'End of the World': Massive, Self-Inflicted 'Bomb' in Beirut

In this Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2020 file photo, people evacuate the wounded after a massive explosion in Beirut, Lebanon. It was 20 minutes before 6:08 p.m. when the Beirut fire brigade received the call from an employee at the nearby port reporting a big fire. Ten firefighters, including a female paramedic, piled into a fire engine and an ambulance and raced toward the scene, and their ultimate death. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar, File)
In this Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2020 file photo, people evacuate the wounded after a massive explosion in Beirut, Lebanon. It was 20 minutes before 6:08 p.m. when the Beirut fire brigade received the call from an employee at the nearby port reporting a big fire. Ten firefighters, including a female paramedic, piled into a fire engine and an ambulance and raced toward the scene, and their ultimate death. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar, File)
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'End of the World': Massive, Self-Inflicted 'Bomb' in Beirut

In this Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2020 file photo, people evacuate the wounded after a massive explosion in Beirut, Lebanon. It was 20 minutes before 6:08 p.m. when the Beirut fire brigade received the call from an employee at the nearby port reporting a big fire. Ten firefighters, including a female paramedic, piled into a fire engine and an ambulance and raced toward the scene, and their ultimate death. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar, File)
In this Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2020 file photo, people evacuate the wounded after a massive explosion in Beirut, Lebanon. It was 20 minutes before 6:08 p.m. when the Beirut fire brigade received the call from an employee at the nearby port reporting a big fire. Ten firefighters, including a female paramedic, piled into a fire engine and an ambulance and raced toward the scene, and their ultimate death. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar, File)

The 10 firefighters who received the call shortly before 6 p.m. - about a big fire at the nearby port of Beirut - could not know what awaited them.

The brigade of nine men and one woman could not know about the stockpile of ammonium nitrate warehoused since 2013 along a busy motorway, in the heart of a densely populated residential area - a danger that had only grown with every passing year.

They and nearly all the population of Beirut were simply unaware. They were not privy to the warnings authorities had received, again and again, and ignored: ammonium nitrate is highly explosive, used in fertilizer and sometimes to build bombs. The stockpile was degrading; something must be done.

They knew, of course, that they lived in a dysfunctional country, its government rife with corruption, factionalism and negligence that caused so much pain and heartbreak. But they could not know that it would lead to the worst single-day catastrophe in Lebanon´s tragic history.

Across the city, residents who noticed the grey smoke billowing over the facility were drawn to streets, balconies and windows, watching curiously as the fire grew larger. Phones were pulled out of pockets and pointed toward the flames.

The firefighters piled into a fire engine and an ambulance and raced to the scene - and to their doom.

Seven years ago, a ship named the Rhosus set out from the Georgian Black Sea port of Batumi carrying 2,755.5 tons of ammonium nitrate destined for an explosives company in Mozambique.

It made an unscheduled detour, stopping in Beirut on Nov. 19, 2013. The ship´s Russian owner said he struggled with debts and hoped to earn extra cash by taking on pieces of heavy machinery in Lebanon. That additional cargo proved too heavy for the Rhosus and the crew refused to take it on.

The Rhosus was soon impounded by Lebanese authorities for failing to pay port fees. It never left the port; it sank there in February 2018, according to Lebanese official documents.

The Port of Beirut is considered one of the most corrupt institutions in a country where nearly every public institution is riddled with corruption. Port officials are notorious for taking bribes. A bribe from an importer, for example, will ensure an incoming shipment is mislabeled to get lower customs duties - or escapes duties and taxes completely. Confiscated goods are sometimes sold off on the sly for a profit.

For years, Lebanon´s ruling political factions have divvied up positions at the port and handed them out to supporters - as they have ministries, public companies and other facilities nationwide.

The longtime head of customs is known to be a loyalist of President Michel Aoun, for example, while the head of the port is in the camp of Saad Hariri, the Sunni leader who has repeatedly served as prime minister. The Hezbollah militant group and, even more, its Shiite ally the Amal faction headed by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, also have loyalists at the port, though Hezbollah doesn´t have the same influence as it does at, for example, the airport, which it controls and uses to ferry in cash from Iran.

The result is a port divided into factional fiefdoms that don´t necessarily work together and are sometimes outright rivals. Individual port authorities are sometimes more concerned with their scams than with proper functioning. And government officials avoid looking too closely at goings-on at the port to protect their loyalists.

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The first known warning came on Feb. 21, 2014, three months after the ship docked at the port.

