Saudi Arabia Sees Healthier Oil Prices in 2020

Saudi Minister of Finance Mohammed al-Jadaan speaks during an interview with Reuters in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia September 18, 2019. REUTERS/Hadeel Al Sayegh/File Photo
Saudi Minister of Finance Mohammed al-Jadaan speaks during an interview with Reuters in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia September 18, 2019. REUTERS/Hadeel Al Sayegh/File Photo
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Saudi Arabia Sees Healthier Oil Prices in 2020

Saudi Minister of Finance Mohammed al-Jadaan speaks during an interview with Reuters in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia September 18, 2019. REUTERS/Hadeel Al Sayegh/File Photo
Saudi Minister of Finance Mohammed al-Jadaan speaks during an interview with Reuters in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia September 18, 2019. REUTERS/Hadeel Al Sayegh/File Photo

Saudi Arabia has expected to see healthier oil prices this year due to mounting global demand.

According to Reuters, Saudi Minister of Finance Mohammed al-Jadaan said Tuesday he expected healthier oil prices in 2020 due to solid demand, reduced output and easing trade tensions.

Saudi Arabia will pump the proceeds from last month’s listing of oil giant Saudi Aramco into the local economy over several years, including building up the domestic defense industry, the minister said on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos.

“We work with our military industry to develop our own military assets in the mid-term to deal with these risks, including investment by PIF,” he added.

“Our focus is firmly on non-oil GDP growth, with focus on tourism, entertainment, sports, technology and financial sector,” Jadaan said.

Bloomberg revealed that the Kingdom issued a seven-year tranche at 110 basis points over US Treasuries, a 12-year offering at a spread of 135 basis points and a 35-year tranche at a spread of 180 basis points.

Saudi Arabia is seeking to issue bonds worth SAR120 billion (USD32 billion) during this year, benefiting from the drop in interest rate and tension in the region.

In Oct., the Kingdom approved the establishment of the National Center for Debt Management. The Riyadh-based center will enjoy financial and administrative independence, and it will be associated organizationally to the minister.

The center will follow up the Kingdom’s credit rating, in cooperation with the relevant government agencies. It will contribute to the formulation and development of the Kingdom’s public debt policy and secure the Kingdom’s financing needs in the short, medium and long term.



Saudi Vision 2030: Historic Economic Transformation through Diversity, Growth  

Vision 2030 was launched on April 25, 2016. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Vision 2030 was launched on April 25, 2016. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Vision 2030: Historic Economic Transformation through Diversity, Growth  

Vision 2030 was launched on April 25, 2016. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Vision 2030 was launched on April 25, 2016. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Salman bin Abdulaziz stressed that Saudi Arabia is making major and lasting progress with its Vision 2030 national transformation plan.

The assertion, also echoed by Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Crown Prince and Prime Minister, was made in remarks included in the 2023 annual report for Vision 2030, which highlighted the successful implementation of the vision’s programs.

Vision 2030’s key objectives include developing promising and emerging sectors, bolstering local content, facilitating business environments, empowering citizens, engaging the private sector, and enhancing overall execution efficiency.

Since the launch of Vision 2030 on April 25, 2016, under the directive of King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed, Saudi Arabia has undergone an unprecedented historic transformation.

This transformation is characterized by remarkable development that supports Vision 2030’s goal of creating a prosperous and promising future through economic growth and improved quality of life.

In the report, Crown Prince Mohammed expressed anticipation for achieving more significant developmental milestones across various fronts, particularly those attained in the past year and previous decades, underscoring the importance of preserving these gains for both the current and future generations.

Historic transformation

Saudi Arabia is going through a big change, with strong economic growth and more connections to the world, according to the report. It is also empowering its citizens and putting protecting the environment first. This makes it a land full of opportunities for everyone to shape a successful future.

Halfway into its journey, Vision 2030 has already met many of its goals faster than expected, the report showed. Now, it is aiming even higher to have a bigger impact.

By the numbers, 87% of Vision 2030 initiatives are done or on track, and 81% of key performance indicators for programs have hit their yearly targets.

In 2023, the non-oil sector made up 50% of the country’s total economy, reaching a record high.

Lasting impact

Vision 2030 is all about creating a lasting impact, bringing more progress and benefits to the Kingdom while opening up bigger opportunities for its people.

