Asian Stocks Sink again as Inflation Panic Grips World Markets

A pedestrian walks past a stock indicator displaying the Nikkei 225 of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (C, top) and other world stock markets in Tokyo on 16 August 2021. AFP
A pedestrian walks past a stock indicator displaying the Nikkei 225 of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (C, top) and other world stock markets in Tokyo on 16 August 2021. AFP
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Asian Stocks Sink again as Inflation Panic Grips World Markets

A pedestrian walks past a stock indicator displaying the Nikkei 225 of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (C, top) and other world stock markets in Tokyo on 16 August 2021. AFP
A pedestrian walks past a stock indicator displaying the Nikkei 225 of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (C, top) and other world stock markets in Tokyo on 16 August 2021. AFP

Equity markets tumbled again Tuesday to extend a global rout fueled by fears of recession, with the Federal Reserve preparing to ramp up interest rates as inflation shows no sign of slowing.

Panic has swept through trading floors since data on Friday showed US consumer prices rising at their fastest pace in a generation owing to a spike in energy and food costs caused by the Ukraine war, China's lockdowns and supply chain snarls, AFP reported.

The pain has been felt across all assets, with bitcoin threatening to fall below $20,000 for the first time since December 2020, currencies retreating against the dollar, and even safe-haven plays including the yen and gold feeling the squeeze.

Investors are now laser-focused on Wednesday's Fed interest rate decision as it struggles to walk a fine line between reining in inflation and trying to keep the economy on track.

Danielle DiMartino Booth, at Quill Intelligence, said: "While tightening into a recession is no easy task, the Federal Reserve must indicate a willingness to raise interest rates by more than a half-percentage point at upcoming meetings if inflation continues to surprise to the upside."

But JP Morgan Asset Management's warned: "While there is no doubt that inflation is a considerable challenge for the US at this point, slamming on the brakes too hard risks pushing the economy off its track."

Before Friday's news, expectations had been for a 50-point basis hike and a signal that more of the same was to come at the next few meetings. But now analysts say there is a one-in-three chance officials could announce a three-quarter point increase, with some even predicting a one percentage point hike.

That has ramped up fears that the world's top economy is heading for a recession, and on Monday Wall Street plunged with the broad-based S&P 500 sinking into a bear market after dropping more than 20 percent from its recent peak.

And the selling continued in Asia, with Sydney tanking five percent at one point as it reopened after a holiday weekend to catch up with Monday's drama, while Tokyo was off around two percent and Wellington more than three percent.

Hong Kong, Shanghai, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei and Manila were also deep in the red.

Commentators warned that the Fed was in a tough place on what to do Wednesday. A decision to lift rates more than 0.50 percentage points could signal its determination to finally defeat inflation but also hit its credibility as it confuses officials' signals to traders.

"Once the Fed starts moving in 75s it would be hard to stop, and the combination of this and the Fed’s outcome-based approach to inflation feels like it could be a recipe for recession," said Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha and Peter Williams.

Bets on a more aggressive approach have sent the dollar spiraling higher against other currencies, hitting a 24-year high Monday against the yen and a record peak on the Indian rupee.

Both units have clawed back some of the losses but remain under severe pressure, while the euro is in danger of hitting a two-decade low. The pound is at its weakest level in two years.

And bitcoin remains in the firing line, hitting $20,823 for the first time since December 2020, with selling compounded by news that crypto lending platform Celsius Network had paused withdrawals owing to volatile conditions. The announcement raised worries about a possible contagion for other firms.

- Key figures at around 0250 GMT -
Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 2.0 percent at 26,446.82 (break)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.7 percent at 20,926.15

Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.5 percent at 3237.98

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 134.40 yen from 134.42 yen late Monday

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0408 from $1.0412

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2142 from $1.2136

Euro/pound: DOWN at 85.71 pence from 85.76 pence

Brent North Sea crude: UP 0.2 percent at $122.45 per barrel

West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.2 percent at $121.13 per barrel

New York - Dow: DOWN 2.8 percent at 30,516.74 (close)

London - FTSE 100: DOWN 1.5 percent at 7,205.81 (close)



Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
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Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)

Iraq produces more than 5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), Oil Minister Basim Mohammed told state news agency INA on Saturday.