In a letter to the customs authority´s anti-smuggling department, senior customs official Col. Joseph Skaff wrote that the material on board was "extremely dangerous and endangers public safety."

It is not known if Skaff ever received a response or if he sent other letters. He was found dead outside his house near Beirut under mysterious circumstances, shortly after he retired in March 2017. At least one medical report suggested he might have been murdered.

Skaff´s son, Michel, said he was killed by a blow to the head. He said his father dealt with other sensitive matters, including drug trafficking. "Someone maybe was trying to hide what is happening at the port," he said by telephone from his home in New York City.

In the years that followed, Skaff´s letter was followed by other correspondence that went back and forth between top customs and port officials and members of the judiciary and the army.

On June 27, 2014, with the ammonium nitrate still aboard the Rhosus, Jad Maalouf, a judge for urgent matters, warned the Ministry of Public Works and Transportation in correspondence that the ship was carrying dangerous material and could sink. He said the ministry should deal with the ship, remove the ammonium nitrate and "place it in a suitable place that it (the ministry) chooses, and it should be under its protection."

It is not clear if there was ever a reply. Ministry officials did not respond to requests from The Associated Press asking for comment.

In October 2014, the ammonium nitrate was moved into the port´s Warehouse 12, which holds impounded materials.

A chemical forensic expert, commissioned by the courts and the owners of the ammonium nitrate, got a look at the stockpile soon after. It was "in terrible shape," she said in her February 2015 report. Most of the sacks - she estimated more than 1,900 of the 2,750 sacks- were torn open, their contents spilling out. Some of the crystals had darkened, a sign of decomposition. The sacks were piled so haphazardly that she could not count them to be sure all were still there.

The inspector recommended the chemicals be disposed of according to environmental guidelines. Her report was uncovered by Riad Kobaissi, an investigative reporter with Al Jadeed TV who has followed corruption at the port and within the customs authorities since 2012.

On Oct. 26, 2015, the army command asked customs to sample the material and check the level of nitrogen "and based on that we can give a suggestion regarding them."

The then-head of the customs department, Shafeeq Merhi, wrote back in February 2016, saying an expert found the nitrogen level was 34.7%, a very high and dangerous level, well above the acceptable concentration of around 11%.

The army command responded the following April, saying it didn´t need the ammonium nitrate. It asked customs to contact Lebanese Explosives Co. - a maker of explosives for construction of roads and tunnels and for imploding structures - to see if that private company could use it.

If not, the material should be exported at the expense of the ship owner who brought it to Lebanon, the army said in its letter.

An administrator at Lebanese Explosives told the AP that it was "not interested in buying confiscated material because we did not know where they were brought from, what is the quality nor its expiry."

Merhi and his successor as customs chief, Badri Daher, sent multiple letters in the following years to the Courts of Urgent Matters, warning of the danger and seeking permission to sell the material or a ruling on another way to get rid of it.

Daher told the AP and other media that he never received any reply from the court. But Kobaissi, the investigative reporter, found documents showing the court responded each time that it didn´t have jurisdiction and that the Public Works Ministry had to decide.

Over the years, Lebanese built and bought luxury property opposite the port, a nearby Beirut Marina including restaurants, cafes and retail shops was built up, concerts were held, children rode their bicycles and workers went about their daily business, oblivious to the massive "bomb" waiting to explode.

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At some point, someone battered open a door to Warehouse 12 and knocked a hole in one of its walls.

When is not known. It was reported when State Security inspected the site this summer. In a July 20 report, it warned that the warehouse´s "Door Number 9 has suffered a blow in the middle, knocking it away from the wall enough to allow anyone to enter and steal the ammonium nitrate." It also noted the hole in the wall and pointed out that there was no guard at the warehouse, "making theft even easier."

The report to President Michel Aoun and then-Prime Minister Hassan Diab warned that thieves could steal the material to make explosives. Or, it said, the mass of material could cause an explosion "that would practically destroy the port." Kobaissi shared the report with the AP.

Aoun has been in office since 2016. After the explosion, he said the State Security report was the first time he´d heard of the dangerous stockpile. He said he immediately ordered military and security agencies to do "what was needed" - though he added he had no authority over the port.

After being criticized by rival politicians and on social media for not doing more, Aoun´s office issued a further statement saying that his military adviser had immediately forwarded the State Security report to the Higher Defense Council, the top defense body in the country.

But a government official said security agencies had repeatedly sent warnings directly to the government.

