Lebanon: How Will Vote Impact Crisis-hit Economy?

Lebanese policeman stand outside the parliament building in downtown Beirut, Lebanon October 17, 2017. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
Lebanese policeman stand outside the parliament building in downtown Beirut, Lebanon October 17, 2017. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
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Lebanon: How Will Vote Impact Crisis-hit Economy?

Lebanese policeman stand outside the parliament building in downtown Beirut, Lebanon October 17, 2017. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
Lebanese policeman stand outside the parliament building in downtown Beirut, Lebanon October 17, 2017. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir

The Lebanese parliament voted in on Sunday will have to tackle overdue reforms required for international assistance the cash-strapped country desperately needs.

After Lebanon struck a conditional deal with the International Monetary Fund for a $3 billion aid package, AFP looks at the challenges that await incoming lawmakers in a country where there is little consensus on a roadmap for financial recovery.

- How bad is the crisis? -

Since 2019, Lebanon has suffered an unprecedented economic decline caused by decades of mismanagement and corruption.

The World Bank last year said Lebanon was likely to rank among the world's worst financial crises since the mid-19th century.

The state's bankruptcy has hampered imports of basic items including food, medicine and fuel.

Starved of hydrocarbons, the country's power stations have scaled down their operations to a near minimum. Power cuts can last up to 23 hours a day, forcing residents to rely on expensive private generators to keep the lights on.

The Lebanese pound, pegged at 1,507 to the dollar since 1997, has lost more than 90 percent of its value on the black market.

More than 80 percent of people have fallen into poverty, according to the United Nations.

The monthly minimum wage, once worth $450, is now roughly equal to $25, and inflation has reached triple digits.

The situation is made worse by informal banking controls that have gradually tightened since they were first put in place in 2019.

Depositors are denied access to foreign currency savings and forced to withdraw their money in Lebanese pounds at an exchange rate set by the central bank that is far below the market price.

- Why is the IMF deal crucial? -

The IMF last month announced the conditional agreement for aid to help Lebanon emerge from financial ruin.

However, final IMF approval for the 46-month financing program is contingent on timely implementation of critical reforms long demanded by Lebanon's international donors, the global lender said.

The overdue reforms have been stymied by political divisions leading to deadlock in both parliament and government while the country sinks deeper into poverty.

"Lebanon has to show commitment and establish credibility in regards to reforms before the international community can commit to any financial support," Deputy Prime Minister Saade Chami told AFP.

"The ball is in our court."

Prime Minister Najib Mikati has said there is "no choice" for Lebanon other than an IMF deal.

"Carrying out the required actions will bring solutions faster" for Lebanon, Mikati said, relaying a message from IMF representatives.

- What must happen next? -

Chami, who heads Lebanon's delegation in IMF talks, said that the new parliament will have to tackle four urgent tasks.

It will have to set a draft 2022 annual budget, which is already overdue, and pass a capital control law that formalizes restrictions imposed by banks on deposits, Chami said.

The legislature will also have to approve two amendments to meet IMF demands, he said.

One would affect banking secrecy laws that have hampered attempts to conduct financial audits of the central bank and other institutions.

Parliament will also have to amend its bank restructuring law, according to Chami, to reorganize a bloated financial sector that has lost the confidence of depositors and investors.

"Failure to do that will have negative implications on the IMF deal and the economic situation," Chami said.

Lebanon, which defaulted on its debt in March 2020, estimates the total financial losses for the state, central bank and commercial banks at $69 billion. This number was the basis for the IMF negotiations.

Setting up a legal framework to reform and restructure the banking sector will be among the new parliament's major tests, given the shared interests between Lebanon's political and financial elite, said Sami Nader, director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs.



How Trump’s Decisions Reshaped Syria

A photo of US President Donald Trump meeting Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Washington on Nov. 10 (AFP)
A photo of US President Donald Trump meeting Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Washington on Nov. 10 (AFP)
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How Trump’s Decisions Reshaped Syria

A photo of US President Donald Trump meeting Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Washington on Nov. 10 (AFP)
A photo of US President Donald Trump meeting Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Washington on Nov. 10 (AFP)

In a crowded regional and international landscape shaped by overlapping security, strategic, economic, and political pressures, the administration of US President Donald Trump has moved since its return to the White House in January 2025 to recalibrate its approach to Syria.

