New Impasse Hinders Resumption of GERD Talks

The Sudanese ministers of irrigation and foreign affairs during the meeting on Sunday, January 10, 2021 (AFP)
The Sudanese ministers of irrigation and foreign affairs during the meeting on Sunday, January 10, 2021 (AFP)
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New Impasse Hinders Resumption of GERD Talks

The Sudanese ministers of irrigation and foreign affairs during the meeting on Sunday, January 10, 2021 (AFP)
The Sudanese ministers of irrigation and foreign affairs during the meeting on Sunday, January 10, 2021 (AFP)

A new round of negotiations between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt aimed at resolving a long-running dispute about the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has once again faltered.

Irrigation ministers of Cairo, Addis Ababa, and Khartoum held a meeting on Sunday chaired by the foreign minister of South Africa, current African Union president, to discuss means of resuming negotiations.

“Sudan insisted on the assigning of AU experts to offer solutions to contentious issues ... a proposal which Egypt and Ethiopia have reservations about,” Egypt’s foreign ministry said in a statement posted to social media.

The six-way meeting failed to achieve any progress due to disagreements over means of resuming negotiations, as well as the procedural aspects of managing the negotiation process, the statement explained.

Cairo and Addis Ababa insist on the three countries’ right to draft the texts and provisions of GERD’s filling and operation agreement, the statement noted, adding that the AU experts are not specialists in the technical and engineering fields related to the management of water resources and dam operations.

In its own statement on state news agency SUNA, Sudan said it objected to what it said was a Jan. 8 letter from Ethiopia to the AU stating that Ethiopia was determined to fill the reservoir for the second year in July with 13.5 million cubic meters of water, whether an agreement is reached or not.

“We cannot continue this vicious cycle of circular talks indefinitely,” Sudanese irrigation minister Yasir Abbas said in a statement.

He stressed that Khartoum was concerned the dam could overwhelm its nearby Roseires dam if an agreement is not reached that would allow the countries to share data.

On Saturday, Sudanese officials AU experts team held a meeting over GERD.

The meeting came in response to Sudan’s call for giving AU experts a greater role to facilitate the talks among the three countries to contribute to the preparation of a second document for the proposed memorandum of agreement they earlier received in previous meetings.

Parties thoroughly discussed the importance of setting up a clear reference framework for the role of the AU experts.

Khartoum also stressed the necessity that the AU plays a more effective leadership role than its role in the previous rounds of talks, highlighting the importance of reaching a binding agreement to discuss and end any potential dispute.

Sudan rejects dividing the agreement into first filling and then permanent operation and demands reaching a single, comprehensive agreement that addresses all GERD issues.

South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor voiced her “regret that the talks reached a dead end.”

Pandor said she would refer the matter to South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, current chairperson of the African Union, for necessary measures.

The three countries have been engaged in strenuous negotiations for about 10 years to agree on mechanisms for operating and filling the dam, without yielding any results so far.

Egypt has called GERD an existential threat and worries that it will reduce the country’s share of Nile waters.

Ethiopia says the 145-meter tall dam will be an engine of development and is vital to meet the power needs of its population.

Sudan, in the middle, worries about the effects on its own dams, although it stands to benefit from access to cheap electricity.

The Blue Nile, which meets the White Nile in the Sudanese capital, provides the great majority of the combined Nile’s flow through northern Sudan and Egypt to the Mediterranean.



Syria Hopes for Terrorism Delisting to Spur Economic Recovery

01 June 2026, Syria, Deir Ezzor: A view of the war-damaged buildings in Deir Ezzor. (dpa)
01 June 2026, Syria, Deir Ezzor: A view of the war-damaged buildings in Deir Ezzor. (dpa)
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Syria Hopes for Terrorism Delisting to Spur Economic Recovery

01 June 2026, Syria, Deir Ezzor: A view of the war-damaged buildings in Deir Ezzor. (dpa)
01 June 2026, Syria, Deir Ezzor: A view of the war-damaged buildings in Deir Ezzor. (dpa)

The Syrian government is betting that removal from Washington’s list of state sponsors of terrorism, a designation in place since 1979, will clear the biggest political and legal hurdle to its economic recovery.

Alongside remaining sanctions, the designation has blocked any tangible gains from what was billed as a near-comprehensive lifting of international sanctions about a year ago.

Sources in Damascus said the US hesitation was tied to Israel’s opposition to lifting sanctions. Other sources pointed to a mix of regional, international and domestic factors.

In a recent phone call with US President Donald Trump, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa asked for the remaining sanctions to be lifted, saying the move was essential to revive Syria’s economy, improve living conditions and attract investment.

Syria remains caught in a complex sanctions web despite limited easing in recent months. Those measures covered Sharaa himself, the interior minister, the central bank, Syrian Airlines, the ports of Latakia and Tartus, and the Syrian Petroleum Company.

