Rai’s Call for Lebanon’s Neutrality Strains Relations with Hezbollah

Maronite Patriach Beshara al-Rai receives French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian in Bkirki on July 23. (French FM Twitter)
Maronite Patriach Beshara al-Rai receives French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian in Bkirki on July 23. (French FM Twitter)
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Rai’s Call for Lebanon’s Neutrality Strains Relations with Hezbollah

Maronite Patriach Beshara al-Rai receives French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian in Bkirki on July 23. (French FM Twitter)
Maronite Patriach Beshara al-Rai receives French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian in Bkirki on July 23. (French FM Twitter)

The Hezbollah party appears unresponsive to Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rai’s call for Lebanon to remain neutral from regional developments.

A joint committee, formed in the 1990s, comprised of representatives of the Patriarchate and the party usually assumes the role of bridging divides between the two sides. The committee became more active after Rai became patriarch. Prior to that, relations between the Patriarchate and Hezbollah were often strained during the term of his late predecessor Nasrallah Sfeir, who was a vocal critic of the party and its weapons and the Syrian regime.

The committee does not appear to be holding a meeting any time soon even though both parties involved have said that nothing is holding them back. The criticism expressed by Hezbollah supporters on social media of Rai’s call for neutrality, however, tell a different story and may delay the committee meeting even further.

Maronite Bishop Samir Mazloum said the committee may meet at any moment. He told Asharq Al-Awsat there was no reason for it to cease its meetings or dialogue. Contacts with Hezbollah and other sides take place from the Patriarchate’s position of openness to everyone, he went on to say.

Moreover, Rai’s call for neutrality was not directed at Hezbollah, he added. “The suggestion benefits all Lebanese without exception. Rai was seeking rapprochement between parties.”

Information obtained by Asharq Al-Awsat revealed that the committee last met some four months ago. The panel does not have a specific schedule for its talks.

Sources close to Hezbollah said that it used to meet every 15 days, every month or every three months. As of yet, there appears to be no meeting scheduled for the near future, they told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Relations between Hezbollah and Bkirki, the seat of the Maronite Patriarchate, are “generally good”, they stressed, citing visits and communication between the two sides over several issues. “Today, however, we are separating the positive relationship with Bkirki from the proposal on neutrality, which we prefer not comment on,” they stated.

Political analyst and Hezbollah expert Qassem Kassir said the party has taken the decision not to officially comment on Rai’s call. It is seeking greater clarifications about his proposal, which is seen as still vague.

The party has left it to President Michel Aoun, Prime Minister Hassan Diab and its allies, such as MP Gebran Bassil, former minister Suleiman Franjieh and others to comment on the suggestion, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Hezbollah today is more concerned about the living and economic crisis sweeping Lebanon, Kassir remarked. He speculated that party chief Hassan Nasrallah may address the call for neutrality during a speech on August 13 to mark the anniversary of the end of the July 2006 war.

This is not the first time that relations between Rai and Hezbollah become strained. Back in 2014, the party was critical of the patriarch’s decision to travel to Jerusalem to meet with Pope Francis, saying that such a visit may have repercussions. It marked the first time a Maronite patriarch visited Jerusalem since Israel’s formation in 1948.



By the Numbers: US Thrashed Military Targets in Iran, but Some Capabilities Remain

 Government supporters walk past a billboard depicting Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei as they gather to mark the 40th day since the killing of his father, slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in Tehran, Iran, Thursday, April 9, 2026. (AP)
Government supporters walk past a billboard depicting Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei as they gather to mark the 40th day since the killing of his father, slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in Tehran, Iran, Thursday, April 9, 2026. (AP)
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By the Numbers: US Thrashed Military Targets in Iran, but Some Capabilities Remain

 Government supporters walk past a billboard depicting Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei as they gather to mark the 40th day since the killing of his father, slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in Tehran, Iran, Thursday, April 9, 2026. (AP)
Government supporters walk past a billboard depicting Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei as they gather to mark the 40th day since the killing of his father, slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in Tehran, Iran, Thursday, April 9, 2026. (AP)

Since the ceasefire between Iran and the US was announced, leaders in President Donald Trump's administration have been quick to say Iranian military and arms capacity have been all but wiped out during weeks of fighting.

But there is also an acknowledgment that Tehran retains some capabilities, whether to strike back or defend itself.

Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, this week said the US military has hit more than 13,000 targets. He listed high percentages for attacks or destruction to Iran's air defenses, navy and weapons factories.

However, the totals stop short of Iran's military capabilities being “decimated” as the Republican president has asserted.

