Egypt's Private Sector Activity Edges Close to Growth

A general view of buildings by the Nile River in Cairo, Egypt July 2, 2019. REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany
A general view of buildings by the Nile River in Cairo, Egypt July 2, 2019. REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany
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Egypt's Private Sector Activity Edges Close to Growth

A general view of buildings by the Nile River in Cairo, Egypt July 2, 2019. REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany
A general view of buildings by the Nile River in Cairo, Egypt July 2, 2019. REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany

Egypt’s non-oil private sector activity neared growth territory in June as new business expanded for the first time in seven months amid easing COVID-19 measures, a survey showed on Tuesday.

IHS Markit’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbed to 49.9, up from 48.6 in May and just below the 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction.

“Firms often noted a rise in tourist numbers as foreign travel opened up, as well as an improvement in export orders,” IHS Markit said, Reuters reported.

Output and new orders increased for the first time since November 2020, with both subindexes registering 50.2, up from 47.9 and 47.7 in May, respectively.

The non-oil private sector as a whole began contracting in December, ending a three-month expansion, as a resurgence in coronavirus cases dampened demand.

Inflation in input costs continued to accelerate in June, with the input prices subindex rising to a nearly two-year high of 55.9, compared to 55.2 in May.

“Commodity prices, particularly metals and plastics, drove a steep increase in purchasing costs,” said IHS Markit economist David Owen.

Firms again chose to absorb increasing cost burdens rather than passing them on to customers, as the increase in output prices slowed to a three-month low of 51.0.

Employment continued to fall, but at the softest rate since March, up to 48.7 from 48.3 in May. Many firms chose not to replace voluntary leavers, though this was partly offset by an uptick in hires due to rising demand.

“It was the Employment Index that held back the headline figure as job numbers continued to fall overall,” Owen said.

Expectations for future output remained strong, easing to 74.1 after soaring to 79.1 in May.



Türkiye Cenbank Cuts Rates by 250 Points to 45% as Expected

14 January 2025, Türkiye, Istanbul: A man seen rowing his boat along the Moda beach. Photo: Onur Dogman/SOPA Images via ZUMA Press Wire/dpa
14 January 2025, Türkiye, Istanbul: A man seen rowing his boat along the Moda beach. Photo: Onur Dogman/SOPA Images via ZUMA Press Wire/dpa
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Türkiye Cenbank Cuts Rates by 250 Points to 45% as Expected

14 January 2025, Türkiye, Istanbul: A man seen rowing his boat along the Moda beach. Photo: Onur Dogman/SOPA Images via ZUMA Press Wire/dpa
14 January 2025, Türkiye, Istanbul: A man seen rowing his boat along the Moda beach. Photo: Onur Dogman/SOPA Images via ZUMA Press Wire/dpa

Türkiye's central bank cut its key interest rate by 250 basis points to 45% as expected on Thursday, carrying on an easing cycle it launched last month alongside a decline in annual inflation that is expected to continue.

The central bank indicated it would continue to ease policy in the months ahead, noting that it anticipated a rise in trend inflation in January, when economists expect a higher minimum wage to lift the monthly price readings, Reuters reported.
In a slight change to its guidance, the bank said it will maintain a tight stance "until price stability is achieved via a sustained decline in inflation."
Last month, it said it would be maintained until "a significant and sustained decline in the underlying trend of monthly inflation is observed and inflation expectations converge to the projected forecast range."
In a Reuters poll, all 13 respondents forecast a cut to 45% from 47.5% in the one-week repo rate. They expect it to hit 30% by year end, according to the poll median.
In December, the central bank cut rates for the first time after 18-month tightening effort that reversed years of unorthodox economic policies and easy money championed by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has since supported the steps.
To tackle inflation that has soared for years, the bank had raised its policy rate by 4,150 basis points in total since mid-2023 and kept it at 50% for eight months before beginning easing.
Annual inflation dipped to 44.38% last month in what the central bank believes is a sustained fall toward a 5% target over a few more years. It topped 75% in May last year.
"While inflation expectations and pricing behavior tend to improve, they continue to pose risks to the disinflation process," the bank's policy committee said after its rate decision.
A 30% administered rise in the minimum wage for 2025 was lower than workers had requested, though it is expected to boost monthly inflation readings this month and next, economists say.
The expected January inflation rise "is mainly driven by services items with time-dependent pricing and backward indexation," the bank said.
The central bank has eight monetary policy meetings set for this year, down from 12 last year.