"The same memo was sent roughly every year basically since that ship arrived, and it became clear the stuff wasn´t moving. So, it was like a tradition and it wasn´t marked as priority," the official told AP, speaking on condition of anonymity because he wasn´t authorized to talk to the media.

Kobaissi, the investigative reporter, said all political factions in the country benefited from using the port for patronage, and most overlooked dubious dealings. He said many people knew about the initial warning by Skaff, including Hezbollah's former point man at the port.

Port and customs officials "are a gang, a mafia, appointed by a mafia gang that has come to office through an election process," Kobaissi told the AP.

He believes officials at the port were trying to find a legal cover to sell off the ammonium nitrate and skim off some of the money. He noted a similar scheme was run in the past when containers of confiscated asbestos were auctioned off. He said there were many instances of port officials profiting off impounded shipments, even keeping some goods - like Mini Coopers - for themselves.

Both the customs chief Daher and the head of the port, Hassan Koraytem, are among those detained in the wake of the explosion.

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On the afternoon of Aug. 4, security officials say, three metalworkers who had been working for several days to weld the broken Door Number 9 of Warehouse 12 finished work and left the facility.

The cause of the original fire has still not been determined and is at the heart of the current investigation. Some have questioned whether the welding may have sparked stocks of flammable liquids used in making detergents, as well as tons of fireworks that were also being kept in Warehouse 12. Other possibilities such as sabotage are also being investigated. The metalworkers, who were hired to fix the door by the port authorities in response to the security report, have been detained for questioning, according to security officials.

Shortly after the 10 firefighters arrived at the port, they sent an urgent call back to headquarters, asking for reinforcements. Photos they sent from their mobile phones to their colleagues showed them trying to open the gate of Warehouse 12.

"When they called us, they said they are hearing the sound of fireworks," Beirut fire chief Nabil Khankarli told the AP.

No one told the emergency responders that dangerous material was stored in the warehouse. No port officials were even there to help them open the gate, Khankarli said.

A second team jumped into their vehicles and headed toward the port. All across the city, flames and the pillar of black smoke could be seen pouring into the sky, lit up by popping fireworks. Many residents would later report hearing a jet or a drone and presuming it was Israeli, since Israel sends reconnaissance flights over Lebanon on an almost daily basis. No evidence has yet emerged of warplanes.

There was an initial explosion, sending shredded debris into the air. That first blast, survivors would recount later, sent some who had been watching the fire scurrying for cover.

Twelve seconds later, at 6:08 p.m., the ammonium nitrate detonated in one of the biggest non-nuclear explosions ever recorded.

In an instant, a blast with the force of hundreds of tons of TNT sucked in the air - one video showed a luxury store window exploding outward from the suction, spraying a bride and groom taking their wedding video on the sidewalk outside - and then unleashed its power across the city.

It blew a crater nearly 200 meters (yards) wide out of the port where Warehouse 12 once stood, and seawater poured in to fill it. The port was leveled. A grain silo right next to the warehouse was shredded and sheared in half - though its massive bulk partially shielded sections of the city from the blast. For miles around, in people´s homes and in shops and hospitals, windows were shattered, doors knocked off their hinges, ceilings or walls blown in a vicious whirlwind onto those inside.

Alaa Saad and his friends were out diving, about 2.5 kilometers (1.5 miles) off the coast of Beirut, when they started hearing noises from the direction of the port and saw the smoke. Was it fireworks? Ammunition?

"There were lots of flashes going off inside the smoke," he said. He heard some kind of eruption, like a volcano. "Something that was boiling very much," he said.

"Five seconds passed, and this is when I saw the cloud or the wave that was coming toward us at very high speed," he said. "It was insane speed. I could not even think if I wanted to jump in the water or stay on the boat."

Saad fell on the deck. A friend tumbled into the water.

"After that," he said, "I thought it was the end of Beirut or the end of the world or the war has started."

More than 6,000 people were injured, and at least 180 were killed - among them the 10 first responders. It would take days of searching before colleagues found all their bodies in the rubble.

Nearly three weeks later, theories abound. In the deeply polarized country, some have turned their suspicion to Hezbollah, which maintains a huge weapons stockpile in the country and dominates its politics. A member of the militant group was sentenced to six years in prison after he was arrested in Cyprus in 2015 in connection with the seizure of nine tons of ammonium nitrate at a house where he was staying.

