nuclear warheads for these missiles.
Meanwhile, Israel’s Channel 12 said that in recent months, the Middle East has changed beyond recognition.
The channel said that for the first time in more than half a century, a direct and threat-free air corridor has been opened to Iran through the Middle East. Israel will benefit from this corridor to launch almost daily attacks on the border crossings between Syria and Lebanon, it said.
Channel 12 also reported that according to the Israeli military, the new threat-free corridor will help Israel launch a future attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.
“From Israel's perspective, the fall of the Assad regime and the collapse of the Iranian ring of fire are changing the balance of power in the Middle East,” the report added.