عربي English Türkçe اردو فارسى
Logo
Latest News
Business

Saudi Private Sector Enters Phase of Moderate Growth

Construction taking place at a project in Saudi Arabia, as the private sector records steady growth according to indicators from the Ministry of Economy and Planning (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Construction taking place at a project in Saudi Arabia, as the private sector records steady growth according to indicators from the Ministry of Economy and Planning (Asharq Al-Awsat)
TT
TT

Saudi Private Sector Enters Phase of Moderate Growth

Construction taking place at a project in Saudi Arabia, as the private sector records steady growth according to indicators from the Ministry of Economy and Planning (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Construction taking place at a project in Saudi Arabia, as the private sector records steady growth according to indicators from the Ministry of Economy and Planning (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Government indicators, recently released by the Ministry of Economy and Planning, reveal that the Saudi private sector is experiencing moderate growth, fostering optimism for a stable trajectory.

The absence of disruptive short-term factors contributes to this positive outlook, offering valuable insights into Saudi Arabia's economic landscape and its potential for future development.

At the end of 2022, the ministry launched a novel economic analysis index, known as MEPX, which acts as an anticipatory index aimed at monitoring, tracking, and analyzing economic indicators and data issued by official entities in the Kingdom.

According to the available information, following a period of expansion after the global coronavirus pandemic, which affected all countries, the ministry’s index has continued to rise in the first quarter of 2023, albeit at a slower pace.

The sub-components of MEPX reveal that indicators pertaining to the financial sector continue to decline due to tightened monetary policies, while indicators related to consumption and trade show stability.

MEPX is a unique composite index that simulates the business cycle of the private sector, tracking its periodic fluctuations.

It incorporates a set of high-frequency economic indicators and analyzes them mathematically and statistically.

The index is designed to predict turning points in the business cycle of companies and institutions.

It is not intended to forecast the level of gross domestic product (GDP) or its overall growth rate.

Instead, its focus lies in differentiating between expansionary and contractionary phases and extrapolating their future trajectory.

MEPX also tracks ten economic factors classified into four categories, consumers, firms, and the financial and trade sectors. It provides regular, in-depth analysis of the Kingdom’s private sector business cycles through advanced econometrics techniques.

The insights and analysis gathered by MEPX will enable the ministry to further support the Kingdom’s economic policymaking and strategies based on emerging data, market trends and fluctuations.

Most Viewed

 
 
Business

Treasury Chief Says US May 'Unsanction' Iran Oil Already Being Shipped

Ships line up in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Khor Fakkan, United Arab Emirates, Wednesday, March 11, 2026. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)
Ships line up in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Khor Fakkan, United Arab Emirates, Wednesday, March 11, 2026. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)
TT
TT

Treasury Chief Says US May 'Unsanction' Iran Oil Already Being Shipped

Ships line up in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Khor Fakkan, United Arab Emirates, Wednesday, March 11, 2026. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)
Ships line up in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Khor Fakkan, United Arab Emirates, Wednesday, March 11, 2026. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday that Washington might "unsanction" Iranian oil that is already being shipped, as energy prices soar due to the war in the Middle East.

Bessent's comments to Fox Business came as oil and gas prices made a renewed surge after Iran hit the world's biggest liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility in Qatar and threatened to destroy the region's energy infrastructure, AFP reported.

Bessent added in the interview that the US government could also release more oil from its strategic reserves.

US President Donald Trump's administration has been scrambling to rein in rocketing energy costs after US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28.

Tehran's retaliation brought commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to a virtual halt, snarling energy supply chains.

Around a fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas passes through the critical waterway during peacetime.

Already, international benchmark Brent surged 10 percent earlier before easing to a 5.0 percent increase at $112.76 per barrel.

Recently, the United States also temporarily allowed the sale of sanctioned Russian oil that is at sea. On Wednesday, Trump temporarily waived a century-old maritime shipping law in an attempt to help ease energy prices.

Business

UK Wage Growth Slows to Weakest in 5 Years

FILED - 17 February 2016, United Kingdom, London: A Job Centre Plus is pictured in this file photo from February 17, 2016. Photo: Philip Toscano/PA Wire/dpa
FILED - 17 February 2016, United Kingdom, London: A Job Centre Plus is pictured in this file photo from February 17, 2016. Photo: Philip Toscano/PA Wire/dpa
TT
TT

UK Wage Growth Slows to Weakest in 5 Years

FILED - 17 February 2016, United Kingdom, London: A Job Centre Plus is pictured in this file photo from February 17, 2016. Photo: Philip Toscano/PA Wire/dpa
FILED - 17 February 2016, United Kingdom, London: A Job Centre Plus is pictured in this file photo from February 17, 2016. Photo: Philip Toscano/PA Wire/dpa

British wages rose at their slowest pace since late 2020 in the three months to January, according to official data which also suggested a weakening in employment might have bottomed out before the start of the war in the Middle East.