An investigative team that includes Kobaissi, working with The Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project, found that the shadow owner of the Rhosus was actually a Cypriot who owed money to a Lebanese bank linked to Hezbollah - raising speculation that he brought in the ammonium nitrate for the group. The businessman, Charalambos Manoli, denied the report, insisting to the AP that he sold the ship in May 2012.

Others have peddled a theory that rivals of the group had sought to accrue the fertilizer for use as explosives in the war in neighboring Syria.

The documents show clear negligence and failure; the question of whether something more triggered the blast depends on an investigation that so far has seemed predictably slow and ineffectual.

The fire chief, Khankarli, is furious. So much destruction. So much bloodshed. All of it avoidable.

"We are waiting for the investigation," he said. "But what is gone cannot be recovered."



Netanyahu, 'Dodging Responsibility,' Battles the Curses of October 7

 Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu leaves after addressing the 81st United Nations General Assembly at UN headquarters in New York on September 24, 2026. (Photo by Leonardo Munoz / AFP)
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu leaves after addressing the 81st United Nations General Assembly at UN headquarters in New York on September 24, 2026. (Photo by Leonardo Munoz / AFP)
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Netanyahu, 'Dodging Responsibility,' Battles the Curses of October 7

 Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu leaves after addressing the 81st United Nations General Assembly at UN headquarters in New York on September 24, 2026. (Photo by Leonardo Munoz / AFP)
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu leaves after addressing the 81st United Nations General Assembly at UN headquarters in New York on September 24, 2026. (Photo by Leonardo Munoz / AFP)

If Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could erase October 7 from the calendar and wipe it from history, he would not hesitate for a moment. That date began as a curse that turned his life and many of the ideas surrounding him upside down. As it returned year after year, it became a series of accumulated curses that would require a divine miracle to escape.

On that day, three years ago, the sky fell on his head. When he was awakened at 6:40 a.m., 11 minutes after the Hamas attack on Israeli communities and military positions in the south began, and was told what had happened, he could not comprehend it. When he was given the initial details, that “a large number of people had been killed and wounded, and hostages had been taken to Gaza,” he was psychologically shocked.

In testimonies published by Ben Caspit, a writer for Maariv, people close to Netanyahu who saw him firsthand during those hours said that “Netanyahu’s lower jaw seemed slack, his face was pale, he spoke little, and something obsessive and delirious had entered his behavior.” “Why did they do this?” he asked, referring to Hamas’s leaders.

Even Gadi Eisenkot, who met Netanyahu four days after the attack, testified that he saw him frustrated and stunned.

He Devoted Himself to “Erasing Gaza”

In practice, Netanyahu left the management of the state’s response to the attack and the retaliation to the army and the other security agencies. The positions he announced when he appeared before the media were little more than parroted repetitions of what he was hearing from those commanders.

The army chief of staff at the time, Herzi Halevi, revealed that when he was about to leave his home at 6:30 a.m., his wife asked him where he was going. He replied: “To erase Gaza completely.” The phrase became an operational plan, and then a new military doctrine for the army and the entire Israeli state. Netanyahu began translating it into political language.

But according to an investigation by Ilana Dayan on the Israeli Channel 12 television program Uvda, the initial reactions were panicked and showed that Netanyahu’s first concern was to distance himself from responsibility for the October 7 failure. The investigation quoted his aide Eliezer Feldstein, who described Netanyahu’s state during the first days of the attack as “panicked” and “extremely frustrated.” Rather than focusing on the broader strategic implications of the event and issuing appropriate directives, he assigned his media team its “first and immediate task”: to devise an immediate plan to contain the media storm and evade political responsibility, repeatedly asking in frustration whether the news was still talking about his personal responsibility for the failure.

The Moment He Woke Up

Many observers of Netanyahu’s personality say that what pulled him out of his own frustration was the frustration he saw among his staff and close ministers, turning him into a roaring lion. It was no coincidence that he embraced the names “A People Like a Lion” and “The Lion’s Roar” for the two wars against Iran. He considers himself Israel’s “Mr. Security.” He feared that the public would discover the weakness that had afflicted him and his team and demand his removal. He began shouting at them: “Get out of this mindset. Read what they are writing about us,” meaning “about me,” “and respond to them. Terrible things are being written here instead of blaming the army and intelligence.”

