European Document Rejects 2021 Syrian Presidential Elections

Damascus is set to hold the elections in mid-2021 based on the 2012 constitution. (Reuters)
Damascus is set to hold the elections in mid-2021 based on the 2012 constitution. (Reuters)
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European Document Rejects 2021 Syrian Presidential Elections

Damascus is set to hold the elections in mid-2021 based on the 2012 constitution. (Reuters)
Damascus is set to hold the elections in mid-2021 based on the 2012 constitution. (Reuters)

European countries have kicked off a drive to approve a document, submitted by France, that rejects “any presidential elections not based on United Nations Security Council resolution 2254.”

Damascus is set to hold the elections in mid-2021 based on the 2012 constitution. President Bashar Assad’s reelection is all but secured. His allies, Moscow and Tehran, already support the elections, with Russia hoping that they will mark a “turning point” that would end Damascus’ isolation. It is hoping that they would pave the way for Arab and European countries to restore diplomatic and political ties with Syria, help in its reconstruction and acknowledge the legitimacy of the polls.

Guaranteed win
UN envoy to Syria Geir Pedersen was informed that the elections and the proceedings of the Constitutional Committee were not connected. The committee is tasked with drafting a new constitution, which should ideally be ratified after the elections.

There were hopes that the new constitution would have been drafted before the polls so that they would be held according to, but the committee has failed to make any significant progress in five rounds of talks, the last of which took place earlier this year. Pedersen himself acknowledged the failure after the last round, indirectly pinning blame on the regime.

Holding the elections according to the 2012 constitution allows Assad to comfortably win a third seven-year term in office. Nominees need to have continuously resided in Syria for ten years. Their candidacy must also be approved by 35 members of parliament.

Moscow has implied that reforms to these conditions could be approved during the 2024 parliamentary elections. The ruling Baath had swept the 2020 elections, effectively meaning that the fate of any presidential candidate lies in its hands.

No figure has submitted their nomination for the presidential elections, but some media campaigns have started to hit the ground in government-held areas. Reports have said that efforts are underway to reach an understanding with the Kurdish autonomous authority in the region east of the Euphrates to set up polling stations there. The authority controls about a quarter of Syrian territory.

It is unlikely that polling stations will be set up in the northeastern opposition-held Idlib province, the north and neighboring countries hosting refugees, such as Turkey and Jordan, with the exception of Lebanon.

Western countries have criticized Russia for suggesting that the presidential elections and Constitutional Committee talks should be separated, saying that will only harm the political process. Western countries have previously rejected the 2012, 2016 and 2020 parliamentary polls and the 2014 presidential ones.

Rejection of elections
Representatives of European countries have already started to hold meetings to approve the “French document” to take a united stance over the presidential elections.

Asharq Al-Awsat obtained a copy of the document, which calls for reviving the UN mediation that has been inactive for three years. The mediation should breathe new political life and help reinvolve the Syrian people, inside and outside the country, in the political process.

It expressed opposition to attempts by the regime and its allies to declare an end to the crisis by holding “fraudulent” elections in 2021. It slammed the authorities for failing to commit to the political process outlined in resolution 2254 and for failing to directly address the root causes of the crisis.

It expressed concern that the upcoming elections would be held based on a constitution and laws that grant the regime sole power. It warned that the elections would be exploited by the regime and its backers to unilaterally declare an end to the crisis while failing to commit to anything that meets the aspirations of the people. Moreover, it warned that the elections will discourage refugees from returning home.

The document said European countries have felt the direct impact of the Syrian crisis, both on the level of security and with migrants. They are therefore, greatly invested in preventing the political process from veering off its right course. They called for holding transparent elections based on resolution 2254, which will effectively help resolve the crisis, not deepen it.

It is obvious such transparent elections will not be held any time soon, the document lamented.

Any elections that are not held according to the resolution cannot help end the crisis, rather they will only undermine efforts to reach a real sustainable political settlement, continued the document.

It cited Pedersen’s remarks that a political settlement in line with resolution 2254 is not viable without holding free and transparent presidential elections.

The document proposed four working steps: Guaranteeing that refugees inside and outside Syria take part in the voting process; implementing confidence-building measures and finding a neutral and safe environment to hold the polls; preparing the legal conditions to stage the elections; allowing the UN to oversee the voting process and securing the greatest level of impartiality.

EU position
Members of the European Union are expected to approve the document when they meet on March 15 to mark the tenth anniversary of the conflict. They are set to push for increasing the UN’s jurisdiction and bolster Arab contribution in the Syrian elections, explaining that the Arabs are a main element in resolving the crisis.

Neighboring countries will be encouraged to cooperate with Pedersen to help stage the elections for Syrian refugees. The Syrian diaspora, civil society and opposition should be supported to allow them to clearly express their demands over the presidential elections. The document suggested that efforts should be launched to hold future elections based on resolution 2254 and in a way that allows expatriates to vote without having to receive prior approval from the official Syrian authorities.

