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Rai’s Call for Lebanon’s Neutrality Strains Relations with Hezbollah

Maronite Patriach Beshara al-Rai receives French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian in Bkirki on July 23. (French FM Twitter)
Maronite Patriach Beshara al-Rai receives French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian in Bkirki on July 23. (French FM Twitter)
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Rai’s Call for Lebanon’s Neutrality Strains Relations with Hezbollah

Maronite Patriach Beshara al-Rai receives French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian in Bkirki on July 23. (French FM Twitter)
Maronite Patriach Beshara al-Rai receives French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian in Bkirki on July 23. (French FM Twitter)

The Hezbollah party appears unresponsive to Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rai’s call for Lebanon to remain neutral from regional developments.

A joint committee, formed in the 1990s, comprised of representatives of the Patriarchate and the party usually assumes the role of bridging divides between the two sides. The committee became more active after Rai became patriarch. Prior to that, relations between the Patriarchate and Hezbollah were often strained during the term of his late predecessor Nasrallah Sfeir, who was a vocal critic of the party and its weapons and the Syrian regime.

The committee does not appear to be holding a meeting any time soon even though both parties involved have said that nothing is holding them back. The criticism expressed by Hezbollah supporters on social media of Rai’s call for neutrality, however, tell a different story and may delay the committee meeting even further.

Maronite Bishop Samir Mazloum said the committee may meet at any moment. He told Asharq Al-Awsat there was no reason for it to cease its meetings or dialogue. Contacts with Hezbollah and other sides take place from the Patriarchate’s position of openness to everyone, he went on to say.

Moreover, Rai’s call for neutrality was not directed at Hezbollah, he added. “The suggestion benefits all Lebanese without exception. Rai was seeking rapprochement between parties.”

Information obtained by Asharq Al-Awsat revealed that the committee last met some four months ago. The panel does not have a specific schedule for its talks.

Sources close to Hezbollah said that it used to meet every 15 days, every month or every three months. As of yet, there appears to be no meeting scheduled for the near future, they told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Relations between Hezbollah and Bkirki, the seat of the Maronite Patriarchate, are “generally good”, they stressed, citing visits and communication between the two sides over several issues. “Today, however, we are separating the positive relationship with Bkirki from the proposal on neutrality, which we prefer not comment on,” they stated.

Political analyst and Hezbollah expert Qassem Kassir said the party has taken the decision not to officially comment on Rai’s call. It is seeking greater clarifications about his proposal, which is seen as still vague.

The party has left it to President Michel Aoun, Prime Minister Hassan Diab and its allies, such as MP Gebran Bassil, former minister Suleiman Franjieh and others to comment on the suggestion, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Hezbollah today is more concerned about the living and economic crisis sweeping Lebanon, Kassir remarked. He speculated that party chief Hassan Nasrallah may address the call for neutrality during a speech on August 13 to mark the anniversary of the end of the July 2006 war.

This is not the first time that relations between Rai and Hezbollah become strained. Back in 2014, the party was critical of the patriarch’s decision to travel to Jerusalem to meet with Pope Francis, saying that such a visit may have repercussions. It marked the first time a Maronite patriarch visited Jerusalem since Israel’s formation in 1948.

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Ghalibaf: Iran’s New Strongman Running War Effort

12 October 2024, Lebanon, Beirut: Iranian parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf speaks during a press conference in Beirut. (Hassan Ibrahim/Lebanese Parliament/dpa)
12 October 2024, Lebanon, Beirut: Iranian parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf speaks during a press conference in Beirut. (Hassan Ibrahim/Lebanese Parliament/dpa)
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Ghalibaf: Iran’s New Strongman Running War Effort

12 October 2024, Lebanon, Beirut: Iranian parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf speaks during a press conference in Beirut. (Hassan Ibrahim/Lebanese Parliament/dpa)
12 October 2024, Lebanon, Beirut: Iranian parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf speaks during a press conference in Beirut. (Hassan Ibrahim/Lebanese Parliament/dpa)

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's parliament speaker and a veteran of the Revolutionary Guards, has emerged as the highest-profile political figure in the country after the killing of its leaders.