From that point on, the government’s political line became one of blaming the military leadership for having been asleep on guard duty and failing to gather intelligence and prevent Hamas from attacking. The security agencies tried to defend themselves. They acknowledged part of the responsibility, conducted internal investigations, and punished some officials. All the heads of these agencies resigned, including Halevi from the army, Ronen Bar, head of the Shin Bet, and David Barnea, head of the Mossad, along with dozens of other generals.

On the Israeli street, there is a widespread belief that the army and the other security agencies do bear responsibility for the failure, but people also want Netanyahu to bear responsibility for it. He refuses. Not only that, he has also refused to establish an official commission of inquiry headed by a judge to investigate what happened. He insists that he is “the inspired leader whom God blessed the people of Israel with at the right time,” as his wife said in several media interviews.

Deep Sleep

Today, Netanyahu sees the general election scheduled for October 27, 2026, as decisive, not for the people of Israel, as political and media circles say, but for him personally. October 7 is the central issue. Despite all his attempts to move beyond it, his many opponents in politics, the media, academia, and the deep state insist on reminding the public of that date.

He has yielded to their pressure and begun addressing their accusations. He says: “If they had woken me half an hour earlier, the outcome would have been different.” Ben Caspit wrote about this on September 8, 2026: “Today, three years later, he dares to say: ‘If they had woken me, this would have looked completely different.’ But in reality, it can be said that even if they had actually woken him that night, nothing would have happened. Absolutely nothing.”

It is not difficult to reach this conclusion. Sadly, no one could have woken him in the middle of the night and told him that Hamas was about to launch an unprecedented attack on the south, with 6,000 militants crossing the barrier and taking over communities and bases. But, unfortunately, they did not know. It was an unprecedented intelligence and operational failure. Everyone responsible took responsibility for it and resigned.

In reality, they had tried to wake him for weeks and months. Who did not warn him? The army chief of staff tried to warn him, but he did not want to listen. The head of the Military Intelligence Directorate, Aman, sent him three letters, but he did not want to read them. (“There is exaggeration in this,” said Linnon Megil.) Avigdor Lieberman warned him. Yair Lapid warned him. His defense minister, Yoav Gallant, tried to wake him. Gadi Eisenkot sent him a letter saying that the situation was more dangerous than it had been on the eve of the Yom Kippur War. Nothing worked. Now he complains that they did not wake him that morning. No alarm bell went unheard. He simply did not want to wake up.

The Pitfall of a “Decisive Election”

Netanyahu believes he can convince voters of his position and win the election. He tells himself and his team: “I must win the election. Losing is not an option. It cannot happen. This is extremely dangerous.” What he means is that if he loses the election, the first consequence will be the establishment of an official commission of inquiry.

More than anyone else, and more than the investigators themselves, he knows that an impartial investigation would reveal how deeply he was involved in the failure. He was the one who forced the security agencies to accept the transfer of millions of dollars in cash to Hamas. He was the one who used to say that “Hamas is a treasure. By maintaining it and keeping it strong, we prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state.” He even convinced the most extreme members of his government of this theory, including Minister Bezalel Smotrich.

If he loses power, he will face the ongoing corruption trial against him, another corruption trial concerning the submarines that may follow, and perhaps a third trial over his role in the failures of October 7. His fate could be prison.

For that reason, Netanyahu will do everything in his power to prevent this danger, even if it means a war that would postpone the election.


Eisenkot: The Commander Who Saved Netanyahu, Only to Become His Target

Former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot, Yashar opposition party leader, visits a roadside bomb shelter on the third anniversary of the deadly Hamas-led October 7 2023 attack, near Reim in southern Israel, October 7, 2026.  REUTERS/Nir Elias
Former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot, Yashar opposition party leader, visits a roadside bomb shelter on the third anniversary of the deadly Hamas-led October 7 2023 attack, near Reim in southern Israel, October 7, 2026. REUTERS/Nir Elias
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Eisenkot: The Commander Who Saved Netanyahu, Only to Become His Target

Former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot, Yashar opposition party leader, visits a roadside bomb shelter on the third anniversary of the deadly Hamas-led October 7 2023 attack, near Reim in southern Israel, October 7, 2026.  REUTERS/Nir Elias
Former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot, Yashar opposition party leader, visits a roadside bomb shelter on the third anniversary of the deadly Hamas-led October 7 2023 attack, near Reim in southern Israel, October 7, 2026. REUTERS/Nir Elias

When Gadi Eisenkot decided to appeal to the Israeli public and seek its trust in a bid to become prime minister, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu felt he was in trouble. He was facing a figure unlike his previous rivals, Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid, Tzipi Livni, and even Shimon Peres and Ehud Barak.