Independent data from Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, a US-based group that tracks conflicts around the world, shows Iranian strikes persisted at a relatively steady and uninterrupted pace since the war began Feb. 28 through Wednesday.

Here's a look at what the US says has been targeted, has been degraded or remains from Iran, by the numbers:

About 80% of Iran's air defense systems 'destroyed'

Caine told reporters Wednesday at the Pentagon that the US has struck more than 1,500 air defense targets, more than 450 ballistic missile storage facilities and 800 one-way attack drone storage facilities. He said, “All of these systems are gone.”

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth similarly claimed that “Iran no longer has an air defense” and that “we own their skies” before conceding soon afterward that Iran “can still shoot — we know that.”

Hegseth later elaborated, saying that while the Iranians may “have a system here or there,” they no longer had an air defense “system that's capable of defending their skies.”

Neither Caine nor Hegseth said what the remaining 20% of Iran's air defenses looked like or which parts of the country have the ability to carry out the sporadic fire they described.

Caine offered no new details about what kind of weapon the Iranians used to shoot down a US F-15E Strike Eagle last week. It was the first time an American military jet was shot down during the war, showing Tehran's continued ability to hit back despite assertions from the Trump administration.

Trump described it on Monday as a “handheld shoulder missile, heat-seeking missile.”

More than 90% of Iran's regular Navy fleet 'sunk'

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Wednesday that the Iranian navy was “completely annihilated.”

While 150 Iranian ships “are at the bottom of the ocean,” Caine said, only half the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard's small attack boats — ships the government used to swarm and harass warships and merchants in the Strait of Hormuz — have been sunk.

Caine also said that after more than 700 strikes, the military believed it has destroyed more than 95% of Iran's naval mines.

Since the US has not said how large Iran's stockpile was before the war, it's unknown how many naval mines make up the remaining 5%. Semiofficial news agencies in Iran published a chart Thursday suggesting the Revolutionary Guard put sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial trade route for oil, during the war.

The message is likely designed to be a pressure tactic as Iran, Israel and the United States head into negotiations this weekend in Pakistan. Independent analysts say they have seen no change in merchant traffic through the strait since the tenuous ceasefire began this week.

About 90% of Iran's weapons factories 'attacked'

Caine said Wednesday that the military “destroyed Iran's defense industrial base” while pointing to the fact that the US and allies attacked “approximately 90% of their weapons factories.”

He also said, “nearly 80% of Iran's nuclear industrial base was hit, further degrading their attempts to attain a nuclear weapon.”

While he noted that Iran was no longer able to produce certain components like solid rocket motors, he stopped short of saying that Iran could not eventually rebuild or get weapons in other ways or that the factories attacked had actually been destroyed or rendered unusable.

Trump acknowledged this possibility when he warned countries against arming Iran.

“A Country supplying Military Weapons to Iran will be immediately tariffed, on any and all goods sold to the United States of America, 50%, effective immediately,” Trump said in a social media post on Wednesday.

More than 90% interception rate in Israel

Meanwhile, Israel's military pointed to how many drones or missiles it has been able to stop from landing. It said it had an interception rate of more than 90% through its aerial defense systems.

Over the decades, Israel has developed a sophisticated system capable of detecting incoming fire and deploying only if a projectile is headed toward a population center or sensitive military or civilian infrastructure.

Israeli leaders say the system isn't 100% guaranteed but credit it with preventing serious damage and countless casualties.


Five Things to Know about the US-Iran Talks in Islamabad

A man rides a motorcycle past the President house as Pakistan gears up to host the US and Iran for peace talks, in Islamabad, Pakistan, April 9, 2026. REUTERS/Waseem Khan
A man rides a motorcycle past the President house as Pakistan gears up to host the US and Iran for peace talks, in Islamabad, Pakistan, April 9, 2026. REUTERS/Waseem Khan
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Five Things to Know about the US-Iran Talks in Islamabad

A man rides a motorcycle past the President house as Pakistan gears up to host the US and Iran for peace talks, in Islamabad, Pakistan, April 9, 2026. REUTERS/Waseem Khan
A man rides a motorcycle past the President house as Pakistan gears up to host the US and Iran for peace talks, in Islamabad, Pakistan, April 9, 2026. REUTERS/Waseem Khan

The United States and Iran are holding their highest-level talks in years in Islamabad in a Pakistan-brokered bid to turn a fragile two-week ceasefire into a lasting end to a war that has roiled global energy markets.