After years of US policy marked by hesitation and competing agendas, particularly under the administrations of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, Washington is now pursuing a more direct and openly pragmatic course, one focused on achieving tangible results on the ground and managing delicate balances, rather than ideological commitments or long-term strategic gambles.

The shift reflects profound changes inside Syria itself, led by the collapse of the former regime and the emergence of a new government seeking to consolidate domestic legitimacy and secure international recognition.

These developments coincide with the persistent threat posed by ISIS, a retreat in Iranian influence, and the expanding regional roles of Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Qatar.

Within this evolving landscape, Washington is repositioning its policy in line with what officials describe as Trump’s Middle East doctrine, centered on enforcing stability, limiting the costs of direct military involvement, and opening pathways for reconstruction, development, and investment.

Interests before ideology

Commenting on this shift, Firas Fahham, a researcher at the Abaad Studies Center, said President Trump’s policy toward Syria could be described as “decidedly pragmatic,” focusing primarily on international and economic interests while setting aside the ideological or intellectual background of Syria’s new government.

Fahham said the central pillar of the emerging convergence between Washington and Damascus was preventing the return of Iranian influence to Syria, a goal that sits at the top of the current US administration’s priorities.

He added that this approach could not be separated from the positions of Arab states allied with the United States, which have openly supported the new Syrian government, led by Saudi Arabia, followed by Türkiye and Qatar.

Fahham said the Trump administration had shown a willingness to respond to these positions, viewing them as a key foundation for rebuilding regional alliances.

Comparing the approach with previous administrations, Fahham said the policies of Obama and Biden had been closer to allowing Iran a free hand in the region and supporting minority influence, particularly through close cooperation with the Syrian Democratic Forces, known as the SDF.

He said this had complicated the landscape and weakened prospects for establishing a strong central state capable of maintaining security and preventing the return of extremist groups.

From Riyadh to Washington...turning points

Fahham traced key milestones in Trump’s new policy, saying the starting point came during meetings held in Riyadh in June, when the US president, at the request of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, announced the lifting of sanctions on Syria.

He described the move as the first positive signal from Washington toward Damascus. This was followed by a trilateral meeting bringing together Trump, the Saudi Crown Prince, and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, during which the US president offered notable praise for his Syrian counterpart, reflecting Washington’s desire for political openness.

The most important moment, Fahham said, came at the Washington summit held in November, when Trump received President al-Sharaa at the White House in what he described as a pivotal turning point.

Following the meeting, the US administration began concrete efforts to pressure Congress to repeal the Caesar Act, while announcing Syria’s inclusion in the international coalition against ISIS.

This, Fahham said, shifted the relationship from limited coordination to something resembling an alliance.

The SDF and the future of eastern Syria

On the issue of the Syrian Democratic Forces, Fahham said the Trump administration was dealing with the matter from a strictly practical standpoint, balancing its interests with Syria’s new government, reflected in reduced support for the SDF compared with the Biden era, and its interests with its Turkish ally.

Washington, he said, now views Damascus as the most effective actor in the fight against ISIS.

This assessment, he said, was based on recommendations from US research centers. They concluded that previous reliance on the Kurdish component alone, and practices associated with it in eastern Syria, had created a sense of grievance that ISIS later exploited for recruitment.

As a result, the administration became convinced that cooperation with Damascus was more effective.

In a related context, Fahham said Washington viewed Israeli incursions in southern Syria with dissatisfaction, considering them destabilizing and contrary to Trump’s vision for regional development.

The United States, he added, fears that weakening the Syrian government could reopen the door to renewed Iranian influence and ISIS activity.

As for the southern province of Sweida, Fahham said the US administration supports integrating the province into the state, citing remarks by US envoy Tom Barrack, who stated that decentralization had failed in the Middle East, reflecting a preference for backing a unified Syria.

A parallel reading from the military establishment

From another angle, researcher on armed groups Raed al-Hamed offered a complementary reading of the US position.