The new challenger, Eisenkot, is not only a former army chief of staff with a strong military record, but also possesses distinctive personal qualities. He is the complete opposite of Netanyahu. Israeli analysts describe him as “straight as an arrow,” which is why his colleagues named their new party Yashar, meaning “straight.” He is a decent man. He does not swear, play political games, wage battles against the press, or engage in conspiracies. He is said to be made of a different mold from Israel's new generation of politicians. Some compare him to Yitzhak Rabin.

The Opposite of Netanyahu

Eisenkot is not a conventional opposition politician. When Israel was caught off guard by the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, and suffered a psychological shock, Eisenkot approached Netanyahu carrying a lifeline. Instead of pushing him to resign over the massive failure, Generals Eisenkot and Benny Gantz came to his support. They joined his government four days after the disaster and placed their experience and determination at his disposal to wage a war of retaliation.

Eisenkot is also not one of those leaders whose lives are riddled with flaws and scandals that opponents can exploit against them in political battles. His life is modest. His wife stays far from the spotlight. He is not known for extravagance, greed, or avarice. He does not accept gifts.

Nor does he belong to the Ashkenazi elite that has ruled, and continues to rule, Israel since its establishment. He comes from a family of Moroccan roots, and he takes pride in that heritage.

And that is not all. Eisenkot is a bereaved father. Just two years ago, his son was killed in the war in Gaza. His sister's son and his brother's son were also killed.

So how does Netanyahu conduct his electoral battle against such a figure? How can he turn against a man who stood beside him and supported him at his most difficult moments?

But these perfectly legitimate questions seem naive when faced with a figure like Netanyahu. He wants to win the election at any cost. He therefore wages his electoral battle without mercy, tearing down every word of praise for Eisenkot and inventing attributes, statements, and actions to pin on him.

For example, in a series aired by Channel 14, which is affiliated with Netanyahu, titled “Eisenkot” and aimed at undermining the man's stature and character, political correspondent Moti Kastel says: “Gadi Eisenkot is a man of the left. I also spoke with many people who were in the cabinet. When difficult decisions were on the table, they told me: ‘Gadi Eisenkot thinks like the left and says what he thinks.’ Gadi Eisenkot is a beloved, pampered teddy bear, gentle, at least in his appearance and demeanor. He is not fit to be prime minister in a country engulfed in wars.”

He adds: “Eisenkot is not an ordinary man of the left. He is deeply on the left. When a Palestinian girl carrying scissors approached a group of soldiers, he ordered them not to shoot her. He said: If there is a 13-year-old girl holding scissors or a knife, and there is a barrier between her and the soldiers, I will not accept a soldier opening fire and emptying a magazine of ammunition into such a girl, even if she is carrying out a very dangerous act. When Hamas fired 500 rockets at us, he justified not responding with a war by saying: ‘If, for every rocket that is fired, we go to war, we will end up in a Hundred Years' War.’ Is this a commander? He is someone who can be shaped like a PlayStation game. Others can decide on his behalf what he says, and they can decide on his behalf what he does. I believe Ehud Barak is behind him. He sees him today as someone capable of bringing down Netanyahu and moving Israel's leadership and government to the farthest left, the most liberal, the most progressive position. Yes, he has such foundations. Yes, he is committed to those people.”

A Defensive Position

It is clear that Netanyahu's electoral campaign is based on directing a series of accusations at Eisenkot. It does not matter whether they are true or based on lies. The goal is to undermine his image in the eyes of the public. But this is a familiar tactic in election campaigns. He wants Eisenkot to remain constantly occupied with defending himself. He does not want to give him room to breathe.

Netanyahu, who is prime minister and, by virtue of that position, should be the one facing scrutiny, criticism, and attacks, leaves no room for Eisenkot and keeps him constantly explaining, justifying, and defending himself. He has succeeded in doing so. Anyone who visits Eisenkot's social media accounts finds a prominent headline: “10 Lies.” It is a defense against the series of lies contained in Netanyahu's campaign.

Within this campaign, it is clear that Eisenkot has fallen into its trap and is trying to prove that he is the true liberal right. Netanyahu accuses him of planning to form a government based on Arab parties, so Eisenkot says that after October 7, he will not form a government with Arabs. He accuses him of supporting the establishment of a Palestinian state, and Eisenkot responds that he has never once said that he supports such a state, pointing out that Netanyahu was the one who had declared his support for the two-state solution. Netanyahu accuses him of promoting the theory of reducing the army, “a small and smart army,” which turned it into “a large and stupid army.”

