Recep Tayyip Erdogan would never have accepted the results of the Istanbul mayoral elections. It is part of his inherent nature to cling on to the city that straddles two continents and has seen countless empires. This is a part of history that this inflated nationalist and religious leader refuses to abandon. His admission of defeat in Ankara is tantamount to severing ties with the capital that was founded by Ataturk in defiance of Ottoman history. The situation is different in Istanbul. Whoever controls it, captures the soul of Turkey. Whoever rules Turkey without Istanbul will have his authority constantly questioned.
Istanbul boasts a wealth of economic opportunities. It also holds personal value for Erdogan because it is from there where he first emerged on the Turkish political scene when he became the city’s mayor in 1994. It is inconceivable for Erdogan that his rival, Ekrem Imamoglu, would capture Istanbul. He fears that he may mirror his rise to power, by first becoming Istanbul mayor and later leader of the country, which would take him out of the picture.
This explains Erdogan’s decision to call for a re-run of the Istanbul elections. Given his plummeting popularity, however, this move may ultimately backfire against him and shorten his time in power instead of extending it.
Poetic language is probably better than political rhetoric in describing Erdogan’s rise to power. He was one of Istanbul’s most successful mayors. In 2002, his Justice and Development party rose to power and made many glowing achievements. Some of its economic accomplishments have been described as miracles. It also succeeded in putting an end to the military’s meddling in political life and liberties. In 2012, negotiations kicked off over resolving the Kurdish problem. Throughout these years, it was said that Erdogan was finding equal footing between Islam and modernity and democracy and Europe and therefore building an unprecedented example.
This all went to his head in 2013 and the downward spiral began. Authorities quelled the Gezi protests, leaving 22 people dead and thousands injured. Journalists and rights activists were arrested and social media sites were regularly blocked. News about corruption became a monthly occurrence. His son, daughter and son-in-law were all surrounded by corruption suspicions.
In 2015, he lost the absolute majority, forcing him to seek an alliance with the semi-fascist Nationalist Movement Party. Negotiations with the Kurds soon came to a halt. The coup attempt took place the following year. Even though coups are usually plotted by a handful of people, some 77,000 people were arrested and 150,000 others were sacked from their jobs.
In 2017, he won a slim 51 percent referendum, which was opposed by the majority of Istanbulites in what was a sign of things to come. In 2018, Turkey was struck by an economic crisis. In the meantime, the mega projects usually dreamed by grandiose leaders were kicking off. He completed the so-called largest airport in the world in Istanbul. Hundreds of laborers died while building the facility and investors have stayed away given its weak economic benefits.
The economy today is at the worst it has ever been. Inflation is hovering near 20 percent, the lira has plummeted and unemployment is on the rise to exceed 2009 figures. Investors have expressed concern over autocratic rule and corruption, especially after Erdogan appointed his son-in-law as finance minister.
His problems with Washington and NATO are also growing. The S-400 missile defense system deal with Russia has forced the US to suspend the delivery of F-35 jets. This was all after the US customs tariffs inflicted the greatest blows to the economy. Washington’s failure to hand over cleric Fethullah Gulen is another open wound in ties between Turkey and the US. Turkey’s role in Syria is another contentious issue.
Erdogan’s latest move in Istanbul has been met with wide European condemnation and strained already poor relations.
The situation has become so dire that reports claimed that Erdogan has even turned to the Kurdistan Workers' Party to propose a return to negotiations in return for the largest Kurdish bloc in Istanbul to vote in his favor in the upcoming elections. The Peoples' Democratic Party silenced rumors by declaring that it will support the opposition.
The situation within Erdogan’s party is no better. Senior members, such as Abdullah Gul, Ahmet Davutoglu and Ali Babacan, may defect and form their own parties. This all implies that Erdogan is not guaranteed victory in the 2023 election. The most dangerous issue is Erdogan’s populism. Up until now, it has coexisted with the electoral process, but it may turn against it.
