48 Hours on Turkey’s Roller Coaster Currency Markets

A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey September 27, 2021. REUTERS/Cagla Gurdogan
A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey September 27, 2021. REUTERS/Cagla Gurdogan
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48 Hours on Turkey’s Roller Coaster Currency Markets

A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey September 27, 2021. REUTERS/Cagla Gurdogan
A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey September 27, 2021. REUTERS/Cagla Gurdogan

Turkey's financial markets saw their wildest 48 hours in decades after a plunge in the lira forced the government into a radical new plan to convince Turks to stick with the currency.

Incentives include a promise to hand out money if the country's inflation rate continues to exceed banks' savings rates, the removal of a withholding tax normally charged on the government's domestic bonds and an increase in private pension contributions.

The lira had threatened to spin out of control having lost more than half of its value since the central bank began slashing interest rates in September. The new plan triggered a 32% rebound on the view that Turks are less likely to panic and convert all their lira into dollars or gold for now, according to Reuters.

The jump has put the currency on course for its second best week in recent memory with only a 33% gain in 2001 surpassing it.

Currency experts caution that it has happened at the quietest time of the year in FX markets meaning there has been little resistance to the moves.

It also meant any trader who was shorting the currency - or betting it would continue to fall - would have been forced to quickly close their bets to prevent major losses.

Many of those bets are made using currency swaps, so in the mass scramble to safety the swap rates spiked.

The rebound would have been amplified because most big banks and traders have closed positions ahead of the Christmas break at the end of the week, meaning reduced volumes.

Refinitiv data, which covers a select group of platforms, shows trading volumes over the last two days of 34,000 and 41,000 lots, some of the lowest of the year.

The main FX market lira volatility gauges were already at record highs after the lira hit record lows last week but they rose further after the lira saw one of its biggest intraday swings - 55% at is most extreme - yet.

The country's main stock market was also forced to halt trading repeatedly as stocks winced at the sharp jump in the currency. Istanbul's main bourse (.XU100) is down over 13% since Monday, putting it on course for its worst week since the 2008 financial crisis.



Türkiye's Central Bank Lifts 2026 Inflation Forecasts

Türkiye's Central Bank headquarters is seen in Ankara, Türkiye in this January 24, 2014 file photo. REUTERS/Umit Bektas
Türkiye's Central Bank headquarters is seen in Ankara, Türkiye in this January 24, 2014 file photo. REUTERS/Umit Bektas
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Türkiye's Central Bank Lifts 2026 Inflation Forecasts

Türkiye's Central Bank headquarters is seen in Ankara, Türkiye in this January 24, 2014 file photo. REUTERS/Umit Bektas
Türkiye's Central Bank headquarters is seen in Ankara, Türkiye in this January 24, 2014 file photo. REUTERS/Umit Bektas

Türkiye's central bank on Thursday increased its estimates for inflation as officials try to rein in soaring price increases that have weighed on the economy for years.

The official inflation rate is now seen falling to between 15 and 21 percent by the end of this year, up from a previous forecast of 13 to 19 percent.

"We have increased our forecast range because of better visibility on certain risks," the central bank's governor Fatih Karahan said in a statement, without further detail, Reuters reported.

The forecast would still be a sharp decline from the annual inflation rate of 30.7 percent in January, following years of interest rate hikes in a bid to slow runaway price increases.

However, the official figures are disputed by ENAG, a group of independent economists that publishes its own data every month, with the organisation saying year-on-year inflation stood at 53.4 percent in January.

Türkiye has experienced double-digit inflation since 2019, making life increasingly more expensive for millions of people, after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ordered interest rate cuts in a bid to spur growth.

The cuts sent the lira plunging on currency markets, further fuelling inflation and leading Erdogan to reverse his unorthodox policy in 2023.

But in January the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to 37 percent, citing a continued slowing of price increases.

 

 

 

 


Mawani Reports 2.01% Increase in Container Throughput for January 2026

Mawani Reports 2.01% Increase in Container Throughput for January 2026
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Mawani Reports 2.01% Increase in Container Throughput for January 2026

Mawani Reports 2.01% Increase in Container Throughput for January 2026

Ports overseen by the Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) reported a 2.01% increase in container handling for January 2026, totaling 738,111 TEUs, up from 723,571 TEUs in January 2025. Transshipment containers rose significantly by 22.44%, reaching 184,019 TEUs compared to 150,295 TEUs the previous year.

However, the number of imported containers decreased by 3.23% to 284,375 TEUs, and exported containers dropped by 3.47% to 269,717 TEUs year-over-year, SPA reported.

Passenger numbers surged by 42.27%, totaling 143,566 passengers compared to 100,909 last year. Vehicle volumes increased by 3.31% to 109,097, and the ports received 886,908 heads of livestock, a 49.86% increase from the same period in 2025.

In terms of cargo tonnage, liquid bulk cargo rose by 0.28% to 14,102,495 tons, general cargo totaled 839,987 tons, and solid bulk cargo reached 4,263,168 tons. The total tonnage handled was 19,205,650 tons, reflecting a 3.04% decrease from the previous year. Vessel traffic recorded 1,121 ships, a slight decrease of 1.75%.

This increase in container throughput supports trade, stimulates the maritime transport industry, and enhances supply chains and food security. These achievements align with the National Transport and Logistics Strategy, reinforcing Saudi Arabia's position as a global logistics hub.

In 2025, Mawani ports achieved a 10.58% increase in total handled containers, reaching 8,317,235 TEUs, while transshipment containers for the year rose by 11.78% to 1,927,348 TEUs.


Oil Prices Edge Lower as IEA Reduces Demand Forecast

Oil platforms and pumpjacks at Lake Maracaibo, in Cabimas, Venezuela, January 26, 2026. REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/File Photo
Oil platforms and pumpjacks at Lake Maracaibo, in Cabimas, Venezuela, January 26, 2026. REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/File Photo
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Oil Prices Edge Lower as IEA Reduces Demand Forecast

Oil platforms and pumpjacks at Lake Maracaibo, in Cabimas, Venezuela, January 26, 2026. REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/File Photo
Oil platforms and pumpjacks at Lake Maracaibo, in Cabimas, Venezuela, January 26, 2026. REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/File Photo

Oil prices slipped on Thursday as investors weighed the International Energy Agency's lowering of its global oil demand forecast for 2026 against potential escalation of US-Iran tensions.

Brent crude oil futures were down 19 cents, or 0.27%, at $69.21 a barrel by 1232 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 8 cents, or 0.12%, to $64.55.

Global oil demand will rise more slowly than previously expected this year, the IEA said on Thursday while projecting a sizeable surplus despite outages that cut supply in January.

The Brent and WTI benchmarks reversed gains to turn negative after the IEA's monthly report, having derived support earlier from concerns over the US-Iran backdrop.

US President Donald Trump said after talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday that they had yet to reach a definitive agreement on how to move forward with Iran but that negotiations with Tehran would continue.

Trump had said on Tuesday that he was considering sending a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East if a deal is not reached with Iran. The date and venue of the next round of talks have yet to be announced.

A hefty build in US crude inventories had capped the early price gains. US crude inventories rose by 8.5 million barrels to 428.8 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said, far exceeding the 793,000 increase expected by analysts in a Reuters poll.

US refinery utilization rates dropped by 1.1 percentage points in the week to 89.4%, EIA data showed.

On the supply side, Russia's seaborne oil products exports in January rose by 0.7% from December to 9.12 million metric tons on high fuel output and a seasonal drop in domestic demand, data from industry sources and Reuters calculations showed.