He said that although Trump, during his first term, had moved toward withdrawing forces and ending the partnership with the SDF, warnings from senior military commanders about a possible ISIS resurgence after the battle of Baghouz in March 2019 prompted him to keep about 2,000 troops in Syria.

Al-Hamed noted that the partnership with the SDF dated back to the battle of Kobani in 2015, when Washington relied on the group as a ground force.

However, he said the new policy following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and Syria’s entry into the international coalition was now based on refusing to recognize any independent entity east of the Euphrates and rejecting federal formulas similar to Iraq’s Kurdistan region.

Al-Hamed said the new policy offered no real US guarantees to the SDF in the face of Türkiye and coincided with pressure to integrate the group into Syria’s military and security institutions, in line with the vision of the Syrian government, which rejects any armed presence outside the framework of the state.

This, he said, is still rejected by the SDF as the deadline approaches for implementing the March agreement with the government in Damascus, scheduled for the end of this year.

Overall, the Syrian scene appears to have entered a pivotal phase that goes beyond traditional conflict equations, laying the groundwork for a new reality governed by the language of interests and reciprocal security arrangements.

While Washington and its regional allies, particularly Riyadh and Ankara, are betting on the ability of the new leadership in Damascus to impose stability and end years of chaos, observers say the success of this path will depend on developments on the ground in the coming months.

The ability of the “new republic” to balance the demands of internal reconciliation with the conditions of external alliances will be the decisive test in determining whether this turn truly marks the opening chapter of an end to years of US hesitation in the region.


Thousands Flock to Bethlehem to Revive Christmas Spirit after 2 Years of War in Gaza

 Palestinian scout bands parade toward the Manger Square near the Church of the Nativity, traditionally believed to be the birthplace of Jesus, on Christmas Eve, in the West Bank city of Bethlehem, Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Mahmoud Illean)
Palestinian scout bands parade toward the Manger Square near the Church of the Nativity, traditionally believed to be the birthplace of Jesus, on Christmas Eve, in the West Bank city of Bethlehem, Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Mahmoud Illean)
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Thousands Flock to Bethlehem to Revive Christmas Spirit after 2 Years of War in Gaza

 Palestinian scout bands parade toward the Manger Square near the Church of the Nativity, traditionally believed to be the birthplace of Jesus, on Christmas Eve, in the West Bank city of Bethlehem, Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Mahmoud Illean)
Palestinian scout bands parade toward the Manger Square near the Church of the Nativity, traditionally believed to be the birthplace of Jesus, on Christmas Eve, in the West Bank city of Bethlehem, Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Mahmoud Illean)

Thousands of people flocked to Bethlehem's Manger Square on Christmas Eve as families heralded a much-needed boost of holiday spirit. The giant Christmas tree that was absent during the Israel-Hamas war returned on Wednesday, overlooking a parade of scouts playing songs on bagpipes.

The city where Christians believe Jesus was born cancelled Christmas celebrations for the past two years. Manger Square had instead featured a nativity scene of baby Jesus surrounded by rubble and barbed wire in homage to the situation in Gaza, The AP news reported.

Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the top Catholic leader in the Holy Land, kicked off this year's celebrations during the traditional procession from Jerusalem to Bethlehem, calling for “a Christmas full of light.”

Arriving in Manger Square, Pizzaballa said he came bearing greetings from Gaza's tiny Christian community, where he held a pre-Christmas Mass on Sunday. Among the devastation, he saw a desire to rebuild.

“We, all together, we decide to be the light, and the light of Bethlehem is the light of the world,” he told thousands of people, Christian and Muslim.

Despite the holiday cheer, the impact of the war in the Israeli-occupied West Bank is acute, especially in Bethlehem, where around 80% of the Muslim-majority city’s residents depend upon tourism-related businesses, according to the local government.

The vast majority of people celebrating were residents, with a handful of foreigners in the crowd. But some residents said they are starting to see signs of change as tourism slowly returns.

Loss of tourism devastates Bethlehem “Today is a day of joy, a day of hope, the beginning of the return of normal life here,” said Bethlehem resident Georgette Jackaman, a tour guide who has not worked in more than two years.