Eisenkot tries to prove that he was the one who shut down wasteful and unnecessary military units and established a commando unit that operates far behind enemy lines. Netanyahu accuses him of advocating a policy of avoiding war in the fight against terrorism. Eisenkot responds that he was the one who crushed the Second Intifada when he was commander of the army in the West Bank, and that he was the one who etched the “Dahiya doctrine” into history when he carried out the strikes that destroyed Beirut's southern suburbs in 2006.

The biggest problem is that Eisenkot is not fighting Netanyahu alone. He is also facing his allies, Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid, and Avigdor Lieberman. Supposedly, they are on the same side and want to bring down Netanyahu because he is responsible for the biggest security and strategic failure in Israel's history. Yet they openly say they do not trust Eisenkot to lead the alternative camp, even though he is winning the highest number of seats in the polls.

He has proposed a modest, practical solution: “Let us agree that whoever wins the largest number of seats becomes our collective candidate for prime minister.” But they rejected it, with each demanding the position of prime minister for himself. The latest poll gives Eisenkot 22 seats, compared with 13 for Bennett and Lapid and nine for Lieberman.

Eisenkot, who was an opposition lawmaker on October 7 and rushed to help prevent the government from collapsing, helping transform Israel from a stunned and traumatized state into a state waging a fierce war against the Palestinians, paid a heavy personal price in the process. He lost his son, his sister's son, and his brother's son. Today, he and his party are putting forward a plan to make Israel a normal state that ends wars through political agreements and improves its standing in the world.

Yet he now finds himself in the defendant's seat before Netanyahu. He is fighting to make people remember the qualities that made him a popular figure for so long. He is trying to prove that he is not a “beloved, pampered teddy bear,” nor “someone who can be shaped like a PlayStation game,” but a leader carrying out a national duty to save Israel from itself. There is no doubt that it is a difficult battle, and its success is not necessarily guaranteed.

 


Yahya Sinwar: A Public Image Haunted by Scenes of Destruction

A banner in Tehran displays a portrait of late Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. (EPA)
A banner in Tehran displays a portrait of late Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. (EPA)
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Yahya Sinwar: A Public Image Haunted by Scenes of Destruction

A banner in Tehran displays a portrait of late Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. (EPA)
A banner in Tehran displays a portrait of late Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. (EPA)

On April 30, 2022, Yahya Sinwar (1962–2024), then head of Hamas' political bureau in the Gaza Strip, warned of a broad “regional religious war” if Israel continued its attacks on the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound and Jerusalem.

He urged representatives of Palestinian factions and their armed wings to prepare and remain ready. Yet no one imagined those preparations would be for what unfolded 18 months later, on Oct. 7, 2023.

It is difficult to say with certainty whether Sinwar had already conceived of Oct. 7 as the world would come to know it. But in the same speech, he pledged to “empty the prisons of all Palestinian prisoners and completely break the blockade.”

He reiterated that message in December 2022, telling Israelis: “We will come at you with a roaring flood ... We will come at you with countless rockets ... We will come at you with an endless flood of soldiers ... We will come at you with millions from our nation, wave after wave.”

In an investigation published in Haaretz last September, Israeli journalists Shlomi Eldar and Ruth Yuval said Sinwar had tried to convey a warning to Israel through a Fatah intermediary before the attack.

The investigation forms part of their recently published book, “Hostages: 843 Days of Abandonment.”

They said an agreement between Israel and Hamas, including a prisoner exchange and a prolonged period of calm, had been ready for signing several weeks before the attack. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu backed away and stalled its approval. His stance angered Sinwar, who decided to launch the attack, first warning the Israeli government of “a response that will cause an earthquake.”

The authors recount how, in early September 2023, Sinwar abruptly severed all contact with the team conducting the negotiations. “He disappeared completely from our radar,” a senior official in Israel's Shin Bet security service said.

The prospect of a major deal with Israel had collapsed, while the blockade of Gaza, which began in 2006, continued and restrictions tightened. Sinwar decided to unleash what he imagined would be an earthquake, setting the flood in motion.

Palestinians walk along a street surrounded by buildings destroyed in Israeli military strikes during the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza City, Tuesday, Oct. 6, 2026. (AP)

Sinwar’s killing

Israel responded with full force to Sinwar and his attack, launching an indiscriminate bombing campaign across the Gaza Strip and carrying out an unprecedented series of assassinations. These reached a peak at the time with the killing of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in July 2024 in a complex operation in Tehran.

