Land Subsidence Threatens Iran

This frame grab from video taken on Jan. 8, 2019, shows fissure in the land caused by drought and excessive water pumping, in Malard, west of Tehran, Iran. (AP Photo)
This frame grab from video taken on Jan. 8, 2019, shows fissure in the land caused by drought and excessive water pumping, in Malard, west of Tehran, Iran. (AP Photo)
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Land Subsidence Threatens Iran

This frame grab from video taken on Jan. 8, 2019, shows fissure in the land caused by drought and excessive water pumping, in Malard, west of Tehran, Iran. (AP Photo)
This frame grab from video taken on Jan. 8, 2019, shows fissure in the land caused by drought and excessive water pumping, in Malard, west of Tehran, Iran. (AP Photo)

Fissures appear along roads while massive holes open up in the countryside, their gaping maws a visible sign from the air of something Iranian authorities now openly acknowledge: the area around Tehran is literally sinking.

Stressed by a 30-year drought and hollowed by excessive water pumping, the parched landscape around Iran's capital has begun to sink dramatically. Seen by satellite and on foot around the city, officials warn that what they call land subsidence poses a grave danger to a country where protests over water scarcity already have seen violence.

"Land subsidence is a destructive phenomenon," said Siavash Arabi, a measurement expert at Iran's cartography department. "Its impact may not be immediately felt like an earthquake, but as you can see, it can gradually cause destructive changes over time."

He said he can identify "destruction of farmland, the cracks of the earth's surface, damage to civilian areas in cities, wastewater lines, cracks in roads and damages to water and natural gas pipes."

Tehran, which sits 1,200 meters above sea level against the Alborz Mountains on a plateau, has rapidly grown over the last 100 years to a sprawling city of 13 million people in its metropolitan area.

All those people have put incredible pressure on water resources on a semi-arid plateau in a country that saw only 171 millimeters of rain last year. Over-reliance on ground aquifers has seen increasingly salty water pumped from below ground.

"Surface soil contains water and air. When you pump water from under the ground surface, you cause some empty space to be formed in the soil," Arabi told The Associated Press. "Gradually, the pressure from above causes the soil particles to stick together and this leads to sinking of the ground and formation of cracks."

Rain and snow to recharge the underground aquifers have been in short supply. Over the past decade, Iran has seen the most prolonged and severe drought in more than 30 years, according to the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization. An estimated 97 percent of the country has faced some level of drought, Iran's Meteorological Organization says.

That has caused the sinkholes and fissures now seen around Tehran.

Iranian authorities say they have measured up to 22 centimeters of annual subsidence near the capital, while the normal range would be only as high as 3 centimeters per year.

Even higher numbers have been measured in other parts of the country. Some sinkholes formed in western Iran are as deep as 60 meters.

Those figures are close to those found in a study by scientists at the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences in Potsdam previously discussed by the journal Nature and accepted by the journal Remote Sensing of Environment. Using satellite images between 2003 and 2017, the scientists estimate the western Tehran plain is sinking by 25 centimeters a year.

Either way, the numbers are alarming to experts.

"In European countries, even 4 millimeters of yearly subsidence is considered a crisis," Iranian environmental activist Mohammad Darvish said.

The sinking can be seen in Tehran's southern Yaftabad neighborhood, which sits close to farmland and water wells on the edge of the city. Cracks run down walls and below windows, and waterpipes have ruptured. Residents fear poorly built buildings may collapse.

The sinking also threatens vital infrastructure, like Tehran's International Airport. German scientists estimate that land under the airport is sinking by 5 centimeters a year.

Tehran's oil refinery, a key highway, automobile manufacturing plants and railroads also all sit on sinking ground, said Ali Beitollahi, a Ministry of Roads and Transportation official. Some 2 million people live in the area, he said.

Masoud Shafiee, head of Iran's cartography department, also acknowledged the danger.

"Rates (for subsidence) are very high and in many instances it's happening in densely populated areas," Shafiee told the AP. "It's happening near sensitive infrastructures like airports, which we consider a top priority."

