Lebanon: How Will Vote Impact Crisis-hit Economy?

Lebanese policeman stand outside the parliament building in downtown Beirut, Lebanon October 17, 2017. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
Lebanese policeman stand outside the parliament building in downtown Beirut, Lebanon October 17, 2017. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
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Lebanon: How Will Vote Impact Crisis-hit Economy?

Lebanese policeman stand outside the parliament building in downtown Beirut, Lebanon October 17, 2017. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
Lebanese policeman stand outside the parliament building in downtown Beirut, Lebanon October 17, 2017. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir

The Lebanese parliament voted in on Sunday will have to tackle overdue reforms required for international assistance the cash-strapped country desperately needs.

After Lebanon struck a conditional deal with the International Monetary Fund for a $3 billion aid package, AFP looks at the challenges that await incoming lawmakers in a country where there is little consensus on a roadmap for financial recovery.

- How bad is the crisis? -

Since 2019, Lebanon has suffered an unprecedented economic decline caused by decades of mismanagement and corruption.

The World Bank last year said Lebanon was likely to rank among the world's worst financial crises since the mid-19th century.

The state's bankruptcy has hampered imports of basic items including food, medicine and fuel.

Starved of hydrocarbons, the country's power stations have scaled down their operations to a near minimum. Power cuts can last up to 23 hours a day, forcing residents to rely on expensive private generators to keep the lights on.

The Lebanese pound, pegged at 1,507 to the dollar since 1997, has lost more than 90 percent of its value on the black market.

More than 80 percent of people have fallen into poverty, according to the United Nations.

The monthly minimum wage, once worth $450, is now roughly equal to $25, and inflation has reached triple digits.

The situation is made worse by informal banking controls that have gradually tightened since they were first put in place in 2019.

Depositors are denied access to foreign currency savings and forced to withdraw their money in Lebanese pounds at an exchange rate set by the central bank that is far below the market price.

- Why is the IMF deal crucial? -

The IMF last month announced the conditional agreement for aid to help Lebanon emerge from financial ruin.

However, final IMF approval for the 46-month financing program is contingent on timely implementation of critical reforms long demanded by Lebanon's international donors, the global lender said.

The overdue reforms have been stymied by political divisions leading to deadlock in both parliament and government while the country sinks deeper into poverty.

"Lebanon has to show commitment and establish credibility in regards to reforms before the international community can commit to any financial support," Deputy Prime Minister Saade Chami told AFP.

"The ball is in our court."

Prime Minister Najib Mikati has said there is "no choice" for Lebanon other than an IMF deal.

"Carrying out the required actions will bring solutions faster" for Lebanon, Mikati said, relaying a message from IMF representatives.

- What must happen next? -

Chami, who heads Lebanon's delegation in IMF talks, said that the new parliament will have to tackle four urgent tasks.

It will have to set a draft 2022 annual budget, which is already overdue, and pass a capital control law that formalizes restrictions imposed by banks on deposits, Chami said.

The legislature will also have to approve two amendments to meet IMF demands, he said.

One would affect banking secrecy laws that have hampered attempts to conduct financial audits of the central bank and other institutions.

Parliament will also have to amend its bank restructuring law, according to Chami, to reorganize a bloated financial sector that has lost the confidence of depositors and investors.

"Failure to do that will have negative implications on the IMF deal and the economic situation," Chami said.

Lebanon, which defaulted on its debt in March 2020, estimates the total financial losses for the state, central bank and commercial banks at $69 billion. This number was the basis for the IMF negotiations.

Setting up a legal framework to reform and restructure the banking sector will be among the new parliament's major tests, given the shared interests between Lebanon's political and financial elite, said Sami Nader, director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs.



Why Is a ‘Very Close’ Iran-US Deal Taking So Long?

A man walks past Iran's national flag at the Vanak Square in Tehran on June 10, 2026. (AFP)
A man walks past Iran's national flag at the Vanak Square in Tehran on June 10, 2026. (AFP)
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Why Is a ‘Very Close’ Iran-US Deal Taking So Long?

A man walks past Iran's national flag at the Vanak Square in Tehran on June 10, 2026. (AFP)
A man walks past Iran's national flag at the Vanak Square in Tehran on June 10, 2026. (AFP)

President Donald Trump has repeatedly declared Iran and the US are on the verge of agreeing a deal to end the Middle East war, but a litany of sticking points have delayed finalizing an accord and will complicate its implementation, analysts say.