A pillar of the Iranian establishment for some three decades and one of the regime's most prominent non-clerical figures, Ghalibaf, 64, now appears to be playing a key role spearheading the war effort.

Whereas the son and successor of slain supreme leader Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei, has not appeared in public and has issued just three written statements, Ghalibaf has been unleashing regular posts on X and giving multiple interviews.

"We are in an unequal war, with an asymmetrical set-up, we must do something and use equipment with our own culture, design and creativity," he told Iranian television on Wednesday.

In a post on X, he added that after attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure, "an eye-for-an-eye sum is in effect, and a new level of confrontation has begun".

However, possibly aware of the threat to his own security, he did not, unlike the late Larijani, appear in public at pro-government rallies last week in support of the Palestinian cause.

Larijani was killed in an Israeli air strike on Monday, which followed the killing of Khamenei at the start of the war on February 28.

Ghalibaf's varied experience, which spans military and civilian life, has seen him work as commander of the Revolutionary Guards aerospace corps, Tehran police chief, Tehran mayor and now speaker of parliament.

Known to be fiercely ambitious, he has stood for the Iranian presidency on multiple occasions but has never been successful, most notably in 2005 when the ultra-conservative Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, little-known at the time, took the presidency.

A qualified pilot, Ghalibaf is known for boasting that he is able to captain jumbo jets.

Farzan Sabet, a managing researcher at the Geneva Graduate Institute, said that after Larijani's killing Ghalibaf was the "person likely overseeing the war effort and strategy".

"He's the speaker of parliament, a former senior IRGC commander and has strong cross-factional and institutional ties, positioning him well to move into this role," he told AFP.

- 'Very favorable position' -

Ghalibaf fought in the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War and rose rapidly through the ranks. He reached the upper echelons of the military establishment in the late 1990s when he became commander of the Guards' fledgling aerospace forces.

He was then named national police commander in 1999, against the backdrop of unprecedented student protests.

He has long coveted the presidency, running in 2005, 2013 and 2024, and briefly entering the 2017 race before withdrawing in favor of another conservative candidate. His strongest showing came in 2013, when he finished second.

After the 2005 presidential election loss, he was elected mayor of Tehran.

During his 12 years as mayor, supporters praised his technocratic approach and focus on urban management, while critics pointed to allegations of financial corruption.

Human rights groups have accused Ghalibaf, in his various functions, of playing a key role in suppressing protests, from the 1999 student demonstrations through to the 2009 Green movement that erupted after a disputed election right up to the nationwide protests that peaked in January 2026.

Ghalibaf was elected speaker of parliament in 2020, at times advocating economic reforms and stronger parliamentary oversight while remaining aligned with the Islamic republic's core institutions.

"Iran's strongest man is now probably Ghalibaf," said Arash Azizi, lecturer at Yale University, describing him as "a rare figure whose portfolio crosses between military, security and political functions of the regime".

"He is known to be running the war effort now," Azizi said, adding that Ghalibaf appeared to be an ally of Mojtaba Khamenei.

"He seems to be in a very favorable position now."

Ghalibaf has predicted the war would reshape the Middle East, but not on Washington's terms.

"The order here will change, but it will not be an order in which the will of the United States prevails," he said in a recorded video interview carried by Tasnim news agency and other media.