Geopolitics play a role in Iran's water crisis. Since the country's 1979 revolution, Iran has sought to become self-sufficient across industries to thwart international sanctions. That has included agriculture and food production.

The problem, however, comes in inefficient water use on farms, which represents over 90 percent of the country's water usage, experts say.

Already, the drought and water crisis has fed into the sporadic unrest Iran has faced over the last year. In July, protests around Khorramshahr, some 650 kilometers southwest of Tehran, saw violence as residents complained of salty, muddy water coming out of their taps amid the yearslong drought.

The unrest there only compounds the wider unease felt across Iran as it faces an economic crisis sparked by President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw America from Tehran's nuclear deal with world powers.



UN Nuclear Watchdog Says US-Iran Talks at 'Very Crucial' Stage



In this photo released by the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General, Rafael Mariano Grossi attends a meeting with the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Mohammad Eslami, in Tehran, Iran, Thursday, April 17, 2025. (Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran via AP)
In this photo released by the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General, Rafael Mariano Grossi attends a meeting with the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Mohammad Eslami, in Tehran, Iran, Thursday, April 17, 2025. (Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran via AP)
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UN Nuclear Watchdog Says US-Iran Talks at 'Very Crucial' Stage



In this photo released by the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General, Rafael Mariano Grossi attends a meeting with the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Mohammad Eslami, in Tehran, Iran, Thursday, April 17, 2025. (Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran via AP)
In this photo released by the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General, Rafael Mariano Grossi attends a meeting with the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Mohammad Eslami, in Tehran, Iran, Thursday, April 17, 2025. (Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran via AP)

Talks between Iran and the United States over Tehran's rapidly advancing nuclear program are “in a very crucial” stage, the head of the United Nations' nuclear watchdog said Thursday while on a visit to Tehran.

The comments by Rafael Mariano Grossi of the International Atomic Energy Agency in Iran included an acknowledgment his agency likely would be key in verifying compliance by Iran should a deal be reached. Iran and the US will meet again Saturday in Rome for a new round of talks after last weekend's first meeting in Oman, The AP news reported.

The stakes of the negotiations Saturday and the wider geopolitical tensions in the Mideast couldn't be higher, particularly as the Israel-Hamas war rages on in the Gaza Strip.
US President Donald Trump repeatedly has threatened to unleash airstrikes targeting Iran’s nuclear program if a deal isn’t reached. Iranian officials increasingly warn that they could pursue a nuclear weapon with their stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels.

Grossi visits during ‘crucial’ Iran-US talks Grossi arrived in Iran on Wednesday night and met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who now is in Moscow for separate talks likely over the negotiations. On Thursday, Grossi met with Mohammad Eslami, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, then later toured a hall featuring some of Iran's civilian nuclear projects.

“We know that we are in a very crucial, I would say, stage of this important negotiation, so I want to concentrate on the positive,” Grossi told Iranian media. “There is a possibility of a good outcome. Nothing is guaranteed. We need to make sure that we put all of the elements in place ... in order to get to this agreement."

He added: “We know we don't have much time. So this is why I'm here. This is why I'm in contact with the United States as well.”

Asked about Trump's threats to attack Iran, Grossi urged people to “concentrate on our objective.”

“Once we get to our objective, all of these things will evaporate because there will be no reason for concern,” he said.

For his part, Eslami said Iran expected the IAEA to “maintain impartiality and act professionally,” a report from the state-run IRNA news agency said.

Since the nuclear deal’s collapse in 2018 with Trump’s unilateral withdrawal of the US from the accord, Iran has abandoned all limits on its program, and enriches uranium to up to 60% purity — near weapons-grade levels of 90%.

Surveillance cameras installed by the IAEA have been disrupted, while Iran has barred some of the Vienna-based agency’s most experienced inspectors. Iranian officials also have increasingly threatened that they could pursue atomic weapons, something the West and the IAEA have been worried about for years since Tehran abandoned an organized weapons program in 2003.

Despite tensions between Iran and the agency, its access has not been entirely revoked.