Trump has been widely mocked in US and Iran for frequently insisting an end to the conflict was imminent even as negotiations dragged on for weeks, with US network CNN saying he had used phrases like "very close to a deal" or in the "final throes" of talks on 39 occasions.

In what has become a familiar pattern, Trump on Thursday withdrew a threat of renewed strikes on Iran and said a deal could be signed in the coming days, only for Iran's foreign ministry to respond by saying it "has not reached a final conclusion on the agreement".

Arash Azizi, lecturer at Yale University, told AFP that one reason the deal has taken so long is that the Iranian side believed "they could hold out to get better terms" after not capitulating during the conflict.

Trump, meanwhile, "could hardly stomach" releasing Iran's frozen assets -- a key demand of Tehran -- and also risked facing accusations the accord would be more favorable to Iran than the 2015 nuclear deal he pulled out of during his first term, he added.

Trump "had to accept that his initial gambit of causing an Iranian capitulation by sheer military force didn't work and he had to settle for something much less", said Azizi.

Both Iran and the United States would appear to have vested interests in ending a conflict that saw five weeks of all-out war, paused by an uneasy ceasefire on April 8.

The US-Israeli war has become increasingly unpopular in the US, even among the president's core supporters, with Trump mindful of the looming US midterm elections.

A deal could also see Tehran win the security guarantees and recognition it has long craved from the US and ensure the personal safety of its own leadership, after former supreme leader Ali Khamenei and several top officials were killed in the first phase of the war.

But any negotiation -- in this case mediated by Pakistan as well as Qatar -- between two foes who have been sworn enemies since shortly after the 1979 revolution was never going to be easy.

- 'Frozen war' with 'flare-ups' -

Iran's new leadership structure after the killing of Ali Khamenei has likely proved problematic, with the extent of the power wielded by his successor and son Mojtaba Khamenei still unclear. He is said by Iranian officials to have been wounded and has yet to appear in public.

Trump's own pronouncements have also changed with startling rapidity, most notably on Thursday when he threatened to hit Iran "very hard" before predicting that a "great settlement" was near.

Trump, in a Truth Social post Friday, appeared to again be losing patience, describing the Iranian side as "very dishonorable people to deal with".

"Trump has neither a clear strategic objective nor a credible exit strategy for extricating the United States from the war with Iran," said Ali Alfoneh, a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute (AGSI).

He said a key obstacle was Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has opposed any Iran-US deal and on Friday again vowed "Iran will not have nuclear weapons".

The Iranian authorities, meanwhile, have "sensed Trump's reluctance to enter the midterm election season burdened by an unpopular war", and seek above all an enduring peace without US aggression, said Alfoneh.

"The conflict has already taken on the characteristics of a frozen war, punctuated by periodic flare-ups," he added.

- 'Tremendous leverage' -

Iran has always insisted that any deal include Lebanon, where Israel has been attacking the Tehran-backed group Hezbollah, which has been further weakened but not eradicated.

A White House official said on Friday that Iran had agreed to dismantle its nuclear program, which the West fears is aimed at making a nuclear weapon -- a commitment that has yet to be confirmed by Tehran.

Critical will be the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz shipping bottleneck, which Iran blockaded at the start of the war in a move that caused global energy prices to surge.

Iran "will not forget the tremendous leverage it gained by closing it," Thomas Juneau, professor at the University of Ottawa, wrote in a study for London-based think tank Chatham House.

"It will not hesitate to consider closing the Strait again if it perceives it to be necessary."


What to Know About the Growing Opposition to Trump Family-Linked Resort in Albania

A drone view shows people during a protest against a luxury resort, a plan by a company linked to Donald Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, on an environmentally sensitive part of the Adriatic coast, in Zvernec near Vlora, Albania June 6, 2026. (Reuters)
A drone view shows people during a protest against a luxury resort, a plan by a company linked to Donald Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, on an environmentally sensitive part of the Adriatic coast, in Zvernec near Vlora, Albania June 6, 2026. (Reuters)
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What to Know About the Growing Opposition to Trump Family-Linked Resort in Albania

A drone view shows people during a protest against a luxury resort, a plan by a company linked to Donald Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, on an environmentally sensitive part of the Adriatic coast, in Zvernec near Vlora, Albania June 6, 2026. (Reuters)
A drone view shows people during a protest against a luxury resort, a plan by a company linked to Donald Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, on an environmentally sensitive part of the Adriatic coast, in Zvernec near Vlora, Albania June 6, 2026. (Reuters)

A massive coastal development project linked to Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of US President Donald Trump, is facing growing resistance from protesters in Albania.