The Kingdom’s economic makeover, driven by Vision 2030, is a success story fueled by ambitious goals for a diverse and thriving economy.

This involves big changes in economic policies and substantial investments in key sectors like manufacturing, technology, tourism, renewable energy, mining, and logistics.

Moreover, Vision 2030 puts a strong focus on encouraging entrepreneurship and innovation, building necessary infrastructure, and providing support and funding for startups and innovative companies. The goal is to boost their competitiveness and ability to grow, both nationally and globally.

Vision 2030 progress

The first leg of Vision 2030’s journey saw a lot of economic and structural reforms that set the stage for a successful national transformation, with real-world impacts. Now, as it enters the second phase, growth and opportunities are spreading across many promising sectors.

The private sector is stepping up to help achieve development goals in a more appealing environment, aiming for economic diversity and sustainable social impact in the next phase.

The achievements since the launch of Vision 2030 have boosted the non-oil sector, leading to growth. In 2023, non-oil activities made up half of the total GDP, and unemployment among Saudis stayed close to the 2030 targets. Saudi Arabia has also made progress in various international indicators.

Thriving economy

Saudi Arabia has set up four special economic zones to attract quality investments. The small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) sector is booming like never before. The industrial sector is also making strides by localizing car manufacturing and establishing the Kingdom’s first electric car factory.

Saudi Arabia is tapping into its vast natural and cultural wealth, revealing mineral resources worth $2.4 trillion last year alone.

The Kingdom is committed to building a green economy to preserve the environment and ensure sustainability, creating a vibrant society. Efforts are also underway to empower the non-profit sector, provide housing solutions for families, and enhance citizens’ skills for global competition.

Looking ahead

Since its launch, Vision 2030 has been committed to sustainable development and planning for the future, aiming to bring prosperity to all citizens.

The 2023 annual report highlights a prosperous year for Saudi Arabia, built on strong foundations for success, including national capabilities, diverse resources, and unlimited investments.

The government’s deep belief in the Kingdom’s potential has driven comprehensive development across various sectors.

Vision 2030 has led to rapid transformations in key and emerging sectors, such as entertainment, sports, tourism, culture, and digital services, alongside social empowerment initiatives.

Some sectors, like mining and renewable energy, require longer reform periods but are making progress through substantial investments.

Efforts to empower the private sector and attract foreign investment involve policy reforms influenced by global factors and challenges.

Today, Saudi Arabia’s economy is diverse and strong, driven by rapidly growing vital sectors, which have led to job creation and exceeded some targets ahead of schedule, making the kingdom a land of opportunity.

Vision 2030 has also boosted Saudi Arabia’s regional and international standing through cooperation for security and stability, vital for economic growth. This ensures the Kingdom’s continued journey towards progress and prosperity.

Stable foundation

The report also highlights Saudi Arabia’s strong economic performance, with non-oil GDP reaching its highest level in 2023, contributing 50% to the real GDP and growing by 4.7% compared to the previous year.

Non-oil government revenues increased significantly to SAR 457 billion ($121.8 billion) in 2023, covering 35% of the total budget expenditure.

Unemployment among Saudis dropped to 7.7% in 2023 from 8.0% in 2022, while inflation decreased to 1.6% from 3.1% in 2022.

The government’s efficiency index also rose to 70.8 points in 2022, surpassing the target of 60.7 points.

Public Investment Fund

Additionally, the report showed a big jump in the assets managed by the Public Investment Fund (PIF), hitting $749 billion in 2023, up from $557 billion in 2016, surpassing the $720 billion target.

The PIF drives economic diversification, investing in sectors like tourism, entertainment, financial tech, and sports.

It has become a global leader in spotting economic opportunities, creating 93 companies compared to 71 last year and generating around 644,000 job opportunities, up from 500,000 in 2022.

Thriving society

The report showed that life expectancy rose to 78.10 years in 2023, surpassing the target of 77.06 years.

Saudi Arabia also saw a record number of external pilgrims, reaching 13.56 million in 2023, up from 7.36 million in 2016, exceeding the target of 10 million.

Furthermore, the percentage of Saudi households owning homes increased to 63.74% in 2023, surpassing the target of 63%.

Remarkable progress

The report showed that halfway through Vision 2030, there has been significant progress towards its goals. Some indicators have even surpassed their targets, prompting a review of ambitions.

For instance, Saudi unemployment rates and female workforce participation have exceeded expectations, signaling a shift to higher aspirations for 2030.

