GERD Talks in Doubt Following Unrest in Ethiopia

 Ethiopian army soldiers heading on a mission in the Amhara region near the border with the Tigray region, which Addis Ababa accuses of seeking secession. (Reuters)
Ethiopian army soldiers heading on a mission in the Amhara region near the border with the Tigray region, which Addis Ababa accuses of seeking secession. (Reuters)
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GERD Talks in Doubt Following Unrest in Ethiopia

 Ethiopian army soldiers heading on a mission in the Amhara region near the border with the Tigray region, which Addis Ababa accuses of seeking secession. (Reuters)
Ethiopian army soldiers heading on a mission in the Amhara region near the border with the Tigray region, which Addis Ababa accuses of seeking secession. (Reuters)

Internal conflicts in Ethiopia have cast a shadow over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dams negotiations with Egypt and Sudan, amid fears of further delays of the AU-sponsored talks.

This comes as the war in Tigray region has caused a crack in the foundation of the ruling Ethiopian coalition led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

Last weekend, the Ethiopian army announced the war on the northern region following an attack by Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) on a federal military base in the area.

According to observers, the army’s military intervention, which left dozens of casualties, threatens to spark a wide civil war in the country.

Ahmed, however, has been seeking to reassure citizens by tweeting that Ethiopia is grateful to its friends who expressed concern.

“Fears of Ethiopia’s sliding into chaos are baseless and come as a result of a lack of understanding of our conditions.”

Dr. Hani Raslan, an expert on African affairs at Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo, has expected the fighting to expand.

Abiy, who won 2019’s Nobel Peace Prize, has sacked prominent political figures in an attempt to control the situation. These include the army chief of staff, director of the intelligence service and the foreign minister, who was leading the GERD talks.

The unrest in Ethiopia is expected to affect the completion of GERD project, which Addis Ababa has been constructing since 2011 on the Blue Nile, the main tributary of the Nile water, and raises tensions with Egypt and Sudan.

Rislan told Asharq Al-Awsat that if the fighting continues, there will be no strong authority that can attain the political and strategic objectives of the dam.

Since July, the three countries have been in negotiations, hoping to reach an agreement over filling and operating the GERD.

Negotiations were suspended at the end of last August due to technical and legal disputes.

Egypt and Sudan fear that this will affect their shares in the Nile waters and stress the need to reach a binding agreement that guarantees the rights and interests of the three countries, and includes a mechanism for settling disputes.



Lebanon’s PM Visits Syrian President to Discuss Border Demarcation and Security

Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam meets with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Damascus, Syria April 14, 2025. (Dalati & Nohra/Handout via Reuters)
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam meets with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Damascus, Syria April 14, 2025. (Dalati & Nohra/Handout via Reuters)
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Lebanon’s PM Visits Syrian President to Discuss Border Demarcation and Security

Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam meets with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Damascus, Syria April 14, 2025. (Dalati & Nohra/Handout via Reuters)
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam meets with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Damascus, Syria April 14, 2025. (Dalati & Nohra/Handout via Reuters)

Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam led a high-level ministerial delegation to Syria on Monday for talks with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, marking the most significant diplomatic visit between the two countries since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in December.

"My visit to Damascus today aims to open a new page in the history of relations between the two countries, based on mutual respect, restoring trust, good neighborliness," Salam said in a statement on X.

At the center of discussions was implementing a March 28 agreement signed in Saudi Arabia by the Syrian and Lebanese defense ministers to demarcate land and sea borders and improve coordination on border security issues, Salam said in the statement.

The Lebanese-Syrian border witnessed deadly clashes earlier this year and years of unrest in the frontier regions, which have been plagued by weapons and illicit drug smuggling through illegal crossings.

During Monday’s meeting, Salam and Sharaa agreed to form a joint ministerial committee to oversee the implementation of the border agreement, close illegal crossings and suppress smuggling activity along the border.

The border area, especially near Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley and Syria’s Qusayr region, has long been a corridor for illicit trade, arms trafficking, and the movement of fighters — including Hezbollah fighters who backed the Assad government during Syria’s 14-year civil war.

Hezbollah has been significantly weakened in its recent war with Israel and since Assad's ousting, it lost several key smuggling routes it once relied on for weapons transfers.

Lebanon also pressed Syria to provide clarity on the fate of thousands of Lebanese nationals who were forcibly disappeared or imprisoned in Syrian jails in the 1980s and 1990s, during Syria’s nearly 30-year military presence in Lebanon. Human rights groups have long documented the lack of accountability and transparency regarding these cases, with families of the missing holding regular demonstrations in Beirut demanding answers.

Syrian officials for their part raised the issue of Syrian nationals detained in Lebanese prisons, Salam said. Many of the detainees were arrested for illegal entry or alleged involvement in militant activity. Rights advocates in both countries have criticized the lack of due process in many of these cases and the poor conditions inside detention facilities.

Lebanon pledged to hand over people implicated in crimes committed by the Assad government and security forces, many of whom are believed to have fled to Lebanon after the government’s collapse, if found on Lebanese soil, a ministerial source told The Associated Press.

The official spoke on the condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to publicly comment.

In return, Lebanese officials requested the extradition of Syrians wanted in Lebanese courts for high-profile political assassinations, "most notably those involved in the bombing of the Al-Taqwa and Al-Salam mosques, those convicted of assassinating President Bashir Gemayel, and other crimes for which the Assad regime is accused," Salam said.

For decades, Lebanon witnessed a long series of politically motivated assassinations targeting journalists, politicians and security officials, particularly those opposed to Syrian influence. The 2013 twin bombings of the Al-Taqwa and Al-Salam mosques in Tripoli in northern Lebanon killed more than 40 people and intensified sectarian tensions already heightened by the spillover from the Syrian war.

Syria has never officially acknowledged involvement in any of Lebanon’s political assassinations.

Salam said he also pushed for renewed cooperation on the return of Syrian refugees.

Lebanese government officials estimate the country hosts about 1.5 million Syrian refugees, of whom about 755,000 are officially registered with the UN refugee agency, or UNHCR, making it the country with the highest number of refugees per capita in the world.

While Lebanese authorities have long urged the international community to support large-scale repatriation efforts, human rights organizations have cautioned against forced returns, citing ongoing security concerns and a lack of guarantees in Syria.

Since the fall of Assad in December, an estimated 400,000 refugees have returned to Syria from neighboring countries, according to UNHCR, with about half of them coming from Lebanon, but many are hesitant to return because of the dire economic situation and fears of continuing instability in Syria.