Here are five things to know about the Islamabad talks:

- The war behind the talks -

On February 28, the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and struck Iran's military and nuclear infrastructure, killing more than 2,000 people in five weeks.

Tehran responded by effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of global oil and gas passes, sending energy prices soaring and disrupting trade worldwide.

On April 8, the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan. Iran's Supreme National Security Council said the talks could continue for up to 15 days. The ceasefire is expected to expire April 22.

- Pakistan's unlikely starring role -

Pakistan is hosting the first negotiations between Washington and Tehran since the war began, a stunning pivot for a country long viewed through the lens of deep security concerns.

The country does not typically host talks of this scale.

Pakistan's value as mediator rests on an unusually broad diplomatic network.

Iran was the first country to recognize Pakistan following independence in 1947, with the two neighbors sharing a 900-kilometer (560-mile) border and deep historical, cultural and religious ties. Pakistan is also home to over 20 million Shia Muslims: the second-largest such population in the world after Iran.

At the same time, Islamabad has cultivated strong ties with Washington, Riyadh and Beijing.

Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar visited Beijing at the end of March for talks with Wang Yi, who backed Islamabad's mediation efforts as "in keeping with the common interests of all parties".

Trump himself told AFP that China helped bring Iran to the negotiating table, an account backed by Pakistani officials.

"On ceasefire night, hopes were fading, but China stepped in and convinced Iran to agree to a preliminary ceasefire," a senior Pakistani official familiar with the negotiations told AFP on condition of anonymity.

"While our efforts were central, we were falling short of a breakthrough, which was ultimately achieved after Beijing persuaded the Iranians."

- What's on the table? -

The gap between the two sides remains vast.

Washington's reported 15-point proposal centers on Iran's enriched uranium, ballistic missiles, sanctions relief and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has countered with a 10-point plan demanding control over the strait, a toll for vessels crossing the strait, an end to all regional military operations and the lifting of all sanctions.

Lebanon is also a major sticking point. Israel continued its strikes in the country targeting Hezbollah -- after the ceasefire came into force -- with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejecting Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's assertion that the truce included Lebanon.

US Vice President JD Vance appeared to take a softer tone, saying there may have been a "legitimate misunderstanding" from Iran that Lebanon would be included.

Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian warned on X that Israel's strikes on Lebanon rendered the negotiations "meaningless". "Our hands remain on the trigger. Iran will never forsake its Lebanese brothers and sisters.

- Who are the negotiators? -

Vance will lead the American team, joined by special envoy Steve Witkoff and presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner.

It marks the most senior US engagement with Iran since Secretary of State John Kerry negotiated the 2015 nuclear deal. Witkoff held multiple rounds of Oman-mediated talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi before the war cut the process short.

Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Araghchi are expected to lead the Iranian delegation.

Ghalibaf is a former IRGC commander, and it remains unclear whether any active IRGC representative will attend.

- Islamabad on lockdown -

The talks are being held in the Pakistani capital Islamabad.

The government has kept its cards close to its chest, without confirming the venue. Pakistan's leader Sharif had said the talks would take place on Friday, while the White House said the first round would begin on Saturday.

The Serena Hotel, located next to the foreign ministry in the capital's high-security Red Zone, asked its guests to clear out on Wednesday, and that same day authorities in the capital announced a two-day public holiday on Thursday and Friday.

The talks themselves are expected to be indirect: the two delegations sitting in separate rooms with Pakistani officials shuttling proposals between them, mirroring the format used in earlier Oman-mediated rounds.

Outside, the streets of Islamabad are flooded with armed security personnel in military fatigues, traffic diversions and police checkpoints. The capital, already a quiet city, was even quieter on Friday.


Gaza Marks 6 Months of a Ceasefire That May Offer Lessons for the Iran War

 Palestinian youths look on as they stand in an area next to tents at a makeshift camp for displaced people, at sunset in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Thursday, April 9, 2026. (AP)
Palestinian youths look on as they stand in an area next to tents at a makeshift camp for displaced people, at sunset in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Thursday, April 9, 2026. (AP)
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Gaza Marks 6 Months of a Ceasefire That May Offer Lessons for the Iran War

 Palestinian youths look on as they stand in an area next to tents at a makeshift camp for displaced people, at sunset in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Thursday, April 9, 2026. (AP)
Palestinian youths look on as they stand in an area next to tents at a makeshift camp for displaced people, at sunset in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Thursday, April 9, 2026. (AP)

Friday marks six months since Gaza's ceasefire deal took effect, a milestone largely lost in the confusion over the new and even more fragile ceasefire in the Iran war.