The report also noted a maturing strategic approach in the second phase of Vision 2030, with improved measurement methods. Collaboration with international bodies ensures the adoption of best practices for monitoring progress.

Leading the charge

Saudi Arabia’s statistical sector has made significant strides, jumping 25 places in the World Bank’s National Statistical System Performance Index. This demonstrates the Kingdom’s commitment to providing high-quality statistical data.

Expo 2030 in Riyadh

Winning the bid to host Expo 2030 in Riyadh is a testament to Saudi Arabia’s global influence and active role in shaping the future. The expo will showcase innovations and technologies aligned with sustainable solutions, reflecting the goals of Vision 2030.

The report also highlighted that 2030 will mark an era of unprecedented global engagement.

2026 FIFA World Cup bid

Saudi Arabia has submitted its bid to host the 2034 FIFA World Cup, garnering significant support from football federations worldwide.

The bid marks a pivotal moment in the tournament’s history, as the Kingdom aims to share with the world the story of its ambitious sporting transformation in recent years.

From investing in human potential by empowering youth and unleashing their capabilities to ambitious projects that boost football and infrastructure, Saudi Arabia has embarked on a journey of comprehensive economic and social development.

The nation is committed to developing state-of-the-art sports, tourism, and public facilities on a global scale, driving economic and social growth.

Exceptional tourism achievements

The report highlighted Saudi Arabia’s rich and diverse culture, showcasing its history and stories of civilizations that have thrived on its land. Coupled with its geographical advantage, strategically linking Asia, Europe, and Africa, Saudi Arabia has become a global destination.

Efforts and initiatives under Vision 2030 have capitalized on this competitive advantage, opening doors to both local and international tourists and resulting in an unprecedented boom in the tourism sector.

China has recognized Saudi Arabia as a key tourist destination, with 112 million passengers passing through the Kingdom’s airports, marking a 27% increase from 2022.

Among them, 106 million were visitors, including 27.4 million international tourists, cementing Saudi Arabia’s position as a premier destination on the global tourism map.


Azour to Asharq Al-Awsat: Political Developments Put Pressure on the Region’s Economies

Azour during his talk to Asharq Al-Awsat (Photo: Turki Al-Aqili)
Azour during his talk to Asharq Al-Awsat (Photo: Turki Al-Aqili)
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Azour to Asharq Al-Awsat: Political Developments Put Pressure on the Region’s Economies

Azour during his talk to Asharq Al-Awsat (Photo: Turki Al-Aqili)
Azour during his talk to Asharq Al-Awsat (Photo: Turki Al-Aqili)