Features

As Israel Expands Strikes on Beirut, Delivery Drivers Steer Clear of Danger

People who work as delivery drivers for the Toters delivery app stand outside a delivery center in Beirut, Lebanon, March 18, 2026. (Reuters)
People who work as delivery drivers for the Toters delivery app stand outside a delivery center in Beirut, Lebanon, March 18, 2026. (Reuters)
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As Israel Expands Strikes on Beirut, Delivery Drivers Steer Clear of Danger

People who work as delivery drivers for the Toters delivery app stand outside a delivery center in Beirut, Lebanon, March 18, 2026. (Reuters)
People who work as delivery drivers for the Toters delivery app stand outside a delivery center in Beirut, Lebanon, March 18, 2026. (Reuters)

Lebanese food courier Hamza Hareb now keeps his distance if he spots a car with tinted windows while on a delivery run in Beirut. Hezbollah is rumored to use such cars, and Hareb wants to steer clear of any Israeli strikes targeting the armed group.

Israel has expanded its air campaign to new parts of Beirut in recent days, hitting apartments and downing entire buildings in strikes it says are targeting Hezbollah, which pulled Lebanon into the regional war on March 2 by firing into Israeli territory.

On Wednesday, Israel struck different neighborhoods in the heart of Beirut, leaving mounds of rubble hundreds of meters away from government buildings, restaurants and roads usually clogged with traffic.

As residents of the capital stay home in fear, they are ordering delivery for dinner - and drivers like Hareb are navigating a maze ‌of risks to ‌make it happen.

"Of course, we are afraid. That is ever-present," said Hareb, one ‌of ⁠3,000 couriers in ⁠Beirut who work for Toters, among Lebanon's most popular delivery apps.

Like most gig workers, Toters drivers are paid per delivery. For many, the job is an economic lifeline in the heavily indebted country, which is suffering from years of economic crisis and political instability following a financial collapse in 2019.

"You don't know when the strikes will come, so we have adapted to everything," Hareb said.

'NAVIGATING INTO UNCERTAINTY'

Israel sometimes issues evacuation warnings before striking, telling residents to leave the area. But three of Wednesday's four strikes on Beirut came without notice.

"Right now they're increasingly ⁠striking without warning, and of course this is instilling a sense of ‌fear among us (since) we spend most of our time out ‌in the street," Hareb told Reuters.

If Beirut is rocked by an unexpected strike, drivers pull over to figure out which ‌neighborhood was targeted and how to amend their routes if needed. If an evacuation warning is issued, ‌drivers pass it on through work channels so colleagues can avoid targeted areas.

Toters' director of operations Roland Ghanem said the company did not deliver to neighborhoods that fall within Israel's evacuation orders and has barred drivers from using risky roads near possible targets.

"These drivers navigate into uncertainty... just to make sure that others can still have access to food ‌and basic needs," Ghanem said. "They understand that behind every order, there is a family that has been displaced, or an elderly person that cannot go to ⁠the store and get ⁠some food, or just a regular person trying to get through the day."

WORKING IN A WAR

Israeli strikes have killed nearly 1,000 people and displaced another million across Lebanon, according to Lebanese authorities.

For some drivers, the war has hit close to home - literally. Mahmoud al-Benne, 34, had to flee his home in Beirut's southern suburbs earlier this month when Israel issued a blanket evacuation order for the entire area and began bombing it heavily.

But he still needs to work.

"Whether you are displaced or not displaced, you need to earn money," Benne said. "You have responsibilities. We are in a state of war, but at the end of the day we want to work."

Marie Katanjian stands out among her colleagues as a rare female delivery driver. Her husband delivers for Toters and she was inspired to do the same.

"We have to work in this situation because we have families. We're helping each other out, hand in hand," she said.

Still, she's yearning to drive safely through her city's streets again.

“We want the war to end, so we can take a breath.”

Features

What Remains of Hezbollah’s Military Arsenal?

Damage after a rocket fired by Hezbollah toward Nahariya (Reuters)
Damage after a rocket fired by Hezbollah toward Nahariya (Reuters)
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What Remains of Hezbollah’s Military Arsenal?