A Hamas source said “the movement's decision to choose Sinwar as Haniyeh's successor amounted to a mandate for him, reflecting a vote of confidence by the movement and its leadership in his popularity and support for his course.”

The al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas' armed wing, were still confronting Israel and inflicting losses commensurate with the fighting on the ground, setting aside Israel's overwhelming advantage in airstrikes and missile bombardment.

Around the first anniversary of the continuing war in Gaza, Sinwar was suddenly killed in October 2024 in an encounter Israel had not planned. But the scene of his death was not the final chapter.

Israel sought to wipe out Gaza through what UN commissions have described as “genocide.” In its war on the territory, it wholly or partially destroyed 82% of its buildings and 90% of its infrastructure and killed 74,000 of its residents. Reconstruction costs are estimated at about $71 billion.

The immense cost of Israel's war left its mark on Sinwar's image even after his death, and on Hamas despite its signing of a ceasefire agreement in October 2025.

Among Gaza's residents, perceptions of Sinwar have undoubtedly changed considerably. Even among Hamas supporters who are not members of the movement, videos, testimonies and local discussions in recent months have shown attacks on Sinwar's decision and criticism of a man who has become the target of numerous accusations.

But a Hamas source told Asharq Al-Awsat: “The insults, harsh criticism and other attacks directed at Sinwar throughout the war were unfair. A man cannot be judged for seeking to take an important step aimed at making everyone feel what Gaza had been suffering: a blockade and daily killing by Israel.”

Palestinians walk along a street lined with tents sheltering displaced people and buildings destroyed by Israeli military strikes during the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza City, Tuesday, Oct. 6, 2026. (AP)

Polls and declining support

Palestinians did not arrive at a relative decline in support for the Oct. 7 attack overnight, according to two polls conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research.

A poll released in March 2024 showed that overall support for Oct. 7 remained high, but had fallen by 11 percentage points in the West Bank and risen by about 14 points in Gaza.

The March report attributed the rise in support to another motive: “Three-quarters of Palestinians believe the attack put the Israeli-Palestinian issue at the center of attention and ended years of neglect.”

But another poll by the same center, released in September 2024, recorded a shift in support for the attack. Support fell by 13 percentage points overall across the West Bank and Gaza, with a larger decline of 18 points in Gaza, following a 14-point drop recorded in the June poll.

A further poll conducted by the center last August showed support for Hamas falling to 24%, compared with 35% in its October 2025 poll. Support for Fatah remained at 24% in both surveys.

The center's findings showed that support for Hamas in the West Bank fell from 32% in October 2025 to 18% in August 2026. In Gaza, it declined from 41% to 33%.

A poll released last August by the Jerusalem Media and Communication Centre, in cooperation with the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, pointed to a similarly marked decline in Hamas' standing and popularity.

The proportion of respondents who trusted the movement fell to 6.7%, from 12% in June 2022. Trust in Fatah also declined, to 22.3% from 28.8%.

An Israeli woman pays her respects at the memorial to the victims of the 2023 Hamas attacks at the Nova festival site in Reim, southern Israel, on October 6, 2026. (AFP)

Has Hamas reviewed Sinwar's decision?

Three years after Oct. 7, three Hamas sources inside Gaza and a fourth outside the territory said: “There have been no reviews of what happened, and none of the leaders has criticized it. Although many knew nothing, or had varying degrees of knowledge, they have not changed their positions.”

But a fifth source outside Gaza said: “Support within Hamas exists only at the official level. Some criticism was occasionally voiced in private meetings among leaders at different levels. But it concerned certain aspects, as happened with negotiations and other matters, rather than the substance of the attack itself. There were differing views over its broad scope and the failure to properly anticipate Israel's response.”

The latter source, who lives outside Gaza, said: “Despite the destruction, Palestinians gained considerable international support and exposed Israel's true nature and criminality. This increased solidarity with Palestine and brought its cause back into focus around the world.”

Mustafa Ibrahim, a Palestinian political analyst based in Gaza, said: “Public criticism of Sinwar and anger over the decision he took without properly studying it continue, compounded by what residents of the territory endured and the loss of their homes and possessions.”

“Palestinians and others outside Gaza may support what Sinwar did simply because they did not experience the same destruction, killing, displacement and other conditions,” he added.