The Director of the Middle East and Central Asia office at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Dr. Jihad Azour, said that geopolitical developments are putting pressure on the economies of the countries of the region, pointing to a state of uncertainty that is considered one of the most difficult economically.
Azour urged the countries of the region to continue adopting the policies that have contributed to maintaining low levels of inflation.
On the sidelines of the spring meetings of the IMF and the World Bank Group in Washington, a report was issued on the latest developments in the Middle East and North Africa, in which it expected an uneven recovery among the economies of the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia, in light of the high level of uncertainty that prompted the Fund to lower its growth forecast for the region to 2.7 percent.
In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, a day after the IMF announced the official opening of its regional office in Riyadh, Azour explained that the world is going through a period of major transformations.
He said that despite an improvement in the inflation rates, which recorded significant declines this year, the world is witnessing transformations between the major economic blocs, as many questions are raised over the ability of the Chinese economy to recover and the European economy to regain its health.
But he added: “In general, the economic situation this year was better than expected, in light of the ability to address the inflation problem without affecting the levels of economic progress or recovery.”
Azour stressed that the geopolitical situation has put pressure on the region.
“In fact, we are in a state of uncertainty that is considered one of the most difficult economically... There is no doubt that it has a huge cost on the Palestinian economy, and on neighboring economies such as Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, and Iraq,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.
The IMF regional director continued: “There is an impact on the commercial sector with the significant decline in maritime transport levels and the rising cost with all transport being diverted to other pathways. However, on the oil sector level, the impact was limited, as the fluctuations in the oil markets did not last for a long period and the market is still able to respond to demand.”
For the Gulf countries, improved global demand enhances the ability to continue expanding the volume of investment and the economy, according to Azour.
The measures aimed at economic diversification also contributed to keeping the growth levels of the non-oil sector high, he underlined, warning at the same time of “the very pressing regional element, and the impact of the geopolitical conditions and the war in Gaza on all the economies of the region.”
Inflation
On the other hand, Azour pointed to a positive factor, which is that most countries in the region have been able to address inflation, with the exception of Egypt and Sudan.
“The majority of countries in the region have returned to historical levels of inflation, that is, less than 8 percent. It is expected that inflation levels will continue to decline in 2024 and 2025, and this is a very important economic factor that enhances stability and reduces social burdens,” he remarked.
Excluding Egypt and Sudan, the IMF expects inflation to average 8.8 percent in 2024, and 7.8 percent next year.
“Today we are going through a period of global anticipation regarding the issue of interest rates. The region must continue to adopt the policies it has pursued over the past years, which had a positive impact in maintaining low levels of inflation,” the IMF director stated.
Gulf Countries
According to Azour, the Gulf countries have been able over the past years to diversify their economies, maintaining growth levels for the non-oil sector between 4 percent and 5 percent on average, which “is a good rate if we compare it with global growth levels.”
But he warned about “the challenge of global economic transformations, meaning that this geo-economic transformation with its convulsions has an impact on many countries...”
“These countries are working to be meeting points and economic crossings, and for this reason we must adapt to this situation,” he said.
Saudi Economy
In its April World Economic Outlook report, the IMF raised the expected growth rate for Saudi Arabia to 6%, up from the 5.5% projection issued in January 2024.
Azour explained that the expectations are based on two elements: The first is the oil sector that continues to improve, and the second is the growth rates of the non-oil sector, which are in the range of 4 to 5 percent - a good rate compared to the economies of the region and the world.
Oil prices
Asked about the reasons for the limited impact of the current geopolitical tensions on oil prices, the IMF regional director pointed to several factors, including the level of existing reserves, which contributes to increasing production capacity in the event of unsecured demand, and second, the diversification in transportation mechanisms.
“The war between Russia and Ukraine accelerated the process of developing new transport mechanisms, whether for gas or oil, which contributed to giving greater flexibility in the markets,” he stated, adding: “Last but not least, the way of approaching the geopolitical situation in the oil market has changed, meaning that there is a greater ability to adapt to developments...”


Gold on Track for First Weekly Dip in Six; Focus on US Inflation Data

FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and gold coins of different sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metal dealer Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and gold coins of different sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metal dealer Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
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Gold on Track for First Weekly Dip in Six; Focus on US Inflation Data

FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and gold coins of different sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metal dealer Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and gold coins of different sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metal dealer Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa

Gold inched up on Friday ahead of a key US inflation report, but prices were on track for their first weekly drop in six weeks on easing concerns of a major escalation of the Middle East crisis.
Spot gold rose 0.3% at $2,339.32 per ounce by 0640 GMT. US gold futures rose 0.4% at $2,351.20, Reuters said.
However, for the week, prices were down 2.3%, set for their biggest weekly drop since early December, after a major escalation in the Middle East crisis was avoided. Prices were down nearly $100 from an all-time high of $2,431.29 scaled on April 12.
"Gold suffered a one-off decline on Monday this week and has idled since. Since then, prices have gone broadly nowhere, despite potential cross-currents from yields and the US dollar that might have been more influential in the past," Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive, said.
"It seems like China's reserve accumulation is still the main influence on the market insulating it from broader macro forces."
Data showed that US economic growth slowed more than predicted in the first quarter, but an increase in inflation underlined recent remarks from Federal Reserve members implying the central bank was in no urgency to cut interest rates.
Higher rates reduce the appeal of holding non-yielding gold.
The focus now turns to March's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index data due later on Friday - the Fed's preferred measure of inflation - for further clues on the US rate outlook.
A significant acceleration in the PCE numbers could further breed expectations that we may only see one rate cut from the Fed this year, said IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong.
Spot silver rose 0.7% to $27.61 per ounce, spot platinum rose 1.2% to $925.40 and palladium gained 1.5% to $988.63. All three metals were headed for weekly declines.