The figures would normally boost bets on the Bank of England cutting interest rates. But the central bank is widely expected to signal at 1200 GMT that it is waiting to see the impact of the war on Britain's economy before deciding its next move.

Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said Thursday's data would not change the BoE Monetary Policy Committee's immediate views.

"Priorities have shifted, with MPC members set to turn their attention to the new upside risks to the inflation outlook," she said. "This could see interest rates staying higher for longer, raising the prospect of a more pronounced loosening in the labor market over the coming months."

Last ⁠week ONS data ⁠showed zero growth in Britain's economy in January, but a surge in oil prices means an expected fall in inflation back towards its 2% target in April may prove more fleeting than the BoE had hoped.

The Office for National Statistics said regular earnings, which exclude bonuses, rose by 3.8% in the November-to-January period, the smallest increase since the three months to November 2020 and down from 4.1% in the final quarter of 2025.

Economists polled by Reuters had mostly expected regular pay growth of 4.0%. Total pay growth, which includes bonuses, showed a similar trend, slowing to 3.9%.

The ONS data also ⁠showed Britain's unemployment rate - which is calculated from a survey that the ONS is still overhauling - held at 5.2%, its highest since the COVID-19 pandemic period but below a median forecast in the Reuters poll for a rise to 5.3%.

Unemployment for 16-24 year olds - a key focus of government concern - edged down to 16.0% from an 11-year high of 16.1% in the final quarter of 2025.

Separate, more timely tax office data, also released on Thursday, showed the number of people in payrolled employment rose by a provisional estimate of 20,000 people between January and February.

In January, payrolls rose by a revised estimate of 6,000 compared with a provisional estimate of a fall of 11,000.

The latest data and revisions make it the first time that there have been three consecutive monthly rises in payrolled employment since May 2024.

"Today's labor market data will make for some positive reading. After nearly a year of disappointment, signs of stabilization are emerging," Sanjay Raja, ⁠chief UK economist at Deutsche ⁠Bank, said.

Until this month, the BoE had been trying to gauge whether lingering inflation heat in the labor market or a weakening of hiring in recent months posed the bigger risk to the economy.

But new inflation pressures have emerged, caused by the jump in energy prices after the start of the war in the Middle East.

The BoE is expected to keep borrowing costs on hold on Thursday at the end of the MPC's March meeting which, until recently, had been expected to result in a quarter-point rate cut.

The ONS data showed private sector annual regular wage growth - a measure of inflation heat closely watched by the BoE - slowed to 3.3% in the three months to January from 3.4% in the three months to December, also its weakest since late 2020.

Last month, the BoE said pay growth needed to be around 3.25% to keep inflation at its 2% target.

Deutsche Bank's Raja said the figures showed wage growth was slowing by slightly more than the BoE had forecast, offering some relief from the worries about a new energy price shock coming from the US-Israeli war on Iran.

"This, we think, can allow the MPC to remain cool-headed as we brace for another inflation wave - at least for now," he said.

Business

Morgan Stanley Joins Peers in Pushing Back Fed Cut Forecasts on Inflation Fears

FILE PHOTO: Morgan Stanley logo appears in this illustration taken December 1, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Morgan Stanley logo appears in this illustration taken December 1, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
TT
TT

Morgan Stanley Joins Peers in Pushing Back Fed Cut Forecasts on Inflation Fears

FILE PHOTO: Morgan Stanley logo appears in this illustration taken December 1, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Morgan Stanley logo appears in this illustration taken December 1, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

Morgan Stanley on Thursday joined Goldman Sachs and Barclays in pushing back its forecast for the US ​Federal Reserve's next interest rate cut to September from June after the central bank flagged inflationary risks amid the Middle East conflict.

The Wall Street brokerage now expects quarter-point reductions in September and December, revising its earlier forecast of reductions in June and September.

"In the near term, ‌higher energy prices ‌will push up overall inflation, ​but ‌it ⁠is ​too soon ⁠to know the scope and duration of the potential effects on the economy," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a press conference after the central bank kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday.

New projections show that Fed policymakers as a ⁠group anticipate the Federal Open Market Committee ‌will cut the policy rate ‌by a quarter percentage point ​before the end ‌of the year, while major Wall Street firms ‌still expect two rate cuts.

"A cautious Fed means delay. The primary risk to our view remains that rate cuts come later or not at all," Morgan ‌Stanley strategists said in a note.
"In the other direction, a second-round surge ⁠in oil ⁠prices could mean activity and labor markets weaken, prompting cuts."

Oil prices have climbed above $100 a barrel due to the ongoing Middle East conflict that has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade route that handles almost a fifth of the global oil trade.

Traders are currently pricing in over a 70% chance that the US central bank will ​hold rates steady ​in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.