Western-approved elections would follow four rules: Strict guarantees that allow refugees and the displaced to take part in the voting; confidence-building measures that would create a secure and impartial environment for voters; preparing the legal ground for a plurality vote; allowing the UN to oversee the polls to ensure their utmost transparency.

Pedersen has refused to be involved in preparations to hold the presidential elections, saying they were beyond his jurisdiction.



Iran-Israel War: A Lifeline for Netanyahu?

FILE - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a ceremony on the eve of Israel's Remembrance Day for fallen soldiers at the Yad LaBanim Memorial in Jerusalem, on April 29, 2025. (Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP, File)
FILE - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a ceremony on the eve of Israel's Remembrance Day for fallen soldiers at the Yad LaBanim Memorial in Jerusalem, on April 29, 2025. (Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP, File)
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Iran-Israel War: A Lifeline for Netanyahu?

FILE - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a ceremony on the eve of Israel's Remembrance Day for fallen soldiers at the Yad LaBanim Memorial in Jerusalem, on April 29, 2025. (Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP, File)
FILE - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a ceremony on the eve of Israel's Remembrance Day for fallen soldiers at the Yad LaBanim Memorial in Jerusalem, on April 29, 2025. (Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP, File)

The Iran-Israel war has helped strengthen Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu domestically and overseas, just as his grip on power looked vulnerable.

On the eve of launching strikes on Iran, his government looked to be on the verge of collapse, with a drive to conscript ultra-Orthodox Jews threatening to scupper his fragile coalition.

Nearly two years on from Hamas's unprecedented attack in 2023, Netanyahu was under growing domestic criticism for his handling of the war in Gaza, where dozens of hostages remain unaccounted for, said AFP.

Internationally too, he was coming under pressure including from longstanding allies, who since the war with Iran began have gone back to expressing support.

Just days ago, polls were predicting Netanyahu would lose his majority if new elections were held, but now, his fortunes appear to have reversed, and Israelis are seeing in "Bibi" the man of the moment.

– 'Reshape the Middle East' –

For decades, Netanyahu has warned of the risk of a nuclear attack on Israel by Iran -- a fear shared by most Israelis.

Yonatan Freeman, a geopolitics expert at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, said Netanyahu's argument that the pre-emptive strike on Iran was necessary draws "a lot of public support" and that the prime minister has been "greatly strengthened".

Even the opposition has rallied behind him.

"Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is my political rival, but his decision to strike Iran at this moment in time is the right one," opposition leader Yair Lapid wrote in a Jerusalem Post op-ed.

A poll published Saturday by a conservative Israeli channel showed that 54 percent of respondents expressed confidence in the prime minister.

The public had had time to prepare for the possibility of an offensive against Iran, with Netanyahu repeatedly warning that Israel was fighting for its survival and had an opportunity to "reshape the Middle East."

During tit-for-tat military exchanges last year, Israel launched air raids on targets in Iran in October that are thought to have severely damaged Iranian air defenses.

Israel's then-defense minister Yoav Gallant said the strikes had shifted "the balance of power" and had "weakened" Iran.

"In fact, for the past 20 months, Israelis have been thinking about this (a war with Iran)," said Denis Charbit, a political scientist at Israel's Open University.

Since Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, Netanyahu has ordered military action in Gaza, against the Iran-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, as well as targets in Syria where long-time leader Bashar al-Assad fell in December last year.

"Netanyahu always wants to dominate the agenda, to be the one who reshuffles the deck himself -- not the one who reacts -- and here he is clearly asserting his Churchillian side, which is, incidentally, his model," Charbit said.

"But depending on the outcome and the duration (of the war), everything could change, and Israelis might turn against Bibi and demand answers."

– Silencing critics –

For now, however, people in Israel see the conflict with Iran as a "necessary war," according to Nitzan Perelman, a researcher specialized in Israel at the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS) in France.

"Public opinion supports this war, just as it has supported previous ones," she added.

"It's very useful for Netanyahu because it silences criticism, both inside the country and abroad."

In the weeks ahead of the Iran strikes, international criticism of Netanyahu and Israel's military had reached unprecedented levels.

After more than 55,000 deaths in Gaza, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory, and a blockade that has produced famine-like conditions there, Israel has faced growing isolation and the risk of sanctions, while Netanyahu himself is the subject of an international arrest warrant for alleged war crimes.

But on Sunday, two days into the war with Iran, the Israeli leader received a phone call from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, while Foreign Minister Gideon Saar has held talks with numerous counterparts.

"There's more consensus in Europe in how they see Iran, which is more equal to how Israel sees Iran," explained Freeman from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Tuesday that Israel was doing "the dirty work... for all of us."

The idea that a weakened Iran could lead to regional peace and the emergence of a new Middle East is appealing to the United States and some European countries, according to Freeman.

But for Perelman, "Netanyahu is exploiting the Iranian threat, as he always has."