Morocco Tenders for 400 MW Wind Farm 

The project comprises a 150 MW wind project in the northern provinces of Fahs Anjra M'diq-Fnideq and a 250 MW wind farm in the provinces of Tangier and Tetouan. 
The project comprises a 150 MW wind project in the northern provinces of Fahs Anjra M'diq-Fnideq and a 250 MW wind farm in the provinces of Tangier and Tetouan. 
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Morocco Tenders for 400 MW Wind Farm 

The project comprises a 150 MW wind project in the northern provinces of Fahs Anjra M'diq-Fnideq and a 250 MW wind farm in the provinces of Tangier and Tetouan. 
The project comprises a 150 MW wind project in the northern provinces of Fahs Anjra M'diq-Fnideq and a 250 MW wind farm in the provinces of Tangier and Tetouan. 

Morocco's renewable energy agency Masen launched a pre-qualification tender on Thursday for a 400-megawatt wind project in the country's north.

The tender for the wind farm, known as Nassim Nord, asks developers to submit pre-qualification bids by June 24 to finance, build and operate the wind park.

The project comprises a 150 MW wind project in the northern provinces of Fahs Anjra M'diq-Fnideq and a 250 MW wind farm in the provinces of Tangier and Tetouan.

Morocco aims for renewables to represent 52% of installed capacity by 2030 from 37.6% now, mostly through investments in solar and wind plants.


World Bank: Middle East Tensions Threaten to Increase Global Inflation

Consumers shopping in a supermarket in the British capital (EPA)
Consumers shopping in a supermarket in the British capital (EPA)
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World Bank: Middle East Tensions Threaten to Increase Global Inflation

Consumers shopping in a supermarket in the British capital (EPA)
Consumers shopping in a supermarket in the British capital (EPA)

Global commodity prices are leveling off after a steep descent that played a decisive role in whittling down overall inflation last year, which could make it harder for central banks to cut interest rates quickly, the World Bank (WB) said in a report on Thursday.
The report also found that a major outbreak of conflict in the Middle East could halt the inflationary decline that has occurred over the past two years.
“Between mid-2022 and mid-2023, global commodity prices plummeted by nearly 40%. This helped to drive most of the roughly 2-percentage-point reduction in global inflation between 2022 and 2023,” according to the WB’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook.
Since mid-2023, however, the WB’s index of commodity prices has remained essentially unchanged.
“Assuming no further flare-up in geopolitical tensions, the Bank’s forecasts call for a decline of 3% in global commodity prices in 2024 and 4% in 2025,” the report showed.
That pace will do little to subdue inflation that remains above central bank targets in most countries. It will keep commodity prices about 38% higher than they were on average in the five years before the COVID-19 pandemic, it added.
“Global inflation remains undefeated,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President.
“A key force for disinflation—falling commodity prices—has essentially hit a wall. That means interest rates could remain higher than currently expected this year and next,” he added, affirming that the world is at a vulnerable moment where a major energy shock could undermine much of the progress in reducing inflation over the past two years.
Meanwhile, persistently high geopolitical tensions over the past two years have propped up the price of oil and many other critical commodities even as global growth has slowed.
The report said the price of Brent crude oil, for example, surged to $91 per barrel earlier this month—nearly $34 per barrel above the 2015-2019 average.
Also, the Bank’s forecasts indicate that Brent prices will average $84 per barrel in 2024 before declining to an average of $79 in 2025, assuming no conflict-related supply disruptions.
“If the conflict in the Middle East were to escalate further, however, oil-supply disruptions could push up global inflation,” the report found.
It said a moderate conflict-related supply disruption could raise the average Brent price this year to $92 per barrel. A more severe disruption could see oil prices surpass $100 per barrel, raising global inflation in 2024 by nearly one percentage point.
“A striking divergence is emerging between global growth and commodity prices: despite relatively weaker global growth, commodity prices will most likely remain higher in 2024-25 than in the half-decade before the COVID-19 pandemic,” said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank Group’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group.
He added,“One critical factor behind this divergence relates to heightened geopolitical tensions that are keeping upward pressure on prices of major commodities and stoking risks of sharp price movements. Central banks must remain alert about the inflationary implications of commodity-price spikes amid elevated geopolitical tensions.”
Meanwhile, the average price of gold—a popular choice for investors seeking “safe haven”—is expected to hit a record in 2024 before moderating slightly in 2025.
Gold holds a special status among assets, often rising in price during periods of geopolitical and policy uncertainty, including conflicts. Strong demand from several developing-country central banks, along with heightened geopolitical challenges, is expected to bolster gold prices throughout 2024.
The report further noted that an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could also drive up prices of natural gas, fertilizers, and food, the report notes.
The region is a crucial gas supplier—20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade transits the Strait of Hormuz. If the LNG supply were interrupted, fertilizer prices would also rise substantially, likely driving up food prices, it said.
The Bank’s baseline forecast, however, is for overall food prices to decline somewhat—by 6% in 2024 and 4% in 2025. Fertilizer prices are expected to fall by 22% in 2024 and 6% in 2025.
The WB report then found that accelerating investment in green technologies has bolstered prices of key metals that are critical for the global clean-energy transition.
It said prices of copper—necessary for electricity-grid infrastructure and electric vehicles—surged to a two-year high this month and they are expected to rise 5% in 2024 before stabilizing in 2025.
Meanwhile, prices of aluminum are forecast to rise by 2% in 2024 and 4% in 2025, bolstered in particular by the production of electric vehicles, solar panels, and other renewable-power infrastructure.