She and her husband, Michael Jackaman, another guide, are from established Christian Bethlehem families that stretch back generations. This is the first real Christmas celebration for their two children, aged 2 1/2 and 10 months.

During the war, the Jackamans pivoted to create a website selling Palestinian handicrafts to try to support others who have lost their livelihoods.

During the Gaza war, the unemployment rate in the city jumped from 14% to 65%, Bethlehem Mayor Maher Nicola Canawati said earlier this month.

A visitor from France, Mona Riewer, said that “I came because I wanted to better understand what people in Palestine are going through, and you can sense people have been through a very hard time."

Although friends and family cautioned her against coming due to the volatile situation, Riewer said being in Bethlehem helped her appreciate the meaning of the holiday.

“Christmas is like hope in very dark situations, a very vulnerable child experiencing harshness,” she said.

Despite the Gaza ceasefire that began in October, tensions remain high across much of the West Bank.

Israel’s military continues to carry out frequent raids in what it says is a crackdown on militants. Attacks by Israeli settlers against Palestinians have reached their highest level since the United Nations humanitarian office started collecting data in 2006. Israel captured the West Bank in the 1967 Mideast war.

The internationally recognized Palestinian Authority has limited autonomy in parts of the territory, including Bethlehem. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is expected to attend midnight Mass for the first time in two years, the mayor said.

As poverty and unemployment have soared, about 4,000 people have left Bethlehem in search of work, the mayor said. It’s part of a worrying trend for Christians, who are leaving the region in droves.

Christians account for less than 2% of the West Bank’s roughly 3 million residents. Across the Middle East, the Christian population has steadily declined as people have fled conflict and attacks.

The beginning of a return to normal life Fadi Zoughbi, who previously worked overseeing logistics for tour groups, said his children were ecstatic to see marching bands streaming through Bethlehem's streets.

The scouts represent cities and towns across the West Bank, with Palestinian flags and tartan draped on their bagpipes, drummers spinning mallets adorned with pompoms. For the past two years, the scouts marched silently as a protest against the war.

Irene Kirmiz, who grew up in Bethlehem and now lives in Ramallah, said the scout parade is among her favorite Christmas traditions. Her 15-year-old daughter plays the tenor drum with the Ramallah scouts.

But her family had to wake up at 5 a.m. to arrive in time for the parade and waited upwards of three hours at Israeli checkpoints. The drive previously took 40 minutes without the checkpoints that have increasingly made travel difficult for Palestinians, she said.

“It's very emotional seeing people trying to bounce back, trying to celebrate peace and love,” Kirmiz said.

The Israeli Ministry of Tourism estimates 130,000 tourists will visit Israel by the end of December, including 40,000 Christians. In 2019, a banner year for tourism before the pandemic, the tourism ministry said 150,000 Christian tourists visited during Christmas week alone.

During the previous two years, the heads of churches in Jerusalem urged congregations to forgo “any unnecessarily festive activities.” They encouraged priests and the faithful to focus on Christmas’ spiritual meaning and called for “fervent prayers for a just and lasting peace for our beloved Holy Land.”


Israel Planning to Exploit Druze File to Weaken Sharaa’s Rule in Syria

Head of the Military Council, Tareq al-Shoufi, is seen with his fighters.
Head of the Military Council, Tareq al-Shoufi, is seen with his fighters.
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Israel Planning to Exploit Druze File to Weaken Sharaa’s Rule in Syria

Head of the Military Council, Tareq al-Shoufi, is seen with his fighters.
Head of the Military Council, Tareq al-Shoufi, is seen with his fighters.

After the ouster of former president Bashar al-Assad, Israel supported Druze fighters in the south, in an effort to weaken Syria’s new government under the rule of President Ahmed Al-Sharaa and thus complicate his efforts to unify the country after its long civil war, according to a Washington Post report on Tuesday.

Current and former Israeli officials said this policy was not an immediate reaction to developments, but rather the result of a pre-planning that began months before the collapse of the Assad regime.