Researcher and economic expert Ziad Arbash told Asharq Al-Awsat that the sanctions still in place include the Caesar Act, which has only been suspended repeatedly and temporarily for 180 days at a time, not permanently repealed, leaving investors facing uncertainty.

They also include the state sponsor of terrorism designation, as well as broad secondary sanctions, including hundreds of measures still imposed by the United States, the European Union and the United Kingdom on individuals and entities.

Other restrictions remain on technology exports, above all strict US curbs on dual-use civilian and military technologies, along with personal sanctions on fugitive former president Bashar al-Assad and his inner circle.

Arbash said removing Syria from the state sponsors of terrorism list would unlock direct US investment, which had been fully banned, help reconnect Syrian banks to the global financial system, ease bank transfers and bolster international confidence.

Washington says sanctions will continue to target people it accuses of human rights abuses, Captagon traffickers and other actors it sees as destabilizing the region.

That position comes as US policy in the Middle East rests on the view that a US-centric balance of power works best when allies are encouraged to become more self-reliant and to share burdens through their interdependence and integration with one another.

This is according to Tom Barrack’s first comments after taking up his new duties as special presidential envoy for Syria and Iraq.

But Trump’s policy may be colliding with the realities of a Syria emerging from war.

Abbas Sharifa, a researcher in international relations, said keeping Syria on the state sponsors of terrorism list raises “fundamental problems” that clash with the US view of Syria as a partner in the fight against terrorism.

He said the United States arranged its withdrawal from Syria on the basis that “the Syrian state has become capable of confronting the threat of terrorism.”

Reality also undermines the designation, he said, because “Syria today plays an important role in pursuing ISIS, has no relationship with Iranian militias and provides no support to any groups Washington considers terrorist organizations.”

Sharifa said the delay in lifting the remaining sanctions was likely tied to political positions held by some pro-Israel members of Congress.

Trump’s Syria policy, he said, has long run counter to Israel’s view, but “there appears to be Israeli pressure in some decision-making circles to obstruct this measure and link it to the signing of the security agreement with Israel, which has faltered because of Israeli intransigence.”

He ruled out Syria’s commercial and military ties with Russia as an obstacle, saying that “the US administration itself granted exemptions for the export of Russian oil.”

Across Syria, frustration has replaced the optimism that followed the partial lifting of sanctions. A year on, the economy remains far from real recovery, and the impact on daily life has been very limited, Arbash said.

He said the reasons are complex. Remaining sanctions still prevent Western banks and companies from operating freely in the Syrian market.

The United States and European countries will not move toward a full lifting of sanctions without the implementation of United Nations Security Council resolution 2254, an improved human rights record and guarantees for the safe return of refugees.

Full repeal of the Caesar Act also requires approval from the US Congress, a lengthy process with political hurdles.

“Even if sanctions were lifted completely today, the positive effects, such as investment inflows, would need months or years to appear on the ground,” Arbash said.

He also pointed to international concern that aid or investment “could fund corruption unless there are transparent mechanisms to ensure it reaches the Syrian people.”

Internal divisions are another obstacle. Some areas remain outside central government control, making it harder to apply unified economic decisions. Added to all these factors is Israeli opposition to lifting sanctions.


Iraq’s Asaib Ahl Al-Haq Says It Will Start Handing Its Weapons to the State

Members of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces parade of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq, participate in a Quds Day march in Baghdad, Iraq, Friday, July 1, 2016. (AP)
Members of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces parade of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq, participate in a Quds Day march in Baghdad, Iraq, Friday, July 1, 2016. (AP)
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Iraq’s Asaib Ahl Al-Haq Says It Will Start Handing Its Weapons to the State

Members of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces parade of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq, participate in a Quds Day march in Baghdad, Iraq, Friday, July 1, 2016. (AP)
Members of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces parade of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq, participate in a Quds Day march in Baghdad, Iraq, Friday, July 1, 2016. (AP)

One of Iraq’s most powerful Iran-backed armed groups said Tuesday it would begin putting its weapons under government control, a major step in the new government’s effort to bring armed factions that have long operated on their own under state command.

Asaib Ahl al-Haq said it had formed a committee to oversee the move, including an inventory of its fighters, weapons and equipment, and to coordinate with the commander-in-chief of the armed forces. The group cast the decision as a response to calls by Iraq’s top Shiite religious authority and the Iran-aligned Coordination Framework, the largest bloc in parliament that dominates Iraqi politics.

The war in the Middle East has exposed the fragility of Iraq’s state institutions and their limited ability to restrain these groups. A parallel confrontation between Washington and the factions has deepened the crisis, with factions acting as an extension of Iran’s regional campaign and escalating attacks on US assets in Iraq before a tenuous ceasefire deal was reached in April.