Thousands of protesters are taking to the streets in nightly protests, blowing whistles and holding up cardboard cut-outs of flamingos — one of the protected migratory bird species that could see their habitats threatened by the proposed luxury resort.

The government says the development on the Adriatic coast would be transformational for the former communist nation as it seeks to enter the high-end tourism market and pushes for European Union membership.

But the venture, spanning an abandoned island and a nearby stretch of seafront on Albania’s southern coast, has drawn opposition from environmental campaigners and critics of longtime Socialist Prime Minister Edi Rama.

Outside forces blamed for anger

In an interview with The Associated Press, Rama vowed not to “step back” from the development and defended his administration's environmental record. He insisted the protests were being encouraged by malicious cyber activists overseas.

“There is a lot of manipulation. There are a lot of half-truths that become bigger and bigger lies by the hour,” Rama said, accusing Iran of targeting his government.

The allegations, which Rama has made for several years, followed a dispute with Albania after it sheltered members of an Iranian opposition group in 2022. Iran has denied the claims.

Despite Rama's defense of the development, the protests have gathered pace, with supporters in Albanian communities in neighboring Greece and other European countries also holding rallies.

A drone view of protesters waving Albanian National flags during a protest against a luxury resort, a plan by a company linked to US President Donald Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, on an environmentally sensitive part of the Adriatic coast, in Tirana, Albania, June 10, 2026. (Reuters)

Kushner and Ivanka Trump found the site on a barefoot hike

The luxury project has two components: a coastal development in the Narta Lagoon area, which is a wildlife reserve, and a smaller resort on the nearby uninhabited island of Sazan, a communist-era military base.

The planned development of hotels, apartments, villas and a marina is linked to Kushner and Trump’s daughter, Ivanka Trump. An investment firm linked to Kushner has been granted special investor status by Albanian authorities.

In an interview this week with US podcaster David Senra, Ivanka Trump said they discovered the site by accident.

“We were on a friend’s boat, and we stopped for a swim. Effectively, that’s how we found it,” she said. “We swam to the island. We went on a hike, barefoot all the way up to the top, and we were just captivated.”

Harsh communist rule and pristine beaches

Albania has 450 kilometers (280 miles) of coast that remained largely underdeveloped during decades of harsh communist rule.

Protest groups fear sections of that pristine coastline could be snapped up by powerful investors. And public anger grew after video showed an activist being dragged by a private security guard while demonstrating at the site.

The development is planned within a nature reserve and one of Albania’s most valuable biodiversity areas, a key stopover for migratory birds along the Adriatic coast.

Since late May, excavators and other heavy machinery have entered the area, opening access routes, digging into the sand, clearing land among pine trees and installing fencing.

Environmental groups from Albania and elsewhere in Europe condemned the work, with one prominent local group charging that long-protected habitats are being “irreversibly destroyed.”

Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama speaks during an interview with The Associated Press in Tirana, Albania, Tuesday, June 9, 2026. (APi)

A multibillion-dollar bonanza?

Albania’s state anti-corruption agency has confirmed it opened an investigation related to the project but has not disclosed details.

The government says the land earmarked for the project is privately owned. But competing claims have emerged questioning the privatization.

Rama has committed to the venture, saying it would align with Albania’s ambition to become a major global tourism destination.

“Albania should not be a country that fears an extraordinary project like this one, where exceptional partners have come together to invest 4 billion euros ($4.6 billion),” Rama said.

He added: “There is no chance for this investment to stop as long as I am here.”

However, the demise of a similar project in Serbia offers a cautionary tale. In November, Serbia's Parliament passed a special law to enable the building of a luxury complex in the capital, Belgrade, to be financed by an investment company linked to Kushner.

The following month, Serbia's prosecutor for organized crime charged four people, including a government minister, with abuse of office and falsifying of documents to help pave the way for the development.

Kushner later withdrew from the planned multimillion investment that would have replaced a sprawling bombed-out military complex, a designated heritage zone whose legal protection was lifted by the former officials now on trial.