 

 


Türkiye Cenbank Holds Rates at 50% Citing Last Big Hike

A logo of Türkiye's Central Bank is pictured at the entrance of its headquarters in Ankara, Turkey October 15, 2021. REUTERS/Cagla Gurdogan/File Photo
A logo of Türkiye's Central Bank is pictured at the entrance of its headquarters in Ankara, Turkey October 15, 2021. REUTERS/Cagla Gurdogan/File Photo
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Türkiye Cenbank Holds Rates at 50% Citing Last Big Hike

A logo of Türkiye's Central Bank is pictured at the entrance of its headquarters in Ankara, Turkey October 15, 2021. REUTERS/Cagla Gurdogan/File Photo
A logo of Türkiye's Central Bank is pictured at the entrance of its headquarters in Ankara, Turkey October 15, 2021. REUTERS/Cagla Gurdogan/File Photo

Türkiye's central bank kept its main interest rate steady at 50% on Thursday as expected, citing a big tightening in financial conditions since its last hike, and again pledged to tighten policy more if needed in its campaign to cool inflation.

Analysts said the central bank has likely ended its aggressive, nearly year-long tightening cycle.
Last month, it unexpectedly raised its one-week repo rate by 500 basis points, citing a deteriorating inflation outlook and pledging to keep a tight monetary stance.

The annual inflation rate climbed to 68.5% in March and is expected to rise for another few months before easing. The central bank has forecast it will dip to 36% by year-end, a bit lower than market expectations.

"The monetary policy decisions in March have led to a significant tightening in financial conditions," Reuters quoted the bank's policy committee as saying.

"Considering the lagged effects of the monetary tightening, the Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged, but reiterated that it remains highly attentive to inflation risks."

It also reiterated it would tighten again if a "significant and persistent" deterioration in inflation is foreseen, and would maintain a tight stance until a "significant and sustained" drop in underlying trend inflation is seen.

The lira was unchanged at 32.5170 against the dollar after the announcement.

Rate hikes are "on hold once again, with no changes to the rate likely until the fourth quarter 2024", Andrew Birch, economics associate director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a note.

Reuters polling shows the bank was expected to hold rates this week and to leave it at 50% until the fourth quarter when cuts are to begin. Only two of 14 respondents expected a hike.

POLICY U-TURN
A years-long cost-of-living crisis for Turks is expected to begin easing in the second half of the year due to the monetary tightening cycle, which began in June last year with a U-turn toward a more orthodox economic program.
Rates have risen from 8.5% in the cycle, which reversed President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's previous policy of low rates and credit-fueled growth that sparked a series of currency crashes and sent inflation soaring in recent years.

Last month's rate hike came just ahead of nationwide local elections in which Erdogan's ruling AK Party suffered big losses, with voters primarily attributing their discontent to cost-of-living concerns.
The central bank had held rates steady in February.

Separately, the bank said on Thursday it raised interest rates on required reserves involving lira and FX-protected lira deposits, in order to support a transition to lira deposits.


Oil Steady as Market Weighs US Demand Concerns, Mideast Conflict Risks

FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind a crude oil pump jack on a drill pad in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US November 24, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind a crude oil pump jack on a drill pad in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US November 24, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
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Oil Steady as Market Weighs US Demand Concerns, Mideast Conflict Risks

FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind a crude oil pump jack on a drill pad in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US November 24, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind a crude oil pump jack on a drill pad in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US November 24, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo

Oil prices steadied on Thursday after settling lower in the previous day, as signs of retreating fuel demand in the US, the world's biggest oil user, contended with widening conflict risks in the key Middle East producing region.