According to Reuters, Iraq is pushing for a higher OPEC production quota as the economic fallout from the Iran war and new investment by oil majors increase pressure on Baghdad to boost output, potentially putting it at odds with the producer group.

The conflict has hit Iraq particularly hard, forcing major export cuts and depriving the state of oil revenue, which accounted for 88% of government income last year.


IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
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IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)

Central bankers around the world would need to consider any slowdown in AI-driven growth as they assess steps in their fight against inflation, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Friday.

Georgieva said concerns about dependence on the AI investment boom and high valuations were impacting markets around the world.

"Things are going up and down, and this is likely to continue," she told an audience at IMF headquarters in Washington, adding that the volatility would complicate the job of central banks at a time when risks to price stability had been growing.

A steep rout in technology stocks on Thursday rippled through markets on fears that ⁠the Democrats' victory ⁠in the US midterm elections would increase regulatory scrutiny of AI and slow the data center build-out, sending investors to the safety of bonds.

The political jitters are hitting an AI trade already on shaky footing due to worry about return on massive spending on AI-related infrastructure, with the meltdown spurring margin calls and spooking retail investors and hedge ⁠funds alike.

Georgieva said the AI investment boom was lifting growth in some countries, helping to offset a negative oil-supply shock triggered by the war in the Middle East, but it was also adding to inflationary pressures and financial stability concerns.

The IMF last month flagged significant growth and financial stability risks from a potential ending of the AI investment boom, among other factors, including a prolonged Middle East war. At the time, it warned that a steep drop in AI investment could lead to a sharp fall in asset prices, ultimately cutting global GDP ⁠by 1.1% ⁠by 2028, including a 1.8% drop in US output.

Georgieva did not repeat the downside forecast on Friday, but acknowledged the recent market volatility.

"Should there be a slowdown in the AI-driven growth impulse, it would need to be factored in as central banks assess the necessary steps in the fight against stubborn inflation," she said.

Democrats are planning to unleash a flood of new legislation targeting artificial intelligence systems and data-center development when they take control of the US Congress in January, Reuters reported on Friday, citing congressional aides and advocates.

That would mark a sharp shift from the Republican-led Congress, where lawmakers largely focused on promoting AI development and declined to pass legislation restricting the technology.


World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
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World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)

World food prices edged lower in October as weaker import demand contributed to monthly declines in cereal, dairy and meat prices, but were still nearly 6% higher than a year earlier, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said on Friday.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices for a basket of food commodities, ‌averaged 133.9 points ‌in October, down from a revised ‌135.6 ⁠in September.

The index ⁠was 5.9% higher than a year earlier, but remained 16.4% below its March 2022 peak.

FAO's cereal price index fell 4.5% from September and was 12.6% lower than a year ago, as wheat and maize quotations declined. Wheat prices eased on weak import demand ⁠and improved production prospects, especially in Argentina.

"Expectations of ‌easing constraints on Black ‌Sea export flows added to the downward pressure on prices, ‌although continued disruptions to Black Sea logistics limited the decline," ‌FAO said in a statement.

Maize prices also eased after reaching a three-year high in September, pressured by the US harvest, expectations of ample supplies in South America and renewed ‌prospects of easing tensions in the Black Sea region.

Vegetable oil prices edged up 0.3%, ⁠as ⁠higher soybean and sunflower oil prices more than offset a fall in rapeseed oil prices.

Sugar prices rose 6.6%, their fourth straight monthly increase, to the highest level since December 2024, after rainfall disrupted harvesting in Brazil. They were now 28.8% above a year ago.

The dairy index fell 1.1%, as lower butter and cheese prices linked to ample supplies and subdued demand outweighed gains in milk powder.

The meat index declined 1.2%, while still slightly above its year-earlier level, as ovine and bovine meat prices fell.