Kharg... A Pivotal Island for Iran

This handout image taken by the European Space Agency (ESA) captured by the Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellite shows a view of Iran's Kharg Island. (Photo by EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY / AFP)
This handout image taken by the European Space Agency (ESA) captured by the Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellite shows a view of Iran's Kharg Island. (Photo by EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY / AFP)
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Kharg... A Pivotal Island for Iran

This handout image taken by the European Space Agency (ESA) captured by the Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellite shows a view of Iran's Kharg Island. (Photo by EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY / AFP)
This handout image taken by the European Space Agency (ESA) captured by the Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellite shows a view of Iran's Kharg Island. (Photo by EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY / AFP)

Islands under Iran's control, spanning from the northern Arabian Gulf to the entrance of the Strait of Hormuz, have returned to the forefront of the war as part of direct military calculations.

These islands gain additional importance as potential points for engagement in a new phase of the war, shifting the battlefield to energy warfare and transit control.

At the heart of this map stands Kharg Island, which US President Donald Trump had threatened to seize, considering it the lifeline for Iranian oil exports. Meanwhile, other islands serve functions of controlling transit, military fortification, and advanced strategic positioning on one of the world's most sensitive maritime passages.

Kharg Island is an 8-kilometer-long coral island in the Arabian Gulf, located approximately 43 kilometers off the mainland and about 500 kilometers northwest of the Strait of Hormuz. It is the terminus for pipelines coming from Iran's oil fields in the central and western parts of the country. It was established by the giant American oil company Amoco and seized by Iran during the 1979 revolution.

Kharg Island occupies an exceptional position in Iran's strategic structure, serving as the lifeline for the majority of Iranian crude exports. It is located in the northern Gulf off the Iranian coast, making it close enough to the Iranian mainland to remain under the umbrella of its fires, missile, and drone capabilities.

Its importance stems primarily from its direct economic function. The island houses the terminal through which almost all of Iran's oil exports pass, securing the largest share of the state's crude revenues. During the ongoing war, it quickly became a prominent target in military discussions, as striking it would impact one of the state's most vital funding sources.

The Most Important Gateway

The island developed during Iran's oil boom in the 1960s and 1970s because large parts of the Iranian coast were too shallow to allow supertankers to dock. Hence, with its deep harbors and terminals, the island became the most important gateway for Iranian oil exports, especially to Asian markets, particularly China.

Theoretically, any American control could choke a vital financial artery for the regime and give Washington leverage to compel Tehran to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. Moreover, due to its location, the island could, in such a scenario, turn into an advanced platform for military pressure on the Iranian mainland. However, this temptation is met with significant obstacles.

Seizure would require stationing American forces on a small island very close to the Iranian coast, meaning within range of Iranian drones, missiles, and mobile artillery, and the potential use of mines and fast boats. Thus, an attacking force could quickly become a fixed target vulnerable to attrition.

Furthermore, retaining the island after forces enter it would require constant air cover, advanced air defense systems, and protected supply lines by sea and air. Tehran has increased its fortifications on Kharg in recent weeks, sending additional personnel and deploying air defense assets, alongside reports of mines around the island.

Significant Strategic Advantages

It also threatened to target American forces if they attempted to enter the island, and to strike the energy infrastructure of companies dealing with the United States if its oil facilities were targeted.

The island includes storage tanks, housing for thousands of workers, and has a clear civilian presence. It also contains an old Portuguese fortress and the ruins of an early Christian monastery in the Gulf.

The Washington Post said on Thursday that for the US, capturing the island would give the United States significant strategic advantages, including potentially choking off Tehran’s ability to pay its military.

Despite intensive strikes launched by the United States and Israel against targets inside Iran, Kharg Island, the most important center for Iranian oil exports, has remained off the list of these strikes so far; experts warn that striking it could cause a catastrophic collapse in global markets.

Threat to Strike the Island

Trump had repeatedly threatened to launch strikes on the island's oil infrastructure if Tehran did not stop its attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, a warning observers said could heighten market tensions already suffering unprecedented supply disruptions.

Trump had stated during the bombing of Iran that the United States had completely destroyed military targets on the island. He added that the American strikes had not targeted the oil infrastructure on Kharg Island, but he wrote that if Iran or anyone else does anything to interfere with the free and safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, he will immediately reconsider this decision.

Centcom said US forces had struck more than 90 Iranian military targets on the island, “while preserving the oil infrastructure.”

The regional military command unit said it had destroyed naval mine storage facilities, missile storage bunkers and numerous other military sites.