Brent crude futures inched up 18 cents, or 0.2%, to $88.20 a barrel at 0630 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 13 cents, or 0.2%, to $82.94 a barrel, Reuters reported.

Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that gasoline stockpiles fell less than forecast while distillate stockpiles rose against expectations of a decline, reflecting signs of slowing demand.

The falling fuel demand is occurring amid signs of cooling US business activity in April and as stronger-than-expected inflation and employment data means the US Federal Reserve is more likely to delay expected interest rate cuts, weighing on economic sentiment.

"The current weakness in benchmark prices, after testing above $90 (a barrel) levels, is due to market sentiment refocusing on global economic headwinds over geopolitical tensions," said Emril Jamil, senior oil analyst at LSEG Oil Research.
Geopolitics aside, prices this quarter will be driven by factors including major producer supply cuts, economic data out of China and Eurozone, on top of incremental demand expectations as the Northern Hemisphere heads into summer amid expected tighter supply, said Jamil.

A better indication of the Fed's rate intentions will be seen after US gross domestic product and March personal consumption expenditure data is released on Thursday and Friday.

Meanwhile, fighting in the Gaza Strip between Israel and Hamas is expected to expand as Israel may start an assault on Rafah, in the enclave's south, which may increase the risk of a wider war that could potentially disrupt oil supplies.
However, there have been no other signs of direct conflict between Israel and Hamas-backer Iran, a major oil producer, since last week.
"Tensions between Iran and Israel have eased, but Israeli attacks on Gaza are expected to worsen, and the risk of conflicts spreading to neighboring countries is underpinning oil prices," said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities Co Ltd.
Other EIA data on Wednesday showed that crude stocks slumped by 6.4 million barrels to 453.6 million barrels, compared with expectations in a Reuters poll for an 825,000-barrel rise.


IMF Opens Regional Office in Riyadh to Strengthen Partnership with Middle Eastern Countries

The Saudi Minister of Economy and Planning speaks at the conference organized by the IMF, in cooperation with the Ministry of Finance. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The Saudi Minister of Economy and Planning speaks at the conference organized by the IMF, in cooperation with the Ministry of Finance. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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IMF Opens Regional Office in Riyadh to Strengthen Partnership with Middle Eastern Countries

The Saudi Minister of Economy and Planning speaks at the conference organized by the IMF, in cooperation with the Ministry of Finance. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The Saudi Minister of Economy and Planning speaks at the conference organized by the IMF, in cooperation with the Ministry of Finance. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has inaugurated its regional office in Riyadh with the aim to strengthen partnership with countries in the Middle East and beyond, engage with regional institutions, and improve relations with governments in countries of the region.

In October 2022, Saudi Minister of Finance Mohammed Al-Jadaan, signed with the Fund’s Director General, Kristalina Georgieva, a memorandum of understanding to establish a regional IMF office in the Kingdom.

Wednesday’s inauguration came during the launch of a conference organized by the IMF, in cooperation with the Finance Ministry, under the title, “Industrial Policy to Promote Economic Diversification,” in the presence of Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Al-Ibrahim.

A statement issued by the IMF said that the new office “will scale up capacity building, regional surveillance, and outreach to promote stability, growth, and regional integration. It will strengthen the IMF’s engagement with regional institutions, governments, and other stakeholders.”

“The IMF is grateful for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s financial contribution to boost capacity development to IMF members—including fragile states,” it added.

According to the IMF, the first director of the regional office will be Abdoul Aziz Wane, from Senegal, who is “a seasoned IMF leader with deep knowledge of the institution and a vast network of policymakers and academics across the world.”

Sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the opening of a regional office for the IMF in Saudi Arabia is evidence of the international institution’s recognition of the strength of the Saudi economy on the one hand, and of the position it enjoys regionally and internationally.

Addressing the conference on Wednesday, Al-Ibrahim said Saudi Arabia will witness a shift in economic diversification, pointing to a need to encourage openness to local and global competition in order to ensure that the country’s industry is able to flourish deservedly and as quickly as possible.

Since the launch of an integrated program within Saudi Vision 2030 to reduce dependence on oil and diversify other sources of income, the Kingdom has witnessed fundamental changes in the legislative and political system that have led to transforming the business environment, creating new sectors, and building huge projects such as NEOM and the Red Sea, the minister underlined.

