What Happens Next after RSF Captures Sudan’s Nyala?

RSF forces in Sudan. (AP file photo)
RSF forces in Sudan. (AP file photo)
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What Happens Next after RSF Captures Sudan’s Nyala?

RSF forces in Sudan. (AP file photo)
RSF forces in Sudan. (AP file photo)

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) seized control of Sudan’s second largest city Nyala on Thursday, marking a possible turning point in the six-month conflict.

The RSF declared the capture of the army's 16th Infantry Division, the military’s western command center, effectively seizing Nyala, the capital of the state of South Darfur.

The development could pave the way for the RSF to advance on El Obeid city, capital of the besieged state of North Kordofan, and other Darfur states.

The development took place hours after the rival Sudanese parties returned to the negotiations table in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, in response to efforts led by the Kingdom and the United States to resolve the conflict.

The army has yet to confirm or deny the fall of its 16th Infantry Division. Several activists, who support the army, first denied the development, but later revealed that the military had “withdrawn” from its base to regroup ahead of the launch of an operation to reclaim it.

Activists and witnesses confirmed that Nyala is now under full RSF control.

The western command is the second most powerful military force in Sudan after the command headquarters in Khartoum. It is controlled by the 16th Infantry Division and comprised of eight military bases inside Nyala and 13 outside the city.

Concerns have arisen that the fall of Nyala could impact the negotiations in Jeddah, while some observers have said the development may strengthen the negotiations position of either party.

Economic and military significance

Nyala is Sudan’s second most significant economic hub after Khartoum given its geographic location. It largely relies on imports and exports. It boasts Nyala International Airport and a railway that connects it to the other parts of the country.

It is also located close to Chad, central African nations and South Sudan, making it a significant border trade hub. Nyala is home to the largest cattle market and boasts major agricultural crops, such as peanuts, millet and various fruits and vegetables. It is also the greatest exporter of gum arabic and cattle. Its residents rely on agriculture, herding and trade.

Retired Lieutenant Colonel Tayeb al-Malkabi told Asharq Al-Awsat that the capture of Nyala is significant given its military importance and since it is Sudan’s second largest city in terms of residents and economic resources.

It is the most important city in the whole of Darfur, he stressed.

Its capture allows the RSF to control various vital resources, as well as Nyala International Airport that can receive all types of aircraft and offer logistic aviation services.

Malkabi said the fall of Nyala means the collapse of military camps and units. It allows the RSF to recruit and train more members in complete security.

He added that RSF now enters a new phase of the war in which it has gained greater military, economic and political strength.

Journalist Ezzeldin Dahab, who hails from Nyala, said the RSF has claimed a victory in the war against the army.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the RSF now faces the challenge of demonstrating its ability in providing security and services to the residents and returning life to normal.



Anxiety Rises in DR Congo Capital as M23 Rebels Advance in East 

Residents venture out onto the streets following clashes at Kadutu Market in Bukavu on February 18, 2025. (AFP)
Residents venture out onto the streets following clashes at Kadutu Market in Bukavu on February 18, 2025. (AFP)
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Anxiety Rises in DR Congo Capital as M23 Rebels Advance in East 

Residents venture out onto the streets following clashes at Kadutu Market in Bukavu on February 18, 2025. (AFP)
Residents venture out onto the streets following clashes at Kadutu Market in Bukavu on February 18, 2025. (AFP)

As Rwanda-backed rebels strolled through the streets of eastern Democratic Republic of Congo's second-largest city, President Felix Tshisekedi's office claimed it was actually still controlled by his army and "valiant" allied forces.

It was the latest jarring move from the 61-year-old leader that has fueled a sense of worry and panic 1,600 km (1,000 miles) away in the capital Kinshasa, where some residents are looking to move their families abroad amid open talk of a coup.

"There was never any question of fighting in Bukavu. It was clear to all the people on the ground that the Rwandans and their auxiliaries were going to make their entry," said one army general who expressed bafflement at a statement issued by the president's office on Sunday.

Tshisekedi, he added, "doesn't have the right sources."

Anxiety is visible on the streets of Kinshasa as the army puts up limited resistance against the M23 group's advance and residents question whether Tshisekedi grasps the risk it poses.

Embassies have begun using armored vehicles for trips to the airport and sending some staff across the Congo River to Brazzaville, capital of Republic of Congo.

Three Kinshasa-based government officials told Reuters they were making arrangements to get their families out of the country.

Banker Matondo Arnold said he had already sent his family to Brazzaville after the rebels seized Goma, eastern Congo's biggest city, in late January. "We never imagined Goma could fall," he said.

As talk about a possible coup spread, Justice Minister Constant Mutamba said on X that Congolese "will not accept any coup that involves the Rwandan army to destabilize the country's institutions."

But even a member of Tshisekedi's Sacred Union coalition said the anxiety was unmistakable.

"Oh yes, it's panic. Some people are desperate and they are courting embassies" in search of an exit.

SUMMIT SNUB

This M23 advance is the gravest escalation in more than a decade of the long-running conflict in eastern Congo, rooted in the spillover of Rwanda's 1994 genocide into Congo and the struggle for control of Congo's vast minerals resources.

Rwanda rejects allegations from Congo, the United Nations and Western powers that it supports M23 with arms and troops. It says it is defending itself against the threat from a Hutu militia, which it says is fighting with the Congolese military.

As the hunt for a diplomatic resolution stalls, with Tshisekedi refusing to negotiate with the rebels, his camp faults the international community for failing to stand up to Rwanda by imposing sanctions.

"It's not a bad thing to refuse dialogue with an armed group like M23. The M23 is Rwanda," said a lawmaker close to the president. "Why doesn't the West do anything?"

Tshisekedi has skipped two African-organized meetings this month addressing the fighting - a joint summit in Dar es Salaam of Southern and Eastern African leaders and the annual African Union summit in Addis Ababa.

Instead, he travelled to the Munich Security Conference where he accused his predecessor Joseph Kabila of sponsoring M23's military campaign, which Kabila's camp denied.

The decision by Tshisekedi, who spent much of his life in Brussels, to fly to Europe drew derision from the Congolese political establishment.

"The fact that an African president snubs the African Union summit and prefers instead a security conference in Europe is indicative of who sustains him," said one former senior official.

Some members of Congo's fractious opposition are openly predicting Tshisekedi will not last.

"His lack of legitimacy is now proven, making him less and less listened to and more and more rejected by the population every day," said Olivier Kamitatu, a Kabila-era minister and spokesperson for opposition politician Moise Katumbi.

"Tshisekedi did not understand the issues of the country and the region. He did not have enough intellectual heft to lead Congo," said Martin Fayulu, who came in second in the 2018 election that brought Tshisekedi to power.

But it is unclear who could pose the most legitimate challenge to Tshisekedi, said Congolese analyst Bob Kabamba of the University of Liege in Belgium.

"With the capture of Goma and Bukavu, no one is sure of Tshisekedi's ability to control the security and political situation," he said.