Since 2024, Druze leaders in Israel sought out a Syrian Druze counterpart who could help lead the 700,000 Druze in Syria in case the Assad regime collapsed, two former Israeli officials directly involved in the effort said.

Tareq al-Shoufi

Israeli officials told the Washington Post that Israel turned to Tareq al-Shoufi, a former colonel in Assad’s army.

A former Israeli official recalled tapping “20 men with military experience, dishing out ranks and tasks, and beginning to work on what was called the ‘Military Council’” in the Druze stronghold of Sweida province in southern Syria.

At the time, the Military Council, led by Shoufi, enjoyed the support of Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri, a fiery, 60-year-old Venezuelan-born Druze cleric who has called for the establishment of a self-governing Druze state backed by Israel, a founding member of the council said.

One the former Israeli officials said that to help Shoufi renovate an old building as a command center and buy uniforms and basic equipment, Druze members of the Israeli security establishment funneled him $24,000 via the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

The official added that the money was meant to tide over the Council until the Assad regime fell.

SDF role

The Post revealed that the SDF played a pivotal role in supporting Druze fighters.

The former Israeli official and two Druze commanders in Syria said up to half-million dollars were separately sent by the SDF to Hijri’s forces.

The SDF also trained Druze fighters, including women, in Kurdish-controlled areas in northern Syria, with that training reportedly continuing to this day, according to a senior Kurdish official.

Arms confiscated from Hezbollah, Hamas

The Washington Post report said when the Assad regime fell on December 8, 2024, Israel sprang directly into action.

Weapons supplied to the Druze by Israel included arms previously seized by fighters from Hezbollah and Hamas. A Druze commander told the Post that they also received sniper rifles, night vision equipment and machine gun ammunition.

Israelis are also providing monthly payments between $100 to $200 to about 3,000 Druze fighters from Hijri’s forces, two Druze officials said, further demonstrating that it continues to maintain a counterweight to the central Syrian government.

‘Fluid’ situation

The report also revealed that Israel provided Druze fighters with anti-tank missiles and satellite imagery that were used during battles against Syrian government forces, giving them a clear field advantage.

Today, Israeli officials and others briefed on their thinking say the situation in Syria — and Israel’s policy toward the Druze — remain fluid, according to the Washington Post report.

Backing an independent state would create a situation where “Israel needs to now defend a population that’s 100 kilometers away from the border,” an Israeli adviser said. “If we have an interest here, it’s not to create an independent Druzistan.”

Israeli officials have also grown wary of the internal power struggles that emerged among the Syrian Druze.

In August, Hijri sought to be recognized as the sole legitimate military authority among the Syrian Druze, and the “National Guard,” a new militia led by Hijri and his son Suleiman, replaced the Military Council as the recipient of weapons from Israel, according to a Syrian Druze commanders and the two former Israeli officials directly involved.

The move led to schisms among Druze commanders.

After US President Donald Trump first shook hands with Sharaa in May, Israel in August halted the flow of weapons to the Druze, Israeli and Druze officials revealed.

Therefore, Israel’s support for the Druze is carefully calibrated.

Israeli analysts warned that propping up an autonomous Druze state or proxy militia would represent a far different mandate than cooperating with them to secure Israel’s border.

One government adviser noted that Israel did not have a “good experience in south Lebanon,” where it supported a pro-Israel militia called the South Lebanon Army for two decades before the group crumbled in the face of Hezbollah advances in 2000.

Druze state stretching to Iraq

A Western official told the Post that Hijri prepared maps of a proposed future Druze state stretching all the way to Iraq and pitched it to at least one major Western government in early 2025.

The newspaper revealed that Israel is using the Druze paper in South Syria to undermine Sharaa’s ability to centralize power.

It said Israel is practicing a “shadow” policy in Syria: planned support for minorities, limited military intervention and tactical openness to negotiation, without a clear commitment to a final political path.

The report shows that the future of Israel’s policy towards Druze in south Syria remains dependent on the ability of Sharaa’s government to consolidate its power over the entire territory, and how willing Washington is to balance its bets on Sharaa to restore stability in Syria and respond to Israeli security concerns.