The ravaged Palestinian territory of 2 million people has seen the most intense fighting stop between Israeli forces and Hamas-led fighters. But most of the ceasefire work remains to be done, from disarming Hamas and ending its two-decade rule to deploying an international stabilization force and beginning vast reconstruction. Gaza residents are in limbo, with limited aid entering through a single, Israeli-controlled border post.

Such challenges could represent what’s to come in the latest war, as US President Donald Trump’s approach to peacemaking appears to be stopping bombardment and leaving the bigger picture for others to work out.

Whether Trump can force through that kind of deal on Iran, with more actors in play and global markets quivering at every statement, is yet to be seen.

The Board of Peace goes quiet

Focusing on a deal's details is crucial. Already the Iran war's two-week ceasefire has created deadly confusion over Lebanon as Israel insists the deal doesn’t apply there and continues to attack the Iranian-backed Hezbollah, while Iran insists it does and threatens to upend the agreement. Israel made a surprise announcement Thursday authorizing direct negotiations with Lebanon, despite the lack of diplomatic ties.

Not long ago, the US-created and Trump-led Board of Peace kicked off with $7 billion in pledges and sweeping intentions of resolving not only Gaza but other conflicts that emerge around the world.

Nine days after the board's initial meeting, the US and Israel attacked Iran.

The Board of Peace has not met again, and it's still waiting for Hamas to respond to its proposal on disarming, a major concession and perhaps the hardest step. Hamas’ founding charter calls for armed resistance against Israel.

A US official said Hamas has not been given a definite deadline to respond to the proposal but added that "patience is not unlimited." The official was not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.

The lack of a deadline can weaken pressure to act. Meanwhile, diplomacy is busy putting out different flames.

Board of Peace director Nickolay Mladenov told the UN Security Council last month that the world should not lose sight of Gaza as a new war flared. The choice in Gaza is between "a renewed war, or a new beginning; the status quo, or a better future," he added. "There is no third option."

‘It’s as if there’s no ceasefire at all’

Palestinians might suggest a third option: neglect.

Six months into the Gaza ceasefire that took effect on Oct. 10, little beyond the largely silenced explosions has changed.

Vast tent camps house most of the territory’s population. Other residents shelter in damaged apartment buildings. Health workers and other humanitarian workers say there has been little progress in the expected surge of medical supplies and other aid.

The US 20-point ceasefire plan for Gaza is largely failing on the humanitarian front, five international aid groups said in a scorecard released Thursday. They said conditions have deteriorated further in Gaza since the Iran war began.

"During the first two weeks of March 2026, trucks entering Gaza declined by 80%, and the price of basic goods increased dramatically," they said. Medical evacuations have stalled.

Palestinians expressed fading hopes for any immediate improvement in their lives.

"There is pollution and disease. It’s as if there’s no ceasefire at all," said Maysa Abu Jedian, a displaced woman from Beit Lahiya.

"The war is still ongoing and life is still terrible as it is," said Eyad Abu Dagga, also sheltering in a camp in Khan Younis.

Tents rippled in the breeze, and children played on the sand against a backdrop of shattered buildings.

While the heaviest fighting has subsided, Israeli forces have carried out airstrikes and fired on Palestinians near military-held zones. Militants have carried out shooting attacks on troops, and Israel has said its strikes are in response to that and other ceasefire violations.

As of Thursday, Israeli attacks have killed 738 people in the six months since the ceasefire, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. The ministry, part of the Hamas-led government, maintains detailed casualty records that are seen as generally reliable by UN agencies and independent experts. It does not give a breakdown of civilians and militants.

Overall, the ministry says 72,317 Palestinians had been killed since the war in Gaza began with the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on Israel.

‘Sustained diplomatic pressure at the highest levels’

Unwavering focus on Gaza, once at the heart of a passionate international outcry, has been lost with the rise of a new regional war. That, too, has decreased pressure for progress on the ceasefire.

The humanitarian groups' scorecard notes that any forward movement on aid issues in the Palestinian territory has "generally required sustained diplomatic pressure at the highest levels, particularly from the United States. That pressure, however, has not been applied consistently or at the scale needed to secure full implementation."

The Trump administration is not the only player to be distracted. The entire Middle East, including key Gaza mediators Egypt and Qatar, now focuses on Iran and that war’s effects on their economies.

With the added uncertainty over Israel’s renewed war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, there could be even less interest from countries to contribute troops to a Gaza stabilization force. One of the few confirmed troop contributors, Indonesia, already has seen three of its peacekeepers in southern Lebanon killed in recent days.