Damage after a rocket fired by Hezbollah toward Nahariya (Reuters)
Damage after a rocket fired by Hezbollah toward Nahariya (Reuters)

The rockets that Hezbollah continues to fire, since its decision to join what it calls a support war for Iran, have surprised observers with their intensity and type, particularly in Israel.

Israeli media have expressed astonishment that the group still retains such military capabilities, despite the ongoing war against it since September 2023.

Previous Israeli assessments suggested that a large part of Hezbollah’s arsenal had been eroded during the last war and the bombardment campaigns that followed, which continued for 15 months against its depots and positions.

However, the pace of launches since the start of the new round of fighting has raised serious questions about the actual size of this arsenal, its sources, how it has been preserved, where the remaining stockpiles are located, and how they are managed and used under these complex conditions.

This comes as the Lebanese army had also seized a considerable portion of these weapons in the area south of the Litani River.

Questions also extend beyond the military stockpile to Hezbollah’s ability to fill leadership vacancies after assassination operations that targeted hundreds of its commanders and fighters, and how large numbers of these fighters have been able to reach and take part in ground combat in border villages and towns.

Secret storage sites

Most military experts believe these fighters have not left their towns and villages during this period, keeping their weapons in private facilities that have not been raided.

Riad Kahwaji, a researcher and writer on security and defense affairs, said Israeli estimates indicate that between 50% and 70% of Hezbollah’s arsenal was destroyed during the previous war and subsequent operations over the past 15 months.

He added that if the group possessed around 100,000 rockets, as prevailing narratives claim, then even if 70% were eliminated, about 30,000 would remain, which is not a small number.

He added that the arsenal in the Bekaa Valley has not yet been used.

On the locations of the rockets and storage sites, Kahwaji told Asharq Al-Awsat that Israel had often destroyed the entrances to some tunnels, whether in the south or along the eastern mountain range, but had not been able to destroy them entirely, meaning their contents likely remain intact.

This, he said, explains talk of intentions to reach these tunnels through ground operations to seize them.

Kahwaji also said Hezbollah had not cooperated with the Lebanese army, either south or north of the Litani River. As a result, most army raids targeted sites identified by Israel and the mechanism committee, meaning many other locations remain untouched.

He added that Hezbollah fighters had not left south of the Litani and remained with their weapons in private facilities that the Lebanese army had refused to enter, which had long cast doubt on claims that the area had been fully cleared. Recent developments, he said, showed that this was not the case.

Kahwaji added that Hezbollah also has facilities for manufacturing Katyusha and Grad rockets and assembling drones. He noted that most of the rockets fired recently belong to these types, which the group possesses in large quantities.

By contrast, the number of long-range missiles in its possession is limited, although some have been fired as far as 150 km into Israel. He also pointed to smuggling operations that had taken place via Syria to bolster its arsenal with guided missiles such as the Kornet.

Tunnels and underground centers

Retired Brig. Gen. Khalil Helou, a lecturer in geopolitics, said it was not surprising that Hezbollah still possesses such an arsenal and capabilities despite what it has faced over the past two years and the closure of the Syrian border.

He noted that from 2006 to 2023, over 17 years, Hezbollah had dug tunnels and underground facilities and stockpiled weapons arriving from Iran via Damascus and Aleppo airports, before being transported by land into Lebanon around the clock.

Israel, he said, had been unable to effectively target these supply lines over the years, intercepting only about 50%, according to Israeli sources.

Helou told Asharq Al-Awsat that Hezbollah had made extensive preparations at all levels, not only in terms of weapons, but also logistically and medically.

Although Israel destroyed a large portion of these weapons and facilities during the last war, and supply lines through Syria have since been cut, some capabilities remain intact.

He added that while the Lebanese army in the south had raided sites it was able to identify, other locations likely remain undiscovered.

He said rockets currently being fired are launched either from the Bekaa Valley or areas north of the Litani River, as battlefield developments indicate that much of the area south of the Litani was in fact largely devoid of weapons.