The first significant move came a week ago, when the influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr said his Saraya al-Salam faction would split from his political movement and integrate into state institutions.

Under pressure from Washington, Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has been working to assert state authority over weapons.

Zaidi, a 40-year-old banker sworn in last month has made a state monopoly on arms a centerpiece of his program. The Trump administration has warned against any government influenced by Iran-linked factions and tied defense cooperation and funding to efforts to curb them.

Many Iran-backed factions are funded through the Iraqi state budget and embedded within the security apparatus, although not under the government's control. This has drawn criticism from the United States and other countries that have borne the brunt of their attacks and say Baghdad has failed to take a tougher stance.

Several armed factions aligned with Iraq’s Coordination Framework have taken a different stance on efforts to bring weapons under state control. Two important groups, Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba, have rejected disarmament, tying the issue to Iraq’s sovereignty and the presence of foreign troops.

Kataib Hezbollah welcomed moves by other factions to place weapons under state authority but said its own armed activity will continue as part of what it describes as “resistance work." In a recent statement attributed to its Abu Mujahid al-Assaf, the group said it would offer coordination with the Popular Mobilization Forces rather than surrendering arms.

The PMF, a state-backed umbrella of armed groups, was formed in 2014 to fight the ISIS group. Many of its groups still keep their own command and ties to Iran.


Lebanon’s Berri to Guarantee Hezbollah Respect for ‘Global’ Truce with Israel, Says Adviser

 Rescue workers use excavators, as they search for victims under the rubble of a building that was hit Monday in an Israeli airstrike in the southern port city of Tyre, Lebanon, Tuesday, June 2, 2026. (AP)
Rescue workers use excavators, as they search for victims under the rubble of a building that was hit Monday in an Israeli airstrike in the southern port city of Tyre, Lebanon, Tuesday, June 2, 2026. (AP)
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Lebanon’s Berri to Guarantee Hezbollah Respect for ‘Global’ Truce with Israel, Says Adviser

 Rescue workers use excavators, as they search for victims under the rubble of a building that was hit Monday in an Israeli airstrike in the southern port city of Tyre, Lebanon, Tuesday, June 2, 2026. (AP)
Rescue workers use excavators, as they search for victims under the rubble of a building that was hit Monday in an Israeli airstrike in the southern port city of Tyre, Lebanon, Tuesday, June 2, 2026. (AP)

Lebanese parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a key Hezbollah ally, will guarantee the Iran-backed group's adherence to a "global ceasefire" with Israel, his adviser told AFP on Tuesday.

Berri, who heads the Hezbollah-allied Amal party, has long acted as an intermediary between the group and the United States, which considers Hezbollah a "terrorist" organization.

US President Donald Trump said late Monday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had agreed to call off a military raid on Beirut while Hezbollah agreed "all shooting will stop".

Despite the announcement Israeli drone strikes on southern Lebanon on Tuesday killed eight people, including a father and his son and daughter.

Adviser Ali Hamdan told AFP that "speaker Berri's main demand is a global ceasefire. If a global ceasefire deal is reached, he will guarantee Hezbollah's respect for it."

Hamdan said a "global ceasefire means a halt to Israeli strikes by air, land or sea, and that it will not carry out detonations or demolitions" in the south, where Israel is accused of razing entire villages.

Trump had said that "through highly placed Representatives, I had a very good call with Hezbollah, and they agreed that all shooting will stop -- That Israel will not attack them, and they will not attack Israel."

Netanyahu said late Monday that he had told Trump "that if Hezbollah does not cease attacking our towns and our citizens, Israel will strike terrorist targets in Beirut".

Hezbollah has not released a statement on the announcement.

Lebanon's embassy in the United States said on Monday that Hezbollah had accepted a US proposal on a "mutual cessation of attacks".

"Under the proposed arrangement, Israeli strikes on Dahieh would cease in exchange for Hezbollah refraining from launching attacks against Israel, with the ceasefire framework to be expanded to encompass all Lebanese territory," the embassy statement released by the Lebanese presidency added, referring to Beirut's southern suburbs.

Iran has insisted that a ceasefire in Lebanon remains a key condition for any deal with the United States to end the Middle East war.

Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who is also the country's chief negotiator, said on Monday night that he and Berri had spoken by phone.

Ghalibaf told his Lebanese counterpart that "if the Israeli aggression on Lebanon continues, we will not just stop the negotiation process, but we will be in a direct confrontation with the enemy", he said on X, referring to Israel.

Iran's Tasnim news agency reported on Monday that Tehran was no longer engaging in talks with Washington because of Israel's offensive on Lebanon, although there was no official confirmation of this.