To promote sustainable development in local industries, Al-Ibrahim stated that the focus remains on stimulating local and international competitiveness. He stressed that this exposure to the international market encourages companies to continuously improve and innovate to maintain their competitive advantage.

The IMF conference is held over two days, and aims to review the basic principles of industrial policy and draw lessons from its successes and failures in other regions.


Saudi Trade Balance Records Monthly Surplus of 13% in February

General view of the Saudi capital Riyadh. Reuters file photo
General view of the Saudi capital Riyadh. Reuters file photo
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Saudi Trade Balance Records Monthly Surplus of 13% in February

General view of the Saudi capital Riyadh. Reuters file photo
General view of the Saudi capital Riyadh. Reuters file photo

Data from the Saudi General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT) showed that the trade balance surplus rose by 13 percent, in February, to SAR32 billion ($8.5 billion), compared to SAR28 billion ($7.4 billion) in January, but registered a decrease of 21.8 percent, on an annual basis.

In its monthly International Trade Bulletin, GASTAT said the Kingdom’s merchandise exports declined by 2 percent on an annual basis to SAR95 billion ($25 billion) in February, affected by a drop in oil exports by 3.8 percent.

According to the data, non-oil exports, which include re-exports, rose by 4.4 percent during February, on an annual basis, to SAR21.8 billion ($5.8 billion). In contrast, Saudi imports increased by 12.3 percent on an annual basis during February to SAR63 billion ($16.7 billion).

China ranked first among Saudi export destinations with a rate of 13.2 percent, followed by Japan and India. China also topped the list of suppliers to the Kingdom with a rate of 19.9 percent, followed by the United States and India with rates of 8 percent and 7 percent, respectively.


Saudi Communications, Tech Market Valued at $44 Billion in 2023

The Saudi Communications, Space and Technology Commission building in Riyadh (the Commission’s website)
The Saudi Communications, Space and Technology Commission building in Riyadh (the Commission’s website)
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Saudi Communications, Tech Market Valued at $44 Billion in 2023

The Saudi Communications, Space and Technology Commission building in Riyadh (the Commission’s website)
The Saudi Communications, Space and Technology Commission building in Riyadh (the Commission’s website)

The size of the communications and technology market in Saudi Arabia reached SAR166 billion ($44.2 billion) during 2023, which is equivalent to a compound annual growth of 8 percent over the past six years.

This was revealed by the Communications, Space and Technology Commission on Wednesday during the 10th edition of the ICT Indicators Forum in Riyadh in the presence of an elite group of experts, specialists and sector leaders.

The event featured four main presentations, and a discussion session on the sector’s future trends. Mufarreh Nahari, the Director General of Studies at the Commission, talked about the performance indicators of the communications and technology sector, noting that the Kingdom ranks second among the G20 countries in the 2023 Communications and Technology Development Index.

Indicators also show that the rate of access to mobile communications service subscriptions has reached 198 percent of the population, while the Internet of Things subscriptions amounted to 12.6 million subscriptions.

Another presentation entitled, “Navigating the Frontiers of Innovation: Information Technology Market Trends in the Kingdom,” featured discussions by Hamza Naqshbandi, Vice President of IDC for Custom Solutions in the Middle East, Türkiye and Africa and Regional Director in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, and Group Vice President and Director Jyoti Lalchandani, Regional General Manager for the Middle East, Türkiye and Africa at IDC.

The presentation highlighted the Kingdom’s latest innovative technologies, as spending on technology is expected to reach $18.4 billion in 2024.

A session on “The Future of the Technical Scene in the Kingdom,” examined the future horizon through the insights of market experts, with the participation of Salman Faqih, CEO of Cisco in Saudi Arabia, Fahd Al-Turaif, Vice President of the Cloud Computing Sector for the Saudi, Middle East, and North Africa Markets at Oracle and Othman Al-Hokail, partner at Merak Capital.

The forum also reviewed the “Financial Performance of the Sector in Numbers,” presented by Jassim Al-Jubran, Head of Research Department at Aljazira Capital.

Al-Jubran explained that the size of the assets of companies listed in the communications and technology sector amounts to about SAR250 billion ($66.6 billion), noting that the Kingdom’s market constituted about 37 percent of the total